snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Just for reference, PL= plain rain, or ice pellets? lol, that'd be something if the wx bell maps indicated rain as snow. PL = ice pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 12z ECMWF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 lol, that'd be something if the wx bell maps indicated rain as snow. PL = ice pellets. lol, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Talk about a thread wide MELTDOWN! warmman.png Main thing that will be going into meltdown will be our snowpack. 12z GFS and Euro = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 This one has a long way to go, most of us look too far south/east but i'm sure a few more surprises are on deck No doubt.. though disappointing the euro had to blow all of our safety net in 12 hrs. I don't trust that model anymore than the others outside of 5 days or so. At least it was consistent in showing what us weenies on the cold side wanted (minus ice/sleet) without too much wavier. Eternity until this one is honed in and it feels like we've had on eye on it for one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Agree. See straw grabbing post above. Here's another semi-straw grabbing post lol. Just think about it this way.. As far as major model runs we still have... Tonight's 00z Thu 12z Thursday night's 00z Friday 12z Friday night's 00z Saturday 12z As Alek mentioned, still plenty of time for some more surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I got 8-9" still on the EURO, but the drop off is pretty close by. Actually Wisc. Wx would be FTW in the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I wouldn't become depressed simply because of ONE run. We'll see a variety of possibilities for the next day or so. As we have seen this year so far, models have had a hard time figuring out the final outcome even less than 12 hours out. For one, this storm is still 84+ hours out. Models can sometimes be too quick in releasing the energy or holding back the energy for far too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 ban ajdos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 ban ajdos lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 ban ajdos go for it lol hey man that 4" call might be in jeopardy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Only 55 min until the 18z NAM rolls out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 haha, surprise! for the record, I thought it was sarcasm. Same DittoMissed opportunity is missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Only 55 min until the 18z NAM rolls out. anyone seen frankthetank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 If this trend holds, the GFS will continue its dominance over the ECMWF the past 3 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 12Z DEC18 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 18Z 21-DEC -0.1 -1.6 1016 83 56 0.00 556 543 SUN 00Z 22-DEC -1.0 0.3 1017 93 59 0.01 559 546 SUN 06Z 22-DEC -1.9 1.7 1014 93 100 0.11 559 548 SUN 12Z 22-DEC -0.2 2.7 1005 96 100 0.86 557 553 SUN 18Z 22-DEC 0.6 8.6 1000 94 84 0.44 554 555 MON 00Z 23-DEC 7.9 1.9 996 78 17 0.10 546 549 MON 06Z 23-DEC 0.7 -6.4 1005 79 45 0.00 545 541 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Although this is a big blow to the EURO, GFS was equally atrocious with its strung out POS, main QPF axis through OH/PA, mostly flurries on the NW side depiction. If today's 12z runs end up being correct, I'd call it a tie for accuracy between the two. More venom obviously is going to be spewed at the EURO cause that was the model that was showing the blizzard. I think Gilbertfly mentioned it last night, but the northern energy piece is still out in the middle of the Pacific and needs to be fully sampled. That won't be until tomorrow night's model runs. That's our last line of hope. But saying that, I think the final solution will lie somewhere in the middle between last night's Euro run and today's 12z GFS/Euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Nice 90 kt LLJ on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 It this trend holds, the GFS will continue its dominance over the ECMWF the past 3 months. Yay America! We all win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 Bowme is back (!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Yay America! We all win!Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 12Z DEC18 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 18Z 21-DEC -0.1 -1.6 1016 83 56 0.00 556 543 SUN 00Z 22-DEC -1.0 0.3 1017 93 59 0.01 559 546 SUN 06Z 22-DEC -1.9 1.7 1014 93 100 0.11 559 548 SUN 12Z 22-DEC -0.2 2.7 1005 96 100 0.86 557 553 SUN 18Z 22-DEC 0.6 8.6 1000 94 84 0.44 554 555 MON 00Z 23-DEC 7.9 1.9 996 78 17 0.10 546 549 MON 06Z 23-DEC 0.7 -6.4 1005 79 45 0.00 545 541 Even with the GFS/EURO's track we still get copious amounts of ice. This may be hard to avoid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 It this trend holds, the GFS will continue its dominance over the ECMWF the past 3 months. what keeps me from purchasing a subscription to it. sure I'll give in soon though. Any chance you can slip away from work and chase severe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 those Accu maps .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 what keeps me from purchasing a subscription to it. sure I'll give in soon though. Any chance you can slip away from work and chase severe? Ditched the other one? lol. This time of year is $ time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Even with the GFS/EURO's track we still get copious amounts of ice. This may be hard to avoid. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Ditched the other one? lol. This time of year is $ time. Yup lol..... Yeah bet you will be glad when the holiday madness is over. Did you clean your box out yet? Been trying to send you messages for a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 anyone seen frankthetank My guess is he's lurking in the shadows, just slowly reeling this thing in lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 Yup lol..... Yeah bet you will be glad when the holiday madness is over. Did you clean your box out yet? Been trying to send you messages for a long time The busy times don't bother me since the $ flow is increased. I cleaned it out this morning...So let the messages flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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