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Record Late December Warmth Today


bluewave

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The latest run of the Euro brings 16C+ warmth at 850 mb to the area on Sunday. I believe 

that this would be the warmest temperatures at 850 mb that our area has seen from

12-20 to 12-31. The warmest day on record at Newark during this time of year 

was 12-29-84 when the high temperature reached 71 degrees. The reanalysis

maps show that this day featured 850 mb temperatures lower than is in the current

forecast. But that day featured a more WSW flow than the current Euro run is showing.

The key to getting the maximum potential warming will be how much

sunshine can break out ahead of the cold front. So we'll need to watch later

model runs to see how far north the area of clearing ahead of the front gets

on Sunday. The record high for that day at Newark is 65 degrees. 

 

 

 

 

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I would love to see it hit 80 during met winter, then I might believe in global warming!

 

We've came close to that during met winter DJF. ISP hit 77 degrees on 12/7/1998. Achieved it with a west wind, ISP was actually warmer than most regional stations that day. Unfortunately, this upcoming one doesn't look like that. Strong SSW wind off the water out here with high dews will cause us to be fogged out, while it torches inland where it's able to clear. Think there will be a sharp cutoff in temps.

 

As for what's theoretically possible. Getting above 80 degrees in met winter would be extremely hard, even if the planet continues to gets warmer. You can get the mid level temps that can support 80+ temps, but your also battling a very low sun angle, a very short length of day, and any marine influence that occurs. It might be possible for places well inland in February, where a higher sun angle and longer length of day are less of a nuisance.

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00z/18 GFS MEX highs for Sunday:

 

NYC 69
JFK 64
LGA 69
EWR 69
TEB 71
BDR 62
ISP 62

 

0z Euro sill has upper 60s from NYC SW. Keeps LI in the upper 50s for highs with the SW flow off the ocean.

 

It might also be quite windy on Sunday afternoon and evening. GFS sounding show a 60-80kt LLJ and dry mid-levels. Any sunshine could enhance mixing:
 

13zu843.jpg
 

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It's ashame this has to be such an extreme sudden warmup - will wipe out the entire snow cover in most of the NYC Metro just in time for a green Christmas Unless the rain changes to snow on Monday as the arctic air returns - then back to the ice box with intense model watching and threats of east coast storms. This December is behaving alot like a typical January around these parts with the stats to match one...........

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It's ashame this has to be such an extreme sudden warmup - will wipe out the entire snow cover in most of the NYC Metro just in time for a green Christmas Unless the rain changes to snow on Monday as the arctic air returns - then back to the ice box with intense model watching and threats of east coast storms. This December is acting alot like a typical January around these parts with the stats to match one...........

If not for the new years threat being modeled i think january is going to VERY fun around and here maybe deep into febraury ( bold statement i know ) but with -EPO not looking to dissapear for good periods of nuetral to negative NAO or some sort of blocking will drastically increase the odds for east coast cyclogenesis

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it's not the first time we had a warm up that melted the snow cover before Christmas...nothing can beat 1964 for being a green Christmas after snow that fell on the 20th especially after five straight Christmas's with snow on the ground...2008's snow cover melted before Christmas morning and it was mild...2009 had rain Christmas night...It's on to January and we might not see any more snow until then...There's always the outside chance the pattern reloads soon but it remains to be seen...

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Fri, Sat, Sun, Mon look to average +15 or a total surplus of 60 degs. in four days, adding nearly 2degs. to December's final tally all by itself.   Record 850mb temps at this time of year are 15C degs. over NYC and this is being forecast by GFS.   A thk. of 5665dm is also being indicated for Sunday PM.   Check out this Skew-T in tabular form:       

  

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=KNYC&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=4.5day&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480

 

Shows a theoretical high of 82degs. for Sunday, but only low 60's at surface at 1pm.   I guess if the numbers on this chart  existed near June 21 instead of near the shortest day of year, 82 would be possible.   Record for Dec. in CPK is 75degs., earlier in the month.

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It's ashame this has to be such an extreme sudden warmup - will wipe out the entire snow cover in most of the NYC Metro just in time for a green Christmas Unless the rain changes to snow on Monday as the arctic air returns - then back to the ice box with intense model watching and threats of east coast storms. This December is behaving alot like a typical January around these parts with the stats to match one...........

I don't see ice box after the warm up, it looks near to slightly below after since the EPO neutralizes, January is still a big question mark as of now.

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it's not the first time we had a warm up that melted the snow cover before Christmas...nothing can beat 1964 for being a green Christmas after snow that fell on the 20th especially after five straight Christmas's with snow on the ground...2008's snow cover melted before Christmas morning and it was mild...2009 had rain Christmas night...It's on to January and we might not see any more snow until then...There's always the outside chance the pattern reloads soon but it remains to be seen...

2008 it hit 65 around December 28th...January became very cold after...same with 1964-65...Hopefully this year does the same and not be similar to 2005-06 January...

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GFS MOS MEX numbers has Newark at +25 on Sunday. The highest departure ever

this time of year for Newark I think was +26 on 12-29-84 against colder means from

that era. A big bite will come out of the current negative monthly temperature departures

here including the warmth on the days surrounding Sunday. 

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