Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,587
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

December 21-22nd Winter Storm Part 2

Chicago Storm

By Chicago Storm,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

From Tom Skilling's Facebook...he must be reading this board  :guitar:

 


A few thoughts before getting back to work here. We're 3 days away from this system. This is one set of runs and this, like most major winter systems, this one is a complex piece of work. We caution with each one of these winter systems NOT to draw early conclusions--to watch the evolution of the forecast and keep an open mind. The fact is, nature may yet hold surprises. There's a very human tendency to react to the most recent runs and not view the latest model forecast cycles as part of a larger picture which had emerged over days. Lots can--and often does-- happen in 3 days. Model forecasts bounce around--that's common--almost to be expected-- with complex winter weather systems because THEY ARE so complex. There are important aspects of this system's evolution yet to nail down. It's as wrong to assume the current take on this system by models is any more correct than those we shared with you yesterday. These are forecasts based on the best data available at the time--but newer data is completely capable of sending forecast conclusions in still other directions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

Posted
Posted

What a nightmare this is shaping up to be. Pre-Christmas rain is bad enough, add in flood potential and you have the recipe for a disgusting setup.

The only way this could be worse would be if there were enough ice mixed in somewhere to knock out the power.

Here's a link to a story about the Christmas Eve ice storm of 1986 that I was referring to.

 

http://www.cbc.ca/archives/categories/environment/extreme-weather/the-ice-storm-of-1998/ottawa-ice-storm-of-1986.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites
snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

You guys are certainly making this sound apocalyptic. Based purely on the latest EURO output, 2m temps seem way too marginal (-0.2C) to allow for such a copius amount of precip (0.86") to freeze on surfaces properly. Then we steadily warm up to a whopping +7.3C in the next 12 hours. There would definitely be some accretion but I think it would have a hard time really building up beyond the 12Z mark Sunday. We saw this in the April icestorm in Guelph where ice accretion at -1C could not keep up with the rainfall rate and a lot of the damage was mitigated. Of course there would still be numerous issues given the busy time of year but I doubt we would see the entire 0.86" + 0.11" of water turn to ice.

 

Also this is base purely on this run of the EURO, any subsequent colder runs could spell trouble and the other models will need to be taken into account as well (ex. the GEM has been quite steady on a heavy ice event).

 

Difference is this is December and it's been quite cold. Don't have insolation or warm ground temps to bail us out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TimChgo9

TimChgo9

Posted
Posted

NBC 5 Chicago throwing out snow amounts, and stating this will be a rain event for LOT. Seriously. No mention of the fact the storm is still 4 days away and things could change. Not the best thing to do with millions travelling this weekend. 

Part of the reason why I have issues with some TV  mets, or at least, those who produce the weather segment, is that kind of thing.  Channel 7 was pretty much saying things were still uncertain, but had "wintry mix" in their forecast for Saturday, and "Snow showers?" for Sunday....

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

Going to be a WET weekend!  :frostymelt::flood::whistle:

 

I'll take the under on 4" storm total for LAF. Though I guess that image does include Thursday and Friday's rains. Still, under.

 

Also going to go way over on my current p&c forecast high temps for Saturday and Sunday.

 

Saturday: Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 43. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Sunday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ryan45

Ryan45

Posted
Posted

Part of the reason why I have issues with some TV  mets, or at least, those who produce the weather segment, is that kind of thing.  Channel 7 was pretty much saying things were still uncertain, but had "wintry mix" in their forecast for Saturday, and "Snow showers?" for Sunday....

I live near Toronto, ON..but my cottage is near Georgian Bay. Radio startion over there has a local met calling for "bucketloads of snow" with no mention of freezing rain being a possibility or anything. Dangerous, dangerous!!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
DAFF

DAFF

Posted
Posted

The rare double flag at 850 mb in eastern OH

 

attachicon.gifGFS_3_2013121818_F90_WSPD_850_MB.png

 

 

Going to be a WET weekend!  :frostymelt::flood::whistle:

 

attachicon.gifqpf-pm.png

Interesting to me is the main track of heavy moisture seems to be shifting to the east some today. I'm no weather expert but by following the 850 winds the origin of the winds would you get an idea of the colder section and where the tap line of gulf moisture and warmth sits.

As per the snow melt idea. A ton of snow will melt but remember the snow sits on a frozen turkey of sorts and will fade much slower than in the spring when soil temps are on the rise.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

I'll take the under on 4" storm total for LAF. Though I guess that image does include Thursday and Friday's rains. Still, under.

 

Also going to go way over on my current p&c forecast high temps for Saturday and Sunday.

 

Saturday: Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 43. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Sunday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

 

 

 

Absolute soaker on the way.  One uncertainty though is how quickly precip begins.  GGEM has been bringing it in quicker on consecutive runs (in the form of zr).  If we can get something in here early enough on Saturday then perhaps it could start as ice. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

Absolute soaker on the way.  One uncertainty though is how quickly precip begins.  GGEM has been bringing it in quicker on consecutive runs (in the form of zr).  If we can get something in here early enough on Saturday then perhaps it could start as ice. 

 

I noticed the Euro was fairly close to a little zr at the start.

 

Exciting times. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

Honestly I am a bit surprised how many NWS offices jumped immediately with the 12z runs, really only DTX and a couple others kept things in check by mentioning that it can correct back some. Sadly with the 2 pieces going through data sparse regions of the network is just going to complicate things even more.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
YHM Supercell

YHM Supercell

Posted
Posted

Agree 100%. Getting a historic ice threat is going to be difficult for the GTA. First of all you need thermals to line up perfectly or a lot of the QPF is spent on PL/SN/RN. If BL temps are too cold, you get more in the way of PL/SN with the initial burst of precip before a change over. If Sfc/BL temps torch then we get a cold rain after a period of ZR. I do however think that this period of ZR is going to be quite significant for the GTA which isn't used to these types of freezing rain accums(15-35mm potentially). The flow is lined up nicely for some significant ZR, even if its only about 60-80% of the total QPF for YYZ. Once you get north of about the 0.3" mark, you start getting into some major problems with downed power lines/trees in the GTA. Key is going to be that northern branch feature and how much CAD occurs at the surface. Definitely think parts of S ontario have a heightened risk of a potentially devastating ice storm with the guelph/ K-W/ brantford area up towards caledon/bolton/newmarket getting the worst of the ice.

Areas above the escarpment will likely have the best potential at significant freezing rain. Just got home from work so am going to run through all the models to see exactly whats up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...