Hoosier Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 18z GFS ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I'm driving from Chicago to MSP through Madison on Saturday night. Talk about interesting! I'll be providing updates on my potential nightmare of a drive. Just get a hotel in Madison and enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 From Tom Skilling's Facebook...he must be reading this board A few thoughts before getting back to work here. We're 3 days away from this system. This is one set of runs and this, like most major winter systems, this one is a complex piece of work. We caution with each one of these winter systems NOT to draw early conclusions--to watch the evolution of the forecast and keep an open mind. The fact is, nature may yet hold surprises. There's a very human tendency to react to the most recent runs and not view the latest model forecast cycles as part of a larger picture which had emerged over days. Lots can--and often does-- happen in 3 days. Model forecasts bounce around--that's common--almost to be expected-- with complex winter weather systems because THEY ARE so complex. There are important aspects of this system's evolution yet to nail down. It's as wrong to assume the current take on this system by models is any more correct than those we shared with you yesterday. These are forecasts based on the best data available at the time--but newer data is completely capable of sending forecast conclusions in still other directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 225kts at 225mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 What a nightmare this is shaping up to be. Pre-Christmas rain is bad enough, add in flood potential and you have the recipe for a disgusting setup.The only way this could be worse would be if there were enough ice mixed in somewhere to knock out the power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 What a nightmare this is shaping up to be. Pre-Christmas rain is bad enough, add in flood potential and you have the recipe for a disgusting setup. The only way this could be worse would be if there were enough ice mixed in somewhere to knock out the power. Ice potential is still very real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 It would be fun to have baroclinic on board for this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Apparently there was an ice storm in Ottawa on Christmas Eve 1986 that knocked out power. People couldn't cook their Christmas dinners due to not having any power! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Lol. All of our options are still on the table. I would wait a few runs before making up our minds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 LOT posted their web briefing recently. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=youtube_webbriefing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 What a nightmare this is shaping up to be. Pre-Christmas rain is bad enough, add in flood potential and you have the recipe for a disgusting setup. The only way this could be worse would be if there were enough ice mixed in somewhere to knock out the power. Here's a link to a story about the Christmas Eve ice storm of 1986 that I was referring to. http://www.cbc.ca/archives/categories/environment/extreme-weather/the-ice-storm-of-1998/ottawa-ice-storm-of-1986.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 You guys are certainly making this sound apocalyptic. Based purely on the latest EURO output, 2m temps seem way too marginal (-0.2C) to allow for such a copius amount of precip (0.86") to freeze on surfaces properly. Then we steadily warm up to a whopping +7.3C in the next 12 hours. There would definitely be some accretion but I think it would have a hard time really building up beyond the 12Z mark Sunday. We saw this in the April icestorm in Guelph where ice accretion at -1C could not keep up with the rainfall rate and a lot of the damage was mitigated. Of course there would still be numerous issues given the busy time of year but I doubt we would see the entire 0.86" + 0.11" of water turn to ice. Also this is base purely on this run of the EURO, any subsequent colder runs could spell trouble and the other models will need to be taken into account as well (ex. the GEM has been quite steady on a heavy ice event). Difference is this is December and it's been quite cold. Don't have insolation or warm ground temps to bail us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Probably been mentioned a 1000 times but 18z GFS did shift back to the right some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The rare double flag at 850 mb in eastern OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Going to be a WET weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 NBC 5 Chicago throwing out snow amounts, and stating this will be a rain event for LOT. Seriously. No mention of the fact the storm is still 4 days away and things could change. Not the best thing to do with millions travelling this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 NBC 5 Chicago throwing out snow amounts, and stating this will be a rain event for LOT. Seriously. No mention of the fact the storm is still 4 days away and things could change. Not the best thing to do with millions travelling this weekend. Part of the reason why I have issues with some TV mets, or at least, those who produce the weather segment, is that kind of thing. Channel 7 was pretty much saying things were still uncertain, but had "wintry mix" in their forecast for Saturday, and "Snow showers?" for Sunday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Have a scheduled flight from Detroit to Boston Sunday afternoon... with the insane amount of shear depicted in the upper atmosphere (110knots+ at 500mb), I'm thinking about canceling... I hate turbulence... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Going to be a WET weekend! I'll take the under on 4" storm total for LAF. Though I guess that image does include Thursday and Friday's rains. Still, under. Also going to go way over on my current p&c forecast high temps for Saturday and Sunday. Saturday: Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 43. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Sunday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan45 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Part of the reason why I have issues with some TV mets, or at least, those who produce the weather segment, is that kind of thing. Channel 7 was pretty much saying things were still uncertain, but had "wintry mix" in their forecast for Saturday, and "Snow showers?" for Sunday.... I live near Toronto, ON..but my cottage is near Georgian Bay. Radio startion over there has a local met calling for "bucketloads of snow" with no mention of freezing rain being a possibility or anything. Dangerous, dangerous!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Now, after this storm passes, do we transition to cold and dry, or does the active pattern continue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The rare double flag at 850 mb in eastern OH GFS_3_2013121818_F90_WSPD_850_MB.png Going to be a WET weekend! qpf-pm.png Interesting to me is the main track of heavy moisture seems to be shifting to the east some today. I'm no weather expert but by following the 850 winds the origin of the winds would you get an idea of the colder section and where the tap line of gulf moisture and warmth sits. As per the snow melt idea. A ton of snow will melt but remember the snow sits on a frozen turkey of sorts and will fade much slower than in the spring when soil temps are on the rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I'll take the under on 4" storm total for LAF. Though I guess that image does include Thursday and Friday's rains. Still, under. Also going to go way over on my current p&c forecast high temps for Saturday and Sunday. Saturday: Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 43. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Sunday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Absolute soaker on the way. One uncertainty though is how quickly precip begins. GGEM has been bringing it in quicker on consecutive runs (in the form of zr). If we can get something in here early enough on Saturday then perhaps it could start as ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Absolute soaker on the way. One uncertainty though is how quickly precip begins. GGEM has been bringing it in quicker on consecutive runs (in the form of zr). If we can get something in here early enough on Saturday then perhaps it could start as ice. I noticed the Euro was fairly close to a little zr at the start. Exciting times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Current look at the dews. Moisture transport northward is gonna be incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 According to many of the NWS offices and just about ALL of the local mets, most of the subforum will see a heavy washout 35 degree rain. I just don't buy that scenario yet. Call me crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Honestly I am a bit surprised how many NWS offices jumped immediately with the 12z runs, really only DTX and a couple others kept things in check by mentioning that it can correct back some. Sadly with the 2 pieces going through data sparse regions of the network is just going to complicate things even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Agree 100%. Getting a historic ice threat is going to be difficult for the GTA. First of all you need thermals to line up perfectly or a lot of the QPF is spent on PL/SN/RN. If BL temps are too cold, you get more in the way of PL/SN with the initial burst of precip before a change over. If Sfc/BL temps torch then we get a cold rain after a period of ZR. I do however think that this period of ZR is going to be quite significant for the GTA which isn't used to these types of freezing rain accums(15-35mm potentially). The flow is lined up nicely for some significant ZR, even if its only about 60-80% of the total QPF for YYZ. Once you get north of about the 0.3" mark, you start getting into some major problems with downed power lines/trees in the GTA. Key is going to be that northern branch feature and how much CAD occurs at the surface. Definitely think parts of S ontario have a heightened risk of a potentially devastating ice storm with the guelph/ K-W/ brantford area up towards caledon/bolton/newmarket getting the worst of the ice. Areas above the escarpment will likely have the best potential at significant freezing rain. Just got home from work so am going to run through all the models to see exactly whats up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Areas above the escarpment will likely have the best potential at significant freezing rain. Just got home from work so am going to run through all the models to see exactly whats up. Why would you say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Honestly I am a bit surprised how many NWS offices jumped immediately with the 12z runs, really only DTX and a couple others kept things in check by mentioning that it can correct back some. Sadly with the 2 pieces going through data sparse regions of the network is just going to complicate things even more. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.