buckeye Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I haven't noticed the old "nw trend" as a dominant characteristic of the models in many a winter. Maybe pre-2007? It seemed to disappear the last few years, but it's alive and kicking again. Look at the last storm, rain made it all the way to Indy. Lesson being learned here moving ahead. It's inevitable that the greatest heartbreak will go to those in the southeast edges of the sweetspot outside of 48 hours....especially with storms out of the sw and gulf. Please remind me of this next time the models are showing a spine runner with 15" across cmh....I don't care wtf the euro is saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Boy, am I glad I missed that run.. .whatever it was. I guess cleaning house, and doing dishes is worthwhile distraction at this point. Alek is right, however, lots of runs left, and, Gilbertfly also made a point that the other piece of this equation is still way out to sea. I am not making any final calls or otherwise. I feel rather strongly this one could go either way for the northern edge of the subforum. I will wait patiently until the rest of this comes in, and we get a clearer picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 12Z DEC18 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 18Z 21-DEC -0.1 -1.6 1016 83 56 0.00 556 543 SUN 00Z 22-DEC -1.0 0.3 1017 93 59 0.01 559 546 SUN 06Z 22-DEC -1.9 1.7 1014 93 100 0.11 559 548 SUN 12Z 22-DEC -0.2 2.7 1005 96 100 0.86 557 553 SUN 18Z 22-DEC 0.6 8.6 1000 94 84 0.44 554 555 MON 00Z 23-DEC 7.9 1.9 996 78 17 0.10 546 549 MON 06Z 23-DEC 0.7 -6.4 1005 79 45 0.00 545 541 Holy ZR. Another model run showing ridiculous amounts of ice. Over 1" of ice would be catastrophic for the GTA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Boy, am I glad I missed that run.. .whatever it was. I guess cleaning house, and doing dishes is worthwhile distraction at this point. Alek is right, however, lots of runs left, and, Gilbertfly also made a point that the other piece of this equation is still way out to sea. I am not making any final calls or otherwise. I feel rather strongly this one could go either way for the northern edge of the subforum. I will wait patiently until the rest of this comes in, and we get a clearer picture. did you have a valium for lunch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 It's. One. Suite. Of. Runs. Just think how many NAM runs we have to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Holy ZR. Another model run showing ridiculous amounts of ice. Over 0.5" of ice would be catastrophic for the GTA By catastrophic I presume you mean power outages and downed hydro lines? Wow, that would be bad news at any time, but just two days before Christmas Eve... If this happens, expect the media to blame it on global warming (sorry for the brief OT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Met Justin Monday night from the first storm thread- "better hope that digging energy in the SW or Baja doesn't pump up to much of a ridge ahead of it...otherwise hello central/northern Iowa up into Western Wisconsin. Hopefully we don't get to strong of a storm to soon for most of us." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 By catastrophic I presume you mean power outages and downed hydro lines? Wow, that would be bad news at any time, but just two days before Christmas Eve... If this happens, expect the media to blame it on global warming (sorry for the brief OT) Transit would be completely out of service. Millions likely would be without power. Roads would be inaccessible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Imagine, now, if the 18z GFS comes in colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Transit would be completely out of service. Millions likely would be without power. Roads would be inaccessible. That would be bad. Very bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Imagine, now, if the 18z GFS comes in colder... It will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 It's. One. Suite. Of. Runs. Just think how many NAM runs we have to go that's what should frighten you. You think the other models went warm? NAM will not be out done on a warming trend. Which may say a lot if it continues to be the furthest se and coldest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Man, even I have to admit that it's crazy that we've gone into meltdown over two model runs...and I'm usually one of the first to go into meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Man, even I have to admit that it's crazy that we've gone into meltdown over two model runs...and I'm usually one of the first to go into meltdown. I'm rooting for plain rain at this point. I'd be surprised to see a substantial dump of snow out of this for YYZ. ZR potential right now is really, really scary and I would like to see that not happen. The storm in early July of this year would be a pipsqueak in comparison to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 It will Awesome. Thanks for the heads up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Man, even I have to admit that it's crazy that we've gone into meltdown over two model runs...and I'm usually one of the first to go into meltdown. I'm concerned that the northern piece of energy for this storm hasn't been fully sampled over the Pacific and that won't be until tomorrow night, I think. That may make the final solution colder than what's currently shown by the 12z GFS and Euro (make this into a pure ice storm). Let's see what happens in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I'm concerned that the northern piece of energy for this storm hasn't been fully sampled over the Pacific and that won't be until tomorrow night, I think. That may make the final solution colder than what's currently shown by the 12z GFS and Euro (make this into a pure ice storm). Let's see what happens in the next few days. