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Record Late December Warmth Today


bluewave

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Yes exactly.  There is a substanail snowpack around my area and even near Philly area.  So while the snow will melt, it might help keep the temps cooler than what the models are showing. At least initally.

Yea, probably initially (Fri/Sat).  But lows in the 50s is a snow eater like no other.

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Speaking of teens in NYC in December, the last time the temperature fell below 20° was December 14, 2010. Today marked the 1,100th day since the last reading below 20° in December. That breaks the record of 1,099 days (December 26, 1906 through December 28, 1909) during which the temperature did not fall below 20° in December.

 

Also another streak to keep track of, the last time NYC recorded a low below 10F was on the morning of Jan 24th, 2011.  That was 1060 days ago.  Not sure what the record is (Uncle?)

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Also another streak to keep track of, the last time NYC recorded a low below 10F was on the morning of Jan 24th, 2011.  That was 1060 days ago.  Not sure what the record is (Uncle?)

NYC's current stretch is the 4th longest. The 3 longest periods without a single digit reading are:

 

2/18/1930 through 12/28/1933: 1,410 days

1/29/2000 through 1/22/2003: 1,090 days

2/27/1990 through 1/31/1993: 1,070 days

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Below are the maximum temperatures for select sites for 12/22 shown on the 12/18 12z MEX MOS with daily records in parentheses.

 

ALB 57° (60°, 1990)

BDR 60° (59°, 1998)

EWR 68° (65°, 1998)

HPN 64° (66°, 1998)

ISP 60° (59°, 2011)

JFK 62° (62°, 1998)

LGA 66° (64°, 1998)

NYC 67° (63°, 1998)

POU 62° (61°, 1949)

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. NYC still hasn't had a low

in the teens yet in December despite the cold departures this month. 

 

This is truly amazing.  I live only 50 miles from NYC and I'm not on top of a mountain or anything...we hit 3 degrees the other night and have seemingly been below 20 more than we've been above it for the past couple weeks.  Such a crazy difference for such a small distance.

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This is truly amazing.  I live only 50 miles from NYC and I'm not on top of a mountain or anything...we hit 3 degrees the other night and have seemingly been below 20 more than we've been above it for the past couple weeks.  Such a crazy difference for such a small distance.

 

Mega heat island + ocean.  Our nighttime lows are more inline with the deep south.  Case in point, lowest temps so far this Dec:

 

NYC: 22F

Downtown Manhattan (JRB): 24F

LGA: 23F

DCA: 25F

RIC: 23F

RDU: 23F

CLT: 18F

Columbia, SC: 25F

ATL: 28F

Mont, AL: 26F 

Jack, MS: 24F

Tallah, FL: 31F

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When the lady from the south starts dancing with with the emperor of the north watchout even in dull winters it could make it memorable.How is that for sound scientific reasoning,there are no packdogs and snowmobiles in my neighnborhood or big snows wouldn't have much meaning.Patience be careful what you wish for arctic air in my neck of the woods usually shunts storms to the south and i wakeup with dry skin and a bloody nose  . see ya oh yeah static electricity that stands the hair on my cats back stand straightup.LOL science is really cool.

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It will be interesting to see the model forecasts the next few days as the MOS numbers are printing out

a new highest temperature for Newark in late December. The previous record was 71 in 1984.

NEWARK               KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  12/19/2013  1200 UTC                        FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192            FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24| WED 25| THU 26|FRI CLIMO N/X  36  52| 42  57| 53  72| 49  51| 30  38| 24  40| 28  44| 31 27 42

 

 

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GFS MOS has a high of 70 in Newark Sunday.

NEWARK               KEWR   GFS MOS GUIDANCE   12/20/2013  1200 UTC                       DT /DEC  20/DEC  21                /DEC  22                /DEC  23  HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12  N/X                    43          57          53          70    54  TMP  52 55 51 47 46 45 46 51 55 55 53 54 55 56 57 63 68 68 64 59 56  DPT  37 36 36 40 42 41 42 44 45 46 48 51 53 54 56 58 58 57 56 54 48  CLD  BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK OV OV 

 

 

 

 

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fog is the quickest

Don't think that's always correct.  While water vapor condensing into liquid droplets (fog) does release a lot of energy (heat) into the snowpack, leading to melting, unless there is heat involved, i.e., unless the air temperature is well above freezing, most of the melted snow will simply be absorbed by the snowpack.  Also, in many arid locations, sublimation (conversion of frozen water directly to water vapor) is often the predominant mechanism of snow ablation (removal), especially in "chinook" situations, where the air warms and compresses and dries out as it descends, which, along with bright sunshine, will lead to much more sublimation than melting (even though it takes a lot more energy to vaporize than to melt frozen water: 80 Cal/g to melt vs. 540 Cal/g to vaporize).  Also, in our neck of the woods, I'm almost certain we'll get more melting from a 65F day with showers (not much sublimation, though, as it's too humid) than a 35F day with fog - temperature is really important...

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Across the Mid-Atlantic, temperatures greatly exceeded even today's 12z MOS. A number of records were set including:

 

Atlantic City: 67° (Old record: 63°, 2011)

Baltimore: 68° (Old record: 62°, 2011)

Norfolk: 72° (Old record: 71°, 1956)

Washington, DC:

...DCA: 70° (Old record: 68°, 1923)

...IAD: 68° (Old record: 61°, 2011)

Wilmington: 67° (Old record: 65°, 1895)

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