SnoSki14 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 GFS MOS MEX numbers has Newark at +25 on Sunday. The highest departure ever this time of year for Newark I think was +26 on 12-29-84 against colder means from that era. A big bite will come out of the current negative monthly temperature departures here including the warmth on the days surrounding Sunday. Do you think the positive departures will be strong enough to give a positive departure for the month. I think current departures are between -3 and -3.5 with some a bit lower after today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 Do you think the positive departures will be strong enough to give a positive departure for the month. I think current departures are between -3 and -3.5 with some a bit lower after today. I think the departures will make a run closer to normal by Monday, but it will come down to the last week or so of the month to see how we finish. We may end December something like -1 to +1, just not sure yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I think the departures will make a run closer to normal by Monday, but it will come down to the last week or so of the month to see how we finish. That's crazy, all that work to get well below for the first 2/3 of the month only to finish near normal because of 2-3 days, warmth FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 gfs_t2max_anom_ne_41.png Mmmmm toasty john, breaking out the shorts sunday? Lolll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 gfs_t2max_anom_ne_41.png 1 AM Sunday Night?!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 1 AM Sunday Night?!?!? Lets hope some records can fall sunday atleast before we get back to the cold again. Im looking forward to this to be honest, like warm weather in between cold in the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 Lets hope some records can fall sunday atleast before we get back to the cold again. Im looking forward to this to be honest, like warm weather in between cold in the winter We are loosing our source of cold as the blocking pattern in the Pacific takes a breather. So any cold after the warm up will be less impressive than we have seen so far this month here. Then we'll have to wait and see what the pattern serves up for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 We are loosing our source of cold as the blocking pattern in the Pacific takes a breather. So any cold after the warm up will be less impressive than we have seen so far this month here. Then we'll have to wait and see what the pattern serves up for January. 4panel.png According to that the big east coast storm on the GFS really wouldnt be too ideal with that setup. From what that shows its going to have to come down to timing with any cold that will be around as well if we can get some atlantic blocking which is hard to come by lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 We are loosing our source of cold as the blocking pattern in the Pacific takes a breather. So any cold after the warm up will be less impressive than we have seen so far this month here. Then we'll have to wait and see what the pattern serves up for January. 4panel.png The Euro ensembles are stronger with the cold than the Operational which is stronger than the GFS . We may not get pinched off according to the 0z Control , it has a 10 day cold shot back into the East , The warm up is short lived . Just recycling IMO . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 The Euro ensembles are stronger with the cold than the Operational which is stronger than the GFS . We may not get pinched off according to the 0z Control , it has a 10 day cold shot back into the East , The warm up is short lived . Just recycling IMO . teleconnections actually argue for bitter Arctic intrusions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Just a thought here. Since there is now snow pack all the way down to the philly area, and the southerly winds will be bringing up the warm air. Wont the warm air cool down due to the snow pack? Do the models take this into account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 teleconnections actually argue for bitter Arctic intrusions We need the arctic air to be involved during the new years period as the gfs and euro periodically are showing something potentially big in that time frame. May be our first real threat for the megalopolis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 The 12z Euro gets the 60F isotherm to NYC at 18z on Sunday. and upper 60's by 21z. It's a two day warm up with highs in the upper 50's to near 60 on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Just a thought here. Since there is now snow pack all the way down to the philly area, and the southerly winds will be bringing up the warm air. Wont the warm air cool down due to the snow pack? Do the models take this into account? No they do not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Just a thought here. Since there is now snow pack all the way down to the philly area, and the southerly winds will be bringing up the warm air. Wont the warm air cool down due to the snow pack? Do the models take this into account? The snow will be long gone by Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 The snow will be long gone by Sunday. The 4k NAM which actually has a snow depth feature shows all the snowpack disappearing outside of far northern New England and a few spotty areas of an inch or less. The storm last Saturday is great example of how even the coldest preluding air masses can yield rain for the coast and this past month and now this upcoming weekend are great examples of how bitterly cold and snowpack can turn into upper 60's and green lawns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 The Euro ensembles are stronger with the cold than the Operational which is stronger than the GFS . We may not get pinched off according to the 0z Control , it has a 10 day cold shot back into the East , The warm up is short lived . Just recycling IMO . teleconnections actually argue for bitter Arctic intrusions Looks like average cool downs for this time of year with nothing that cold. NYC still hasn't had a low in the teens yet in December despite the cold departures this month. So it will be interesting to see if if NYC will be able to drop at least into the upper