Harry Perry Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 GFS gives me .20" ice followed by 6" of heavy wet snow with 30 mile an hour winds.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I'm currently thinking something like 1.2 total qpf, with .01" ZR, .40" RN, .20" IP, and .59" SN (8:1) Not sure what to expect with this one. Everything looks so warm. No doubt it'll be a sloppy mess and a big change from the nice, fluffy snowfalls we've been adding up this month. Has been an interesting one to watch on the models though, just not feeling confident about the evolution of things, despite a rock solid Euro for the past several runs. I think ALEK has the right idea with this one, except we rarely see that much sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 This event could end being like that one wet snowfall early last February I cashed in on. Like 9:1 or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 To me the big take away from tonight's runs is that both the GFS and Euro were colder and south a bit, the clown models of GGEM and Ukie I am not at all concerned about. Also the fact that other than minor nudges the Euro has pretty much locked on a solution and has for several runs now. Yes it is wx porn. Just a sick run. Anyways YYZ text has been posted by another poster. Thanks Keener! Definitely colder at the sfc in comparison to 12z. 850 is a touch warm but workable. It's warm tongues at other levels that I'd be worried about. Is it safe for me to gather from these posts that the Euro is still calling for a massive snowstorm for southern Ontario. An Environment Canada employee on the accuweather Canada forums seems to think this will be a mainly rain event, although Anthony Farnell, a local TV met (probably the best one Toronto has) is starting to become very concerned about the possibility of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 12z GFS a tad warmer aloft at 69 hours compared to 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 12z GFS a tad warmer aloft at 69 hours compared to 06z. GFS and NAM having major differences with timing and plains thermals already at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 fugly gfs run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 GFS looks very warm....and farrr nwww.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 GFS bringing the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Kansas getting smoked at 90hrs. Surface low south of St Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 GFS has the low near Gary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 GFS has the low near Gary. Wow. Down to 992mb as well. Definitely the most amped op run we've seen from the GFS so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 wagons west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 QC getting crushed hit hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Look at all the warmth... Merry Christmas.... LOL On to the EURO. If it holds, we trash the GFS (like the last several runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 987 near Saginaw at 102. Heaviest snow axis would probably be central KS up through Cedar Rapids/Dubuque to Madison. Over this way it looks sleety until around 96hr, with several inches following that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 The GFS needs to work on consistency/timing issues before it can be taken too seriously but it was only a matter of time before it got a clue and started showing real deal cold sector QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 987 near Saginaw at 102. Heaviest snow axis would probably be central KS up through Cedar Rapids/Dubuque to Madison. Over this way it looks sleety until around 96hr, with several inches following that. 12/20/12 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 What turn of events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 The GFS needs to work on consistency/timing issues before it can be taken too seriously but it was only a matter of time before it got a clue and started showing real deal cold sector QPF. Yeah the uptick in QPF is the thing to take away this run. We'll see how it handles the track the next several runs but it's hard to go against the very consistent Euro and it's ensembles right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 12/20/12 redux At least this time around lake temperatures are not that high. That was part of the deal getting snow into the metro early that evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Wow, what a warm run of the GFS. You're a mean one, Mr. Grinch For Santa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Wow, what a warm run of the GFS. You're a mean one, Mr. Grinch For Santa. Toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 A few of the GFS ensemble members have been pretty amped so I guess it's not too surprising to get a run like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Toss Hopefully the Euro will hold its ground or our Christmas might indeed look like Jonger's picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 The freezing rain potential with this is frightening. Surface temps will struggle with the snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Trends do look bad for DTW I guess the amped/bomb(ish) is still on the table... I have been feeling that's the way to go with this one...even though that kinda kills my chances for snow in MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I guess the amped/bomb(ish) is still on the table... I have been feeling that's the way to go with this one...even though that kinda kills my chances for snow in MBY The GFS really needs to find some consistency and the Euro is gonna have to blink before I punt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Yeah the uptick in QPF is the thing to take away this run. We'll see how it handles the track the next several runs but it's hard to go against the very consistent Euro and it's ensembles right now. The uptick in QPF correlates strongly with the low being stronger/more wrapped up, as a TROWAL feature is able to develop. It means nothing for most of the sub-forum. While not unlikely, I don't see a low that strong/wrapped up taking a favorable track for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.