Whitelakeroy Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Have a scheduled flight from Detroit to Boston Sunday afternoon... with the insane amount of shear depicted in the upper atmosphere (110knots+ at 500mb), I'm thinking about canceling... I hate turbulence... No worries that is just a short flight ... try 14+ hour flights to Japan/China Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 STEBO EARNING RESPECT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Difference is this is December and it's been quite cold. Don't have insolation or warm ground temps to bail us out. Honestly I am a bit surprised how many NWS offices jumped immediately with the 12z runs, really only DTX and a couple others kept things in check by mentioning that it can correct back some. Sadly with the 2 pieces going through data sparse regions of the network is just going to complicate things even more. The best two posts of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The best two posts of the day. Pfff...not even my best post of this hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 STEBO EARNING RESPECT! +1... DTX has been doing a very good job this winter season with there forecasts, tone and discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Why would you say that? No real solid evidence, but from what I've seen areas of higher elevation are much more prone to significant ice events, a lot of that can be attributed to the lake keeping areas below the escarpment around the Golden Horseshoe warm enough to limit overall ice accretion. You do mention a good point though, with the snow pack in place warm ground temps shouldn't be as much of an issue. 0z runs will definitely be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Why would you say that?People make too much of a big deal about the escarpment honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 No real solid evidence, but from what I've seen areas of higher elevation are much more prone to significant ice events, a lot of that can be attributed to the lake keeping areas below the escarpment around the Golden Horseshoe warm enough to limit overall ice accretion. You do mention a good point though, with the snow pack in place warm ground temps shouldn't be as much of an issue. 0z runs will definitely be interesting. People make too much of a big deal about the escarpment honestly. Well, in this case, the coldest air is going to right at the surface. As you gain elevation, temps will warm. So being on top of the escarpment will be a detriment rather than a help. That's why a place like Ottawa is so prone to heavy icing. It's in a valley. I guess speaking strictly in terms of Hamilton, I'd rather be away from the NE winds off the warm Lk water, but I'm thinking Flamborough would be the best spot (more limited lake influence + less elevation). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Well, in this case, the coldest air is going to right at the surface. As you gain elevation, temps will warm. So being on top of the escarpment will be a detriment rather than a help. That's why a place like Ottawa is so prone to heavy icing. It's in a valley. I guess speaking strictly in terms of Hamilton, I'd rather be away from the NE winds off the warm Lk water, but I'm thinking Flamborough would be the best spot (more limited lake influence + less elevation). Another good point SSC, I'm just getting handle on models (have been working 12+ hour days for the past week). Noticed the 12z GEM had 4-5cm of ice accretion for a lot of Southern Ontario.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The magical mystery tour continues on...coming to a venue near you...soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 With regards to snowmelt, temps are only one part of the equation, you've also got to factor in dewpoints. If you've got 40 degrees with a 15 degree dewpoint, then you'll melt slower than 35 degrees with a 35 degree dewpoint. Get dewpoints above 40 and snow disappears rather rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I think here we'll touch 50F. I'm going with over 4" for IND. Going to be a crazy temp profile across IN. I'll take the under on 4" storm total for LAF. Though I guess that image does include Thursday and Friday's rains. Still, under. Also going to go way over on my current p&c forecast high temps for Saturday and Sunday. Saturday: Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 43. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Sunday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 00z NAM looks a tad quicker with the cutoff at 33 hours compared to 18z. Might just be noise level stuff though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 0z NAM coming in hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 So let me get this right. 2 inches of rain, 3 days of 40 degrees+, and a snow depth of over 2 feet with places just south of me having a snow depth over 3 feet. This should be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Honestly I am a bit surprised how many NWS offices jumped immediately with the 12z runs, really only DTX and a couple others kept things in check by mentioning that it can correct back some. Sadly with the 2 pieces going through data sparse regions of the network is just going to complicate things even more. We have to wait until the northern stream is sampled. The better half just got home, talking about potential flooding, and heavy rain all day Sunday. So now, she is all worried about the basement, the backyard, and the stairwell to the basement walk-out, which I have to clear out. She heard up to 5" of rain for Sunday. So, I tried to tell her all solutions to this are still on the table......... I still have to clean out the stairwell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 very close to punting this one... 1: the antecedent air mass is junk 2: southerly 850/700 vectors are incredible, even GHD with a real deal antecedent arctic airmass saw over performing WAA 3: the northern stream energy is weak...we aren't talking about a major arctic front. Grasping for straws talking point. 4. neg tilt troughs with a wide open gulf flow and east coast ridge always cut hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 3: the northern stream energy is weak...we aren't talking about a major arctic front. Grasping for straws talking point. Actually there is an arctic front with the northern stream...It just lags significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Actually there is an arctic front with the northern stream...It just lags significantly. I'm talking about the weak piece that stands a chance in hell of actually being a player not the lagger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 The NAM is coming east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 0z NAM is a good bit slower than the 18z GFS and digging a bit further south than the 18z NAM at 57hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Anyone else noticing the differences in the Rockies at 51 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 The NAM is coming east. Way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 NAM looks to be digging more in the SW and is a bit faster. This may go colder/east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 I'm talking about the weak piece that stands a chance in hell of actually being a player not the lagger Yea, that one doesn't have much. I'm just saying in general that there is an arctic push with the northern stream...Just that it does nothing for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 yikes....NAM quite a bit more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 god this is what makes this hobby so awesome. The twists and turns are unmatched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 just when I was about to say 'third and long'..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The bad news is that the temp profiles still look pretty atrocious for snow unless you're pretty far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 East but thermals aren't too different....still warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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