Record Late December Warmth Today

[SnoSki14]

GFS MOS MEX numbers has Newark at +25 on Sunday. The highest departure ever

this time of year for Newark I think was +26 on 12-29-84 against colder means from

that era. A big bite will come out of the current negative monthly temperature departures

here including the warmth on the days surrounding Sunday. 

 

Do you think the positive departures will be strong enough to give a positive departure for the month. I think current departures are between -3 and -3.5 with some a bit lower after today. 

[bluewave]

Do you think the positive departures will be strong enough to give a positive departure for the month. I think current departures are between -3 and -3.5 with some a bit lower after today. 

 

I think the departures will make a run closer to normal by Monday, but it will come down to the last week or so of the month

to see how we finish. We may end December something like -1 to +1, just not sure yet.

[SnoSki14]

I think the departures will make a run closer to normal by Monday, but it will come down to the last week or so of the month

to see how we finish.

 

That's crazy, all that work to get well below for the first 2/3 of the month only to finish near normal because of 2-3 days, warmth FTL.

[earthlight]

[REDMK6GLI]

gfs_t2max_anom_ne_41.png

Mmmmm toasty john, breaking out the shorts sunday? Lolll

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

gfs_t2max_anom_ne_41.png

 

1 AM Sunday Night?!?!?  

[REDMK6GLI]

1 AM Sunday Night?!?!?

Lets hope some records can fall sunday atleast before we get back to the cold again. Im looking forward to this to be honest, like warm weather in between cold in the winter

[bluewave]

Lets hope some records can fall sunday atleast before we get back to the cold again. Im looking forward to this to be honest, like warm weather in between cold in the winter

 

We are loosing our source of cold as the blocking pattern in the Pacific takes a breather. So any cold after the warm up

will be less impressive than we have seen so far this month here. Then we'll have to wait and

see what the pattern serves up for January.

 

[REDMK6GLI]

We are loosing our source of cold as the blocking pattern in the Pacific takes a breather. So any cold after the warm up

will be less impressive than we have seen so far this month here. Then we'll have to wait and

see what the pattern serves up for January.

4panel.png

According to that the big east coast storm on the GFS really wouldnt be too ideal with that setup. From what that shows its going to have to come down to timing with any cold that will be around as well if we can get some atlantic blocking which is hard to come by lately

[PB GFI]

We are loosing our source of cold as the blocking pattern in the Pacific takes a breather. So any cold after the warm up

will be less impressive than we have seen so far this month here. Then we'll have to wait and

see what the pattern serves up for January.

 

4panel.png

The Euro ensembles are stronger with the cold than the Operational which is stronger than the GFS . 

We may not get pinched off according to the 0z Control , it has a 10 day cold shot back into the East , The warm up is short lived .

Just recycling IMO .

[NEXtreme]

The Euro ensembles are stronger with the cold than the Operational which is stronger than the GFS .

We may not get pinched off according to the 0z Control , it has a 10 day cold shot back into the East , The warm up is short lived .

Just recycling IMO .

teleconnections actually argue for bitter Arctic intrusions

[jjvesnow]

Just a thought here.  Since there is now snow pack all the way down to the philly area, and the southerly winds will be bringing up the warm air.  Wont the warm air cool down due to the snow pack?   Do the models take this into account? 

[REDMK6GLI]

teleconnections actually argue for bitter Arctic intrusions

We need the arctic air to be involved during the new years period as the gfs and euro periodically are showing something potentially big in that time frame. May be our first real threat for the megalopolis

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z Euro gets the 60F isotherm to NYC at 18z on Sunday. and upper 60's by 21z. It's a two day warm up with highs in the upper 50's to near 60 on Monday.

[NEXtreme]

Just a thought here. Since there is now snow pack all the way down to the philly area, and the southerly winds will be bringing up the warm air. Wont the warm air cool down due to the snow pack? Do the models take this into account?

No they do not.

[pazzo83]

Just a thought here.  Since there is now snow pack all the way down to the philly area, and the southerly winds will be bringing up the warm air.  Wont the warm air cool down due to the snow pack?   Do the models take this into account? 

 

The snow will be long gone by Sunday.

[IsentropicLift]

The snow will be long gone by Sunday.

The 4k NAM which actually has a snow depth feature shows all the snowpack disappearing outside of far northern New England and a few spotty areas of an inch or less.

 

The storm last Saturday is great example of how even the coldest preluding air masses can yield rain for the coast and this past month and now this upcoming weekend are great examples of how bitterly cold and snowpack can turn into upper 60's and green lawns.

[bluewave]

The Euro ensembles are stronger with the cold than the Operational which is stronger than the GFS . 

We may not get pinched off according to the 0z Control , it has a 10 day cold shot back into the East , The warm up is short lived .

Just recycling IMO .

 

 

teleconnections actually argue for bitter Arctic intrusions

 

Looks like average cool downs for this time of year with nothing that cold. NYC still hasn't had a low

in the teens yet in December despite the cold departures this month. So it will be interesting to see if

if NYC will be able to drop at least into the upper teens before the month is out or we get stuck in the

low 20's for a monthly minimum. Maybe a few daily departures in the -5 to -10 degree range.

