pazzo83 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Yes exactly. There is a substanail snowpack around my area and even near Philly area. So while the snow will melt, it might help keep the temps cooler than what the models are showing. At least initally. Yea, probably initially (Fri/Sat). But lows in the 50s is a snow eater like no other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Speaking of teens in NYC in December, the last time the temperature fell below 20° was December 14, 2010. Today marked the 1,100th day since the last reading below 20° in December. That breaks the record of 1,099 days (December 26, 1906 through December 28, 1909) during which the temperature did not fall below 20° in December. Also another streak to keep track of, the last time NYC recorded a low below 10F was on the morning of Jan 24th, 2011. That was 1060 days ago. Not sure what the record is (Uncle?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Yea, probably initially (Fri/Sat). But lows in the 50s is a snow eater like no other.fog is the quickest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Also another streak to keep track of, the last time NYC recorded a low below 10F was on the morning of Jan 24th, 2011. That was 1060 days ago. Not sure what the record is (Uncle?) NYC's current stretch is the 4th longest. The 3 longest periods without a single digit reading are: 2/18/1930 through 12/28/1933: 1,410 days 1/29/2000 through 1/22/2003: 1,090 days 2/27/1990 through 1/31/1993: 1,070 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Below are the maximum temperatures for select sites for 12/22 shown on the 12/18 12z MEX MOS with daily records in parentheses. ALB 57° (60°, 1990) BDR 60° (59°, 1998) EWR 68° (65°, 1998) HPN 64° (66°, 1998) ISP 60° (59°, 2011) JFK 62° (62°, 1998) LGA 66° (64°, 1998) NYC 67° (63°, 1998) POU 62° (61°, 1949) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Winter takes a long break it seems. Even after the super torch, temperatures are mostly in the 40s, maybe 30s for the 24th. It won't be till the last few days of this month that we might start seeing more of a PNA influence to get us colder again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 . NYC still hasn't had a low in the teens yet in December despite the cold departures this month. This is truly amazing. I live only 50 miles from NYC and I'm not on top of a mountain or anything...we hit 3 degrees the other night and have seemingly been below 20 more than we've been above it for the past couple weeks. Such a crazy difference for such a small distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 This is truly amazing. I live only 50 miles from NYC and I'm not on top of a mountain or anything...we hit 3 degrees the other night and have seemingly been below 20 more than we've been above it for the past couple weeks. Such a crazy difference for such a small distance. Mega heat island + ocean. Our nighttime lows are more inline with the deep south. Case in point, lowest temps so far this Dec: NYC: 22F Downtown Manhattan (JRB): 24F LGA: 23F DCA: 25F RIC: 23F RDU: 23F CLT: 18F Columbia, SC: 25F ATL: 28F Mont, AL: 26F Jack, MS: 24F Tallah, FL: 31F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 When the lady from the south starts dancing with with the emperor of the north watchout even in dull winters it could make it memorable.How is that for sound scientific reasoning,there are no packdogs and snowmobiles in my neighnborhood or big snows wouldn't have much meaning.Patience be careful what you wish for arctic air in my neck of the woods usually shunts storms to the south and i wakeup with dry skin and a bloody nose . see ya oh yeah static electricity that stands the hair on my cats back stand straightup.LOL science is really cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 It will be interesting to see the model forecasts the next few days as the MOS numbers are printing out a new highest temperature for Newark in late December. The previous record was 71 in 1984. NEWARK KEWR GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 12/19/2013 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24| WED 25| THU 26|FRI CLIMO N/X 36 52| 42 57| 53 72| 49 51| 30 38| 24 40| 28 44| 31 27 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I guess ill go see the tree in my shorts this year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 GFS MOS has a high of 70 in Newark Sunday. NEWARK KEWR GFS MOS GUIDANCE 12/20/2013 1200 UTC DT /DEC 20/DEC 21 /DEC 22 /DEC 23 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 43 57 53 70 54 TMP 52 55 51 47 46 45 46 51 55 55 53 54 55 56 57 63 68 68 64 59 56 DPT 37 36 36 40 42 41 42 44 45 46 48 51 53 54 56 58 58 57 56 54 48 CLD BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK OV OV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 fog is the quickest Don't think that's always correct. While water vapor condensing into liquid droplets (fog) does release a lot of energy (heat) into the snowpack, leading to melting, unless there is heat involved, i.e., unless the air temperature is well above freezing, most of the melted snow will simply be absorbed by the snowpack. Also, in many arid locations, sublimation (conversion of frozen water directly to water vapor) is often the predominant mechanism of snow ablation (removal), especially in "chinook" situations, where the air warms and compresses and dries out as it descends, which, along with bright sunshine, will lead to much more sublimation than melting (even though it takes a lot more energy to vaporize than to melt frozen water: 80 Cal/g to melt vs. 540 Cal/g to vaporize). Also, in our neck of the woods, I'm almost certain we'll get more melting from a 65F day with showers (not much sublimation, though, as it's too humid) than a 35F day with fog - temperature is really important... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 18z NAM is much warmer now for Sunday with widespread 70's from I-95 south and east up to the city. Mid 60's for northern NJ and extreme western Long Island. Looks like east of JFK is going to be stuck in the 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The GFS continues to be more progressive with getting the front off the coast on Monday in order to avoid the heavy rain as depicted by the SREF's and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2013 Author Share Posted December 21, 2013 Record highs for Sunday: EWR 65/1998 BDR 59/1998 NYC *63/1998 LGA 64/1998 JFK 62/1998 ISP 59/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 0z Euro Hi-Res have highs upper 60s over NYC/NE NJ tomorrow.0z GFS MOS showed high of 73 for EWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2013 Author Share Posted December 21, 2013 0z Euro Hi-Res have highs upper 60s over NYC/NE NJ tomorrow.0z GFS MOS showed high of 73 for EWR The December 15-31 record high for NYC is 70 and 71 at Newark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 the ground was frozen and now it's thawing out...if this keeps up it will be a banner pothole season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 4km NAM 2m temps appear too low today. It has NYC in the lower 40s now. While were actually in the upper 40s and lower 50s now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 we could see a record high max and record high min today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 4km NAM 2m temps appear too low today. It has NYC in the lower 40s now. While were actually in the upper 40s and lower 50s now. RAP gets temps into the 60's even out here on LI today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Seems like temps are overperforming already. Much of South Jersey is in the mid and upper 60s. EWR is 59, forecast was for mid 50s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Across the Mid-Atlantic, temperatures greatly exceeded even today's 12z MOS. A number of records were set including: Atlantic City: 67° (Old record: 63°, 2011) Baltimore: 68° (Old record: 62°, 2011) Norfolk: 72° (Old record: 71°, 1956) Washington, DC: ...DCA: 70° (Old record: 68°, 1923) ...IAD: 68° (Old record: 61°, 2011) Wilmington: 67° (Old record: 65°, 1895) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 2pm temps EWR 62 NYC 61 LGA 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 If it's overcast tomorrow, then temps will likely not over perform but it makes sense today with the sunshine, at 63F here, 5 degrees above forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 RAP gets temps into the 60's even out here on LI today. I hit 61 today before the s wind kicked in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 2pm temps EWR 62 NYC 61 LGA 60 That ties a record for ewr. Not sure about any other sites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 12z 4k was the warmest yet for tom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I hit 61 today before the s wind kicked in I hit 54 before sea breeze came through. The Great South Bay which I assume is in the low 40's really keeps me significantly cooler than other places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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