snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Although it's east of its 18z run it seems to be pretty close to where the EURO/GFS at 12z had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 East but thermals aren't too different....still warm. thermals have been marginal since the get go. Hard to see this as more than a inconsequential wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Looks like the NAM is just cold enough here. Not alot of precip though. Well maybe it is a bit snowy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 The bad news is that the temp profiles still look pretty atrocious for snow unless you're pretty far north. lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The bad news is that the temp profiles still look pretty atrocious for snow unless you're pretty far north. Also not much qpf at all where 850 mb temps are cold enough for snow. This run would be a bigger threat for zr/ip for more of the LOT cwa. Much of northern IL away from Chicago remains below freezing during the heaviest precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Nice run. I should say better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Yet another correction back to the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The vort shearing out and flying northeast is a problem for sure. It's not ejecting out and really intensifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Yet another correction back to the right. Yes, however temperatures are still marginal. We would need more precip on the NW side and a better temperature profile. The HP across the Prairies is too slow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Also not much qpf at all where 850 mb temps are cold enough for snow. This run would be a bigger threat for zr/ip for more of the LOT cwa. Much of northern IL away from Chicago remains below freezing during the heaviest precip. so snow for all of us around Chicagoland, plain rain for Alek on the heat island. Sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Yes, however temperatures are still marginal. We would need more precip on the NW side and a better temperature profile. The HP across the Prairies is too slow.. The temperatures have been marginal for days with this system, unless you are looking for ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Part of the reason why I have issues with some TV mets, or at least, those who produce the weather segment, is that kind of thing. Channel 7 was pretty much saying things were still uncertain, but had "wintry mix" in their forecast for Saturday, and "Snow showers?" for Sunday.... I feel pretty fortunate because even though I am in a small town and my local TV station (WGEM out of Quincy) is small I feel like we have some pretty darn good on air Mets. For the last two days they've cautioned about over doing it with the amounts and they are just doing a pretty good job in general of dissecting the situation. They are also pretty great with severe weather. I think we are lucky here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Well, in this case, the coldest air is going to right at the surface. As you gain elevation, temps will warm. So being on top of the escarpment will be a detriment rather than a help. That's why a place like Ottawa is so prone to heavy icing. It's in a valley. I guess speaking strictly in terms of Hamilton, I'd rather be away from the NE winds off the warm Lk water, but I'm thinking Flamborough would be the best spot (more limited lake influence + less elevation). This. I've lived it and know it. god this is what makes this hobby so awesome. The twists and turns are unmatched. This looks to be an edge of your seat thriller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 lol... Well, then, InstantWxMaps and WxBell are using two different algorithms to plot snow...ughh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Also not much qpf at all where 850 mb temps are cold enough for snow. This run would be a bigger threat for zr/ip for more of the LOT cwa. Much of northern IL away from Chicago remains below freezing during the heaviest precip. Yeah, soundings look incredibly tricky...even areas farther south like IKK flirt with freezing during quite a bit of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 lol... Well, then, InstantWxMaps and WxBell are using two different algorithms to plot snow...ughh WxBell algorithm has been declared trash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 Anyone else noticing the differences in the Rockies at 51 hrs? Yea, the changes were fairly significant. Quicker northern stream being one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 very close to punting this one... 1: the antecedent air mass is junk 2: southerly 850/700 vectors are incredible, even GHD with a real deal antecedent arctic airmass saw over performing WAA 3: the northern stream energy is weak...we aren't talking about a major arctic front. Grasping for straws talking point. 4. neg tilt troughs with a wide open gulf flow and east coast ridge always cut hard. Snowstorm-wise, it's over and done with for Detroit. Rarely, given the synoptic setup, do these types of storms trend back to a favorable solution for Detroit from the pseudo-consensus presently. It can happen, but it's unlikely. But you guys in Chicago are still within a shiftable range for a decent snowstorm. It's way too early to think about punting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 WxBell algorithm has been declared trash Ehhh, IDK, InstantWxMaps is using categorical snow whereas WxBell is using water equivalent of accumulated snow. Categorical snow is instantaneous and only valid at each output time, so I would bet on the water equivalent being more accurate - assuming your removing the initial amount and the melting amount between each period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 WxBell algorithm has been declared trash Ehhh, IDK, InstantWxMaps is using categorical snow whereas WxBell is using water equivalent of accumulated snow. Categorical snow is instantaneous and only valid at each output time, so I would bet on the water equivalent being more accurate - assuming your removing the initial amount and the melting amount between each period. It's shown snow before in temp profiles that pretty clearly don't support it. Which is particularly relevant with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Not punting yet... but definitely on the field, with the ball under my arm, doing warm up kicks, just in case. Question: Post-storm, it's obvious arctic air moves in again, are we going to go cold and dry now, or, do we retain an active pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Snowstorm-wise, it's over and done with for Detroit. Rarely, given the synoptic setup, do these types of storms trend back to a favorable solution for Detroit from the pseudo-consensus presently. It can happen, but it's unlikely. But you guys in Chicago are still within a shiftable range for a decent snowstorm. It's way too early to think about punting. Would you say the same is true for Toronto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Would you say the same is true for Toronto? edit: I think the 0z EURO/GFS are going to have to show incipient signs of going back to the east. Otherwise, our chances of sig snow are next to none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 It's shown snow before in temp profiles that pretty clearly don't support it. Which is particularly relevant with this storm. Yeah, I definitely have seen that. I guess it's just how the model outputs snow, or thinks it's snow in the case of water equivalent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Okay. What are Skilling's people thinking? Looking at my WGN forecast app, I have the following: Friday: Snow possible, high of 34. Saturday: Snow Showers, high of 30. Sunday, Sunny, high of 23 Channel 7, and Taft's crowd are saying: Friday: Cloudy ,36 Saturday, Rain/Snow 34, Sunday: Rain/Snow 34. How does Channel 9 figure that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Of course now the NAM has to throw a glimmer of hope into the fold so I can get my hopes up a little bit for a miracle, all before giving another warm wet slap to the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Yeah, soundings look incredibly tricky...even areas farther south like IKK flirt with freezing during quite a bit of the precip. Illustration Here is a NAM precip type map valid 03z Sunday. For those who don't know where IKK is, it's about 40-50 miles due south of Chicago. 32F contour is well northwest of there...no danger of ice, right? Let's check the forecast sounding. Small residual pool of below freezing air above the surface with temps near the surface hovering very close to freezing. Minor changes either way can be significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Yeah, soundings look incredibly tricky...even areas farther south like IKK flirt with freezing during quite a bit of the precip. Bouncing around a bit indeed. But marginal shouldn't be an issue you'd think. Coldest of rains though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Of course now the NAM has to throw a glimmer of hope into the fold so I can get my hopes up a little bit for a miracle, all before giving another warm wet slap to the face. Didn't really throw a glimmer of anything out this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Okay. What are Skilling's people thinking? Looking at my WGN forecast app, I have the following: Friday: Snow possible, high of 34. Saturday: Snow Showers, high of 30. Sunday, Sunny, high of 23 Channel 7, and Taft's crowd are saying: Friday: Cloudy ,36 Saturday, Rain/Snow 34, Sunday: Rain/Snow 34. How does Channel 9 figure that? Skilling is on in 5 minutes. I'm confident he's not going to say Sunday will be sunny. EDIT: The damn Bulls are on instead. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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