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 18z NAM gonna go ham on Des Moines EDIT: looks like some SREF members bring rain to Bo Country...this could get ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 If this morning's runs are correct, the temperature across Iowa will plunge below zero by Monday morning. The Euro keeps us below zero all day Monday. There will be plenty of wind as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 18z NAM gonna go ham on Des Moines EDIT: looks like some SREF members bring rain to Bo Country...this could get ugly oh god. u wanna see a meltdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 oh god. u wanna see a meltdown Maybe Jonger could give you a ride out to Duluth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 So while everyone decided to lose their minds over this model run, I actually decided to look and see why everything shifted West so substantially. It has everything to do with the northern stream piece of energy that for whatever reason has now slowed down several hundred miles this run, could that happen sure, but I wouldn't buy into the northern stream slowing down at this junction. We had that happen last storm around this time frame and it ended up being completely wrong because subsequent runs ended up quicker with the northern stream. Furthermore the bigger problem will be that this northern stream piece of energy won't get sampled fully until 48 to 60 hours from now. So expect more swings in the models. Could it even go further West sure, but knowing how the northern stream works in these situations I would expect this to correct right some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Maybe Jonger could give you a ride out to Duluth you ass ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 So while everyone decided to lose their minds over this model run, I actually decided to look and see why everything shifted West so substantially. It has everything to do with the northern stream piece of energy that for whatever reason has now slowed down several hundred miles this run, could that happen sure, but I wouldn't buy into the northern stream slowing down at this junction. We had that happen last storm around this time frame and it ended up being completely wrong because subsequent runs ended up quicker with the northern stream. Furthermore the bigger problem will be that this northern stream piece of energy won't get sampled fully until 48 to 60 hours from now. So expect more swings in the models. Could it even go further West sure, but knowing how the northern stream works in these situations I would expect this to correct right some. nice post stebo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 So while everyone decided to lose their minds over this model run, I actually decided to look and see why everything shifted West so substantially. It has everything to do with the northern stream piece of energy that for whatever reason has now slowed down several hundred miles this run, could that happen sure, but I wouldn't buy into the northern stream slowing down at this junction. We had that happen last storm around this time frame and it ended up being completely wrong because subsequent runs ended up quicker with the northern stream. Furthermore the bigger problem will be that this northern stream piece of energy won't get sampled fully until 48 to 60 hours from now. So expect more swings in the models. Could it even go further West sure, but knowing how the northern stream works in these situations I would expect this to correct right some. truth...I will be keeping an eye on speed verification of the 12Z runs once we get around 00Z OBS time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 So while everyone decided to lose their minds over this model run, I actually decided to look and see why everything shifted West so substantially. It has everything to do with the northern stream piece of energy that for whatever reason has now slowed down several hundred miles this run, could that happen sure, but I wouldn't buy into the northern stream slowing down at this junction. We had that happen last storm around this time frame and it ended up being completely wrong because subsequent runs ended up quicker with the northern stream. Furthermore the bigger problem will be that this northern stream piece of energy won't get sampled fully until 48 to 60 hours from now. So expect more swings in the models. Could it even go further West sure, but knowing how the northern stream works in these situations I would expect this to correct right some. Excellent post and I totally agree. Gilbertfly mentioned that it probably won't be until tomorrow night's model runs at the earliest when the northern stream energy is partially sampled. I think we should get a better picture by the 12z model runs on Friday or 00z Saturday (Friday night). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Both the gfs and euro capitulated. They shifted at the same run so I don't know how people are applauding the gfs all of a sudden. It comes out first, but that doesn't change the fact they both shifted at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 early looks says the 18z NAM won't be as far west/warm as the GFS (less phased at 850, slower with sw vort) but who knows. They're certainly pretty different already by 15z Friday. NAM GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Really don't want this ZR threat doesn't pan out if just for personal reasons. It would mean I need to plan to spend several days without power at the farm instead of spending several days without power in town. More than any weather ZR scares the hell out of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 500mb at 12z Sat. 18z NAM 12z GFS 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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