dmc76 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Yeah the uptick in QPF is the thing to take away this run. We'll see how it handles the track the next several runs but it's hard to go against the very consistent Euro and it's ensembles right now. Yeah this looks like the first legit run of the GFS regarding cold sector precip. Whatever convective feedback, or whatever issue it had before seems considerably better with this run, finally. Been waiting for that for several runs now. Like you said it's still pretty early, so a track shift is still quite likely. The consistency of the Euro is definitely still the way to go at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Wow, a nice swath! Thanks for posting that.... Keeps my hope alive And the 12/31/84-1/1/85 snowstorm occurred 3 days after record warmth in this region on Dec. 28-29 (including a 70 in PIA and 74 in SPI on 12/28, and 65 in PIA 12/29). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 12/20/12 redux At least this time around lake temperatures are not that high. That was part of the deal getting snow into the metro early that evening. True, but that storm had to do more with track, actually right over Chicago. By the time the deformation axis/fgen band snows came through here, the forcing weakened and the temperatures were too warm for any meaningful accumulation with the light rates. Thankfully this is just one run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 LOLLLL... this time around we might get 2-4, but rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Snow accumulating in reverse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 12z GGEM is south but it's still warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Snow accumulating in reverse? yep lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 The GFS really needs to find some consistency and the Euro is gonna have to blink before I punt. here's the thing though...even with the wound up system...the timing keeps getting delayed a bit...so it wouldn't shock me to see a similar strength timeline to what the GFS showed (SLP-wise)...but with the delay that leaves time for the front to push a bit further before the trough moves out (I swear i'm not wish-casting too....cause it's prolly not enough to help me on the south side anyways) ... just something to watch IMO I have been thinking slower and stronger from the beginning so whatever (and if i'm not mistaken you were thinking more amped as well from the beginning)....we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 here's the thing though...even with the wound up system...the timing keeps getting delayed a bit...so it wouldn't shock me to see a similar strength timeline to what the GFS showed (SLP-wise)...but with the delay that leaves time for the front to push a bit further before the trough moves out (I swear i'm not wish-casting too....cause it's prolly not enough to help me on the south side anyways) ... just something to watch IMO I have been thinking slower and stronger from the beginning so whatever (and if i'm not mistaken you were thinking more amped as well from the beginning)....we'll see correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Given the consistency of the EURO + its ensembles and the fact that the 12z GEM actually came south some, I guess it's safe to toss the 12z GFS. Or at least rest it on the rim of the waste basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Boy, the 12z GFS and GEM's amped up, nw solutions made this system a whole lot more exciting for Iowans. The GEM even gets Nebraska into the heavy snow. Now the latest GFS/GEM and Euro runs give Chicago nothing and 12+, respectively. Something has to give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Given the consistency of the EURO + its ensembles and the fact that the 12z GEM actually came south some, I guess it's safe to toss the 12z GFS. Or at least rest it on the rim of the waste basket. 12z GGEM looks like it continues its big ice storm look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Would be quite the slap in the face if the euro, after all it's consistency, suddenly jumps to the gfs camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Way too much rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Would be quite the slap in the face if the euro, after all it's consistency, suddenly jumps to the gfs camp. The OP Euro has always had decent and increasing ensemble support where the GFS have been all over the map and probably still will be. I suspect the 12z Euro comes in more or less the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 IND can probably just issues the flood headlines now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Biggest change I see on the 12z GFS aloft is all of a sudden the string of vorticity dropping down the back side of the northern stream ul trough is much more aggressive diving into the Plains. This allows for a much quicker phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 EURO Ensembles now getting more on board with the insane QPF. Still not up to the level of the OP run but getting there. 12z ensemble mean had the 2+ line from LAF to just south of Toledo and the 1.75 line just sneaking up to near Josh.. 00z ensemble mean now has the 2+ line from Kankakee/Valpo just to my se running over into Detroit.. A little was lost on the outer edges especially nw side. Also have a new widespread area of 2.5+ covering se MO, S.IL up into Central IN almost to LAF. 12z run had just a small spot of 2.5 around Paducah.. Chicago went from the 1.00 1.5 range to 1.25 by IL/WI line to 1.75 on the south side.. inch+ sneaks up to geos hood and .75+ up to MKE which is the same as the 12z mean.. inch+ line sits at the IL/IA line for the Quad Cities area which is also the same as the 12z.. Oh and the mean is a slight bit south as well with track and a shade colder vs 12z mean.. Lost a few more ensemble members that were going over top of/nw of here. Nearly all of them are now on the same track to near/just south of Cleveland. DO NOTE.. Some of that includes the system on Thurs/Fri from both runs.. worth a bump....if the 12z Euro completely flips to a GFS like solution it will be a notable flip flop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Wow the new GEM has Omaha/Des Moines in the game now. Makes you wonder if the ingestion of 12z data has changed the game some. Gonna make the Euro very interesting. If it holds ground I'd still side with it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 12z GGEM looks like it continues its big ice storm look. Yeah, but it actually trended a little colder. More PL and the snow line is just to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Yeah, but it actually trended a little colder. More PL and the snow line is just to our north. Yes I just saw that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Just for lol sake, the 12z GEM gives the QC 28hrs straight sleet, followed by a few hours of snow at the tail-end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Hopefully this run of the Grinch for Santa run was simply trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 We have a LOT video briefing to look forward to this afternoon: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 lol, 6z GFS had LAF topping out at 34F... 12z takes us up to 53. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 12z GGEM looks like it continues its big ice storm look. 36 hours straight of freezing rain. My God.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 We have a LOT video briefing to look forward to this afternoon: Gino is working today and he hates snow and cold so I'm sure he's rooting for the GFS/GEM lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Lol, anyone see the DGEX?! Crazy amounts in IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 If the Euro remains the same I'd be willing to bet the GFS trends to that solution. The Euro hasn't moved at all with placing ~1036mb high over SD at 12z Sunday where the GFS isn't even close (1032mb up in Saskatchewan) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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