[Heavy Snow Warning]

The 4k NAM which actually has a snow depth feature shows all the snowpack disappearing outside of far northern New England and a few spotty areas of an inch or less.

 

The storm last Saturday is great example of how even the coldest preluding air masses can yield rain for the coast and this past month and now this upcoming weekend are great examples of how bitterly cold and snowpack can turn into upper 60's and green lawns.

You really think we wil lose the entire snowpack?  I've got a 6 inch base of ice up here--from snow to sleet to freezing rain.  Yesterday we got about 4" ontop of that. 

[IsentropicLift]

You really think we wil lose the entire snowpack?  I've got a 6 inch base of ice up here--from snow to sleet to freezing rain.  Yesterday we got about 4" ontop of that. 

If we get upper 60's under full sunshine I think it's a possibility. Especially since it will be near 60 on Monday as well. The saving grace is that the rain is modeled to stay mostly to our north and west. The combination of rain and the melting snow pack could have made things messy.

[Heavy Snow Warning]

If we get upper 60's under full sunshine I think it's a possibility. Especially since it will be near 60 on Monday as well. The saving grace is that the rain is modeled to stay mostly to our north and west. The combination of rain and the melting snow pack could have made things messy.

Yes 60's and rain certainly.  My forecast currently is for mid 50's on sunday, but 40's otherwise.  i'm still holding out hope.

[IsentropicLift]

Yes 60's and rain certainly. My forecast currently is for mid 50's on sunday, but 40's otherwise. i'm still holding out hope.

Well the temps aren't supposed to be quite as warm up in your neck of the woods as they are down here, but I still think you see 60 and someone, likely EWR squeezes out 70.

[Stormlover74]

If we get upper 60's under full sunshine I think it's a possibility. Especially since it will be near 60 on Monday as well. The saving grace is that the rain is modeled to stay mostly to our north and west. The combination of rain and the melting snow pack could have made things messy.

But I think the original question was if the snowpack would make a difference in Sunday's high temperature. So while Sunday may help melt the snowpack wouldn't there be some still on the ground Sunday morning especially if Fri/Sat stay in the 40s? I'm mostly talking about areas N&W that have more snow on the ground and aren't going to warm up as much.

[jjvesnow]

But I think the original question was if the snowpack would make a difference in Sunday's high temperature. So while Sunday may help melt the snowpack wouldn't there be some still on the ground Sunday morning especially if Fri/Sat stay in the 40s? I'm mostly talking about areas N&W that have more snow on the ground and aren't going to warm up as much.

Yes exactly.  There is a substanail snowpack around my area and even near Philly area.  So while the snow will melt, it might help keep the temps cooler than what the models are showing. At least initally.

[IsentropicLift]

Yes exactly.  There is a substanail snowpack around my area and even near Philly area.  So while the snow will melt, it might help keep the temps cooler than what the models are showing. At least initally.

Anything is possible. FWIW the 15z SREF's show a low in the lower 50's on Saturday night for everyone outside of Orange County, NY.

[Brian5671]

with the the high dews, no one will likely have anything left by say 6am Monday.    Parking lot piles will be the only survivors of this disaster.

[PB GFI]

The way you lose your snowpack is very easy ,  FRI 50 SAT 60  SUN 65 with rain   MON 60  . your lows never get below freezing from Fri AM on  .

I watched 2 FT of snow evaporate  inside 1 week back in 2008  , your foot of snow will be GONE come Monday afternoon .

This is not cloudy and  40 coming  , its  4 days of (  plus 15 )   and you are above freezing for 96 hours in some spots

[donsutherland1]

Looks like average cool downs for this time of year with nothing that cold. NYC still hasn't had a low

in the teens yet in December despite the cold departures this month.

Speaking of teens in NYC in December, the last time the temperature fell below 20° was December 14, 2010. Today marked the 1,100th day since the last reading below 20° in December. That breaks the record of 1,099 days (December 26, 1906 through December 28, 1909) during which the temperature did not fall below 20° in December.

[jm1220]

The way you lose your snowpack is very easy ,  FRI 50 SAT 60  SUN 65 with rain   MON 60  . your lows never get below freezing from Fri AM on  .

I watched 2 FT of snow evaporate  inside 1 week back in 2008  , your foot of snow will be GONE come Monday afternoon .

This is not cloudy and  40 coming  , its  4 days of (  plus 15 )   and you are above freezing for 96 hours in some spots

Cloudy and 40 can get rid of snowpack just as quickly as dry, sunny and 55 sometimes. 40 degrees can have high humidity and onshore wind, and destroy a snowpack. I saw it happen more than once in the 2010-2011 winter when coastal fronts broke through my area a few times. Once, I lost more than 8" of snowcover in a matter of a few hours.

[bluewave]

Speaking of teens in NYC in December, the last time the temperature fell below 20° was December 14, 2010. Today marked the 1,100th day since the last reading below 20° in December. That breaks the record of 1,099 days (December 26, 1906 through December 28, 1909) during which the temperature did not fall below 20° in December.

 

It's a big departure for some of us that remember the big December Arctic outbreaks like Christmas 1980.