teens before the month is out or we get stuck in the low 20's for a monthly minimum. Maybe a few daily departures in the -5 to -10 degree range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Warning Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 The 4k NAM which actually has a snow depth feature shows all the snowpack disappearing outside of far northern New England and a few spotty areas of an inch or less. The storm last Saturday is great example of how even the coldest preluding air masses can yield rain for the coast and this past month and now this upcoming weekend are great examples of how bitterly cold and snowpack can turn into upper 60's and green lawns. You really think we wil lose the entire snowpack? I've got a 6 inch base of ice up here--from snow to sleet to freezing rain. Yesterday we got about 4" ontop of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 You really think we wil lose the entire snowpack? I've got a 6 inch base of ice up here--from snow to sleet to freezing rain. Yesterday we got about 4" ontop of that. If we get upper 60's under full sunshine I think it's a possibility. Especially since it will be near 60 on Monday as well. The saving grace is that the rain is modeled to stay mostly to our north and west. The combination of rain and the melting snow pack could have made things messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Warning Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 If we get upper 60's under full sunshine I think it's a possibility. Especially since it will be near 60 on Monday as well. The saving grace is that the rain is modeled to stay mostly to our north and west. The combination of rain and the melting snow pack could have made things messy. Yes 60's and rain certainly. My forecast currently is for mid 50's on sunday, but 40's otherwise. i'm still holding out hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Yes 60's and rain certainly. My forecast currently is for mid 50's on sunday, but 40's otherwise. i'm still holding out hope.Well the temps aren't supposed to be quite as warm up in your neck of the woods as they are down here, but I still think you see 60 and someone, likely EWR squeezes out 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 If we get upper 60's under full sunshine I think it's a possibility. Especially since it will be near 60 on Monday as well. The saving grace is that the rain is modeled to stay mostly to our north and west. The combination of rain and the melting snow pack could have made things messy. But I think the original question was if the snowpack would make a difference in Sunday's high temperature. So while Sunday may help melt the snowpack wouldn't there be some still on the ground Sunday morning especially if Fri/Sat stay in the 40s? I'm mostly talking about areas N&W that have more snow on the ground and aren't going to warm up as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 But I think the original question was if the snowpack would make a difference in Sunday's high temperature. So while Sunday may help melt the snowpack wouldn't there be some still on the ground Sunday morning especially if Fri/Sat stay in the 40s? I'm mostly talking about areas N&W that have more snow on the ground and aren't going to warm up as much. Yes exactly. There is a substanail snowpack around my area and even near Philly area. So while the snow will melt, it might help keep the temps cooler than what the models are showing. At least initally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Yes exactly. There is a substanail snowpack around my area and even near Philly area. So while the snow will melt, it might help keep the temps cooler than what the models are showing. At least initally. Anything is possible. FWIW the 15z SREF's show a low in the lower 50's on Saturday night for everyone outside of Orange County, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 with the the high dews, no one will likely have anything left by say 6am Monday. Parking lot piles will be the only survivors of this disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 The way you lose your snowpack is very easy , FRI 50 SAT 60 SUN 65 with rain MON 60 . your lows never get below freezing from Fri AM on . I watched 2 FT of snow evaporate inside 1 week back in 2008 , your foot of snow will be GONE come Monday afternoon . This is not cloudy and 40 coming , its 4 days of ( plus 15 ) and you are above freezing for 96 hours in some spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Looks like average cool downs for this time of year with nothing that cold. NYC still hasn't had a low in the teens yet in December despite the cold departures this month. Speaking of teens in NYC in December, the last time the temperature fell below 20° was December 14, 2010. Today marked the 1,100th day since the last reading below 20° in December. That breaks the record of 1,099 days (December 26, 1906 through December 28, 1909) during which the temperature did not fall below 20° in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 The way you lose your snowpack is very easy , FRI 50 SAT 60 SUN 65 with rain MON 60 . your lows never get below freezing from Fri AM on . I watched 2 FT of snow evaporate inside 1 week back in 2008 , your foot of snow will be GONE come Monday afternoon . This is not cloudy and 40 coming , its 4 days of ( plus 15 ) and you are above freezing for 96 hours in some spots Cloudy and 40 can get rid of snowpack just as quickly as dry, sunny and 55 sometimes. 40 degrees can have high humidity and onshore wind, and destroy a snowpack. I saw it happen more than once in the 2010-2011 winter when coastal fronts broke through my area a few times. Once, I lost more than 8" of snowcover in a matter of a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 Speaking of teens in NYC in December, the last time the temperature fell below 20° was December 14, 2010. Today marked the 1,100th day since the last reading below 20° in December. That breaks the record of 1,099 days (December 26, 1906 through December 28, 1909) during which the temperature did not fall below 20° in December. It's a big departure for some of us that remember the big December Arctic outbreaks like Christmas 1980. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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