December 21-22nd Winter Storm Part 2

[WisTodd]

   There was a historic ice storm in WI and MI during the first 5 days of March, 1976.  The bulk of the actual precip occurred on March 2, 4 and 5.  Rainfall of 2.5-3.25" was common and nearly all of it froze on contact.  The ice storm occurred over a thin stripe of southwest, south-central, and northern parts of southeast WI.  Metro Milwaukee was largely spared, but Madison was hit hard.  The ice storm continued into parts of Lower MI, as well.  Many MI forum members will be fascinated by this event.   Rainfall of 2.5-3.25" was common and nearly all of it froze on contact.  The nearest coop observer stations to my childhood home that verify this rainfall are Hartford and West Bend, WI.  (30-35 miles NW of Milwaukee) 

   Googling WI or MI 1976 ice storm will also do the trick. 
  
    I was 11 years old and a confirmed weather geek.  I thought the ice was fascinating until about Day 2, when we had to leave our rural house in a forest of beautiful hardwood trees and find the last hotel room in West Bend.  A snowstorm was predicted for March 4-5 and was going to give us a break from the ice.  Nope -- the snow stayed to our NW and we got another 1.5-2" of heavy rain and t-storms, along with high winds and temps about 28-29F.    What had been a big problem then turned into a first-rate catastrophe.  Power and school were off for many days.  Those who lived away from towns or in wooded areas had it the worst.  Dairy farmers were especially pushed to the limit. 
   
    When we were able to return to our home, (at least a week later, because it took that long to clear roads of trees and downed power lines) it was pure heartbreak.   We lived in a beautiful wooded area -- 100+ year-old oaks, hickories, maples.  The fallen wood was up to our hips, no matter where we tried to walk.  When swamped commercial tree crews could get to us, it was May and I swear those guys in the orange trucks were around for weeks.  Every one of our trees suffered heavy damage and many were little more than upright trunks.  It took 8-12 years for trees to start looking normal again.  
 
    Anyone who wants an ice storm, make sure you only get a minor one.  



   

 

[Harry Perry]

The potential for rapid cyclogenesis was what made me thing yesterday this would put on the left turn signal. I still am not writing off a further Westward correction. Although I don't see to much more of a left solution really to be realistic, but its the atmosphere....so anything is possible.

I certainly don't think anyone will be getting 20" of snow out of this either...a more realistic bet is probably 7-12" of cement quite possibly.

7-12" of cement will keep me busy for the night at the FD. People can't drive in flurries let alone 1-2" per hour concrete.

[Toronto4]

Nice find. I like how the contours basically follow the shape of the Niagara Escarpment/Oak Ridges moraine. In a NE flow those topographical features create a nice CAD barrier for Toronto.

 

 

After the freezing rain, a foot of snow fell in Toronto. Today's 12z Euro text output suggests a similar evolution for Sunday, though the amounts of snow shown by the Euro are lower than what fell back on January 14, 1968.

[Geos]

NAM temperatures at 84 hours.

 

[Harry]

7-12" of cement will keep me busy for the night at the FD. People can't drive in flurries let alone 1-2" per hour concrete.

 

 

Reasons why i avoid the roads around here at all costs unless it is a emergency and or i have to.

[A-L-E-K]

this type of moisture feed really is impressive...really rare air stuff. 

 

[WestCoaster]

This is going to be a major event. I'm hoping it falls as snow because that much ice would basically destroy Toronto. We can handle the snow. I don't even think plain rain is a possibility anymore given the snow pack.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

This is going to be a major event. I'm hoping it falls as snow because that much ice would basically destroy Toronto. We can handle the snow. I don't even think plain rain is a possibility anymore given the snow pack.

I hope you're right, as rain would be such a let down. I'm in full Christmas weenie mode.

[Ajdos]

Shame we don't have a nice strong high pressure to the north..

[WestCoaster]

I have an exam on Saturday morning. I'm really hoping this doesn't cause it to cancel because I do not want to have to wait until the New Year to write it.

[snowstormcanuck]

This is going to be a major event. I'm hoping it falls as snow because that much ice would basically destroy Toronto. We can handle the snow. I don't even think plain rain is a possibility anymore given the snow pack.

 

You have a lot more faith in snowpack than I do.

[RCNYILWX]

quicker/colder push up north though.

the whole baroclinic zone is tighter than what the GFS was showing by 12z Sat...warmer here, colder over the N. plains...we'll see how the models trend over the next few runs. The only constant remains the incredible moisture transport vectors.

