December 21-22nd Winter Storm Part 2

[stormtrackertf]

Didn't really throw a glimmer of anything out this way

A step in the right direction is a glimmer of hope, at least in my opinion. Much like seeing those slow trends to the west were a sign of something we've seen happen way too many times.

[Snowstorms]

Would you say the same is true for Toronto?

Still time left for things to change. Alot of uncertainty at this point In time.

[extremewx52]

Yeah, I definitely have seen that. I guess it's just how the model outputs snow, or thinks it's snow in the case of water equivalent

From everything I have looked at in wxbell it looks like they use any 850mb temp less than 3 C for all snow. That is why snowfall amounts are so high and so far south.

[TimChgo9]

Skilling is on in 5 minutes. I'm confident he's not going to say Sunday will be sunny.  

 

EDIT: The damn Bulls are on instead. Oh well. 

I thought it looked like an odd forecast. Looking around the web, no one is forecasting 23 and sunny for Sunday.  But then, Skilling did pick up the GHD storm a good 24 hours before anyone else, when the GFS was still showing it as a low cutting across the South, and heading up the coast.  Not saying that is what he is doing here, but, it really seems out of place.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

edit: I think the 0z EURO/GFS are going to have to show incipient signs of going back to the east. Otherwise, our chances of sig snow are next to none.

But there's still the chance of significant icing?

[cyclone77]

To me the 00z NAM has that weird look to it the earlier GFS runs had.  Very underdeveloped deformation band in the cold sector. 

[Hoosier]

Bouncing around a bit indeed. But marginal shouldn't be an issue you'd think. Coldest of rains though.

 

 

Gonna depend on rates but not that hard to envision a scenario where it gets a bit dicey prior to heavy rates overwhelming things.  

[DAFF]

I counted 22 hours of red over Windsor on this run. Yikes.... If the runs continue I might reserve a wood chipper for clean ups in the region.

[snowstormcanuck]

But there's still the chance of significant icing?

 

OB...have you been viewing models I haven't? 12z/18z GFS/12z GEM/12z EURO all had a major ice storm hitting Toronto. We may have maxed out the NW trend. I don't know where this concern is coming from.

[cmichweather]

gfs is looking gross again for the Michigan posters. 

[Geos]

Skilling is on in 5 minutes. I'm confident he's not going to say Sunday will be sunny.  

 

EDIT: The damn Bulls are on instead. Oh well. 

 

That's alright Skilling will be able to analyze more of the 0z suite.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

OB...have you been viewing models I haven't? 12z/18z GFS/12z GEM/12z EURO all had a major ice storm hitting Toronto. We may have maxed out the NW trend. I don't know where this concern is coming from.

You're right. They're all showing significant icing. My mistake.

[snowstormcanuck]

0z EURO holds the final nail.

[cyclone77]

GFS would be pretty decent for northern IL.  Freezing rain/sleet followed by a good 3-5" of cement. 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Wow, take a look at the QPF in Toronto for this storm, as per the 0z GFS.

[Snowstorms]

Wow, take a look at the QPF in Toronto for this storm, as per the 0z GFS.

 About half of it is rain. 850s around 8-9C -__- lol 

[Toronto4]

0z EURO holds the final nail.

Yeah, I'm getting the sense that snow will be tough, if not impossible, to come by. Even sampling of the northern piece of energy won't be enough (southern piece is too strong). However, that might be enough to have all of the precip fall as freezing rain in Toronto instead of it changing to rain during the day on Sunday.

[snowstormcanuck]

Wow, take a look at the QPF in Toronto for this storm, as per the 0z GFS.

 

And still a fair bit of ice too but barring something spectacular from the EURO I think the risk of a snowstorm for us has passed.

[harrisale]

0z EURO holds the final nail.

 

Mhm. Looks like I'll be up until 1 again. May be basing travel plans on this run. Was supposed to leave Friday for Huntsville, and return Sunday night... bloody terrible time to be travelling.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

And still a fair bit of ice too but barring something spectacular from the EURO I think the risk of a snowstorm for us has passed.

A shame really. Such potential. Oh well, as I said, I'd rather have snow during the buildup to Christmas rather than just on Christmas Eve/Day.

[L.B. LaForce]

From everything I have looked at in wxbell it looks like they use any 850mb temp less than 3 C for all snow. That is why snowfall amounts are so high and so far south.

