bluewave Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The latest run of the Euro brings 16C+ warmth at 850 mb to the area on Sunday. I believe that this would be the warmest temperatures at 850 mb that our area has seen from 12-20 to 12-31. The warmest day on record at Newark during this time of year was 12-29-84 when the high temperature reached 71 degrees. The reanalysis maps show that this day featured 850 mb temperatures lower than is in the current forecast. But that day featured a more WSW flow than the current Euro run is showing. The key to getting the maximum potential warming will be how much sunshine can break out ahead of the cold front. So we'll need to watch later model runs to see how far north the area of clearing ahead of the front gets on Sunday. The