The areas that remain mostly liquid through the event could be dealing with a pretty epic flooding situation. 1-2"+ on top of frozen ground with iced over rivers.

[Geos]

Might as well. There's that double barreled system.

 

[Stebo]

You have a lot more faith in snowpack than I do.

Honestly, I do as well, it will make it to maybe 35 to 38 on Friday here. It isn't like we are flying up to 65 around here on Friday.

[Toronto4]

This is going to be a major event. I'm hoping it falls as snow because that much ice would basically destroy Toronto. We can handle the snow. I don't even think plain rain is a possibility anymore given the snow pack.

 

Back on Dec 23, 2004, 7" of snow fell and a few mm of freezing rain. That small amount of ice was enough to shut down the Toronto streetcar system for a couple of days. 

[snowstormcanuck]

Honestly, I do as well, it will make it to maybe 35 to 38 on Friday here. It isn't like we are flying up to 65 around here on Friday.

 

I wouldn't completely rule out rain on Sunday because of snowpack though. I know it helps but I've seen countless times where it's no match for strong low-level WAA.

[Gilbertfly]

The areas that remain mostly liquid through the event could be dealing with a pretty epic flooding situation. 1-2"+ on top of frozen ground with iced over rivers.

 

hadn't thought about that part....and considering that the whole surface, for a large portion of the subforum, is asphalt due to frozen grounds.....some of those flashy rivers/valleys could get out of control very very fast

[snowstormcanuck]

Back on Dec 23, 2004, 7" of snow fell and a few mm of freezing rain. That small amount of ice was enough to shut down the Toronto streetcar system for a couple of days. 

 

Memories. 2nd out of 3 three consecutive Christmases where every broadcaster a week out ruled out a white Christmas for Toronto and had it shoved in their face.

[Stebo]

I wouldn't completely rule out rain on Sunday because of snowpack though. I know it helps but I've seen countless times where it's no match for strong low-level WAA.

If the LLJ was focused at this area I would be completely agreeing with you, but it gets deflected Eastward as it gets to Ohio. Sure there is WAA incoming but it isn't as bad as it could be. Now if the system ends up much stronger than forecast then my point here is moot.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Memories. 2nd out of 3 three consecutive Christmases where every broadcaster a week out ruled out a white Christmas for Toronto and had it shoved in their face.

Was 2003 a white Christmas? I seem to recall December that year being quite mild, before the frigid January. It snowed on Christmas Day, 2002, however.

[cmichweather]

If the LLJ was focused at this area I would be completely agreeing with you, but it gets deflected Eastward as it gets Ohio. Sure there is WAA incoming but it isn't as bad as it could be. Now if the system ends up much stronger than forecast then my point here is moot.

 

I have a gut feeling the gfs is going to show a stronger storm ejecting out of TX and it has time to pump up some warm air. Just a hunch though. 

[snowstormcanuck]

Was 2003 a white Christmas? I seem to recall December that year being quite mild, before the frigid January. It snowed on Christmas Day, 2002, however.

 

No. There was some snow mid-month but a bit of mild spell the last few days before Christmas melted it.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Back on Dec 23, 2004, 7" of snow fell and a few mm of freezing rain. That small amount of ice was enough to shut down the Toronto streetcar system for a couple of days. 

I drove from Ottawa to Toronto at the height of that storm. It was one heck of a drive. Not recommended.

[Hoosier]

If the LLJ was focused at this area I would be completely agreeing with you, but it gets deflected Eastward as it gets to Ohio. Sure there is WAA incoming but it isn't as bad as it could be. Now if the system ends up much stronger than forecast then my point here is moot.

 

 

And as long as sfc winds remain out of the northeast, it's hard to envision any rapid temp climb at the surface.  It would be more like a laborious climb. 

[Gilbertfly]

00Z GFS ... the northern stream energy looks ahead of the pace it had 12Z

[A-L-E-K]

just looking at 850/500, i don't see the GFS coming north..maybe slower/south?

[Stebo]

And as long as sfc winds remain out of the northeast, it's hard to envision any rapid temp climb at the surface.  It would be more like a laborious climb. 

Exactly which is why I am really hanging my hat on the ice storm potential.

[A-L-E-K]

Exactly which is why I am really hanging my hat on the ice storm potential.

 

 

good luck with your call stebo

[Chicago Storm]

The 0z GFS is colder.

[snowstormcanuck]

850s definitely colder at 90.

 

Biggest changes at H5 I see:

 

- slightly less amplification of H5 s/w

- closed low over Hudson Bay has shifted east somewhat