Nah, its definitely water equivalent, I asked him one time, and plotted it myself once and they matched up. I just don't know who to actually believe, all model sites' snowfall maps are different from one another.

[Minnesota Meso]

I haven't read many of the pages for part 2 of this system because of work restraints, but I did follow most of part 1, it was a fascinating read, however something was really eating at me but I didn't know what it was until I woke up this morning and the light bulb went off, but didn't have time to post it.  And that was the weakening of the negative EPO which should slow the intrusion of cold air at the mid levels and allow this storm to intensify as it moves towards the lakes.  This is well depicted by the 18/12z run of the GGEM, notice where it forms a H7 low over NE IA and SE MN as shown by the wind barbs.

 

http://grib2.com/gem/CONUS_GEM_700_GPHTMPRH_102HR.gif

[Chicago WX]

NAM text surface temps are probably a bunch of gobbledygook, but that's some nice cold rain for LAF. With 850 temps peaking at 11.4C. WAA out of control. Crap load of rain. 3 hour totals/intervals are impressive. 

 

66 12/21 18Z 32 29 194 6 0.01 0.00 549 561 6.5 -15.5 1014 100 014OVC391 0.0 12.2
69 12/21 21Z 33 32 148 2 0.10 0.00 552 561 6.6 -14.9 1012 100 -RA 011OVC389 0.0 4.7
72 12/22 00Z 33 33 59 7 0.24 0.00 553 562 6.4 -14.5 1011 100 RA 012OVC372 0.0 3.8
75 12/22 03Z 34 34 57 7 0.72 0.00 555 563 6.5 -12.3 1009 100 +RA 009OVC367 0.0 2.3
78 12/22 06Z 34 33 56 10 0.63 0.00 558 561 10.6 -12.5 1004 100 RA 009OVC393 0.0 3.0
81 12/22 09Z 35 35 20 9 0.67 0.11 560 560 11.4 -11.4 999 100 TSRA 006OVC395 0.0 0.9
84 12/22 12Z 34 34 61 4 0.46 0.09 557 557 10.8 -13.8 1000 100 TSRA 008OVC336 0.0 2.3

 

 

[Hoosier]

NAM text surface temps are probably a bunch of gobbledygook, but that's some nice cold rain for LAF. With 850 temps peaking at 11.4C. WAA out of control. Crap load of rain. 3 hour totals/intervals are impressive. 

 

66 12/21 18Z 32 29 194 6 0.01 0.00 549 561 6.5 -15.5 1014 100 014OVC391 0.0 12.2

69 12/21 21Z 33 32 148 2 0.10 0.00 552 561 6.6 -14.9 1012 100 -RA 011OVC389 0.0 4.7

72 12/22 00Z 33 33 59 7 0.24 0.00 553 562 6.4 -14.5 1011 100 RA 012OVC372 0.0 3.8

75 12/22 03Z 34 34 57 7 0.72 0.00 555 563 6.5 -12.3 1009 100 +RA 009OVC367 0.0 2.3

78 12/22 06Z 34 33 56 10 0.63 0.00 558 561 10.6 -12.5 1004 100 RA 009OVC393 0.0 3.0

81 12/22 09Z 35 35 20 9 0.67 0.11 560 560 11.4 -11.4 999 100 TSRA 006OVC395 0.0 0.9

84 12/22 12Z 34 34 61 4 0.46 0.09 557 557 10.8 -13.8 1000 100 TSRA 008OVC336 0.0 2.3

 

 

00z GGEM rolling in is still much quicker to bring precip to our area.   Hmmm.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

00z GGEM rolling in is still much quicker to bring precip to our area.   Hmmm.

The Canadian 0z seems to be taking awhile to load after hour 49

[Hoosier]

[Chicago WX]

00z GGEM rolling in is still much quicker to bring precip to our area.   Hmmm.

 

Looks weird. It has a 1004mb low over Dayton at 0z Sunday...with another low sitting behind in TX. 

[Hoosier]

Looks weird. It has a 1004mb low over Dayton at 0z Sunday...with another low sitting behind in TX. 

 

 

Better sampling can't come soon enough.

[WestCoaster]

Hoping for rain for YYZ. Rain > ZR any day. 

 

I gave up on the chance for snow a while ago.

[Chicago WX]

Better sampling can't come soon enough.

 

Wait a minute, I thought this thing was sealed up with today's 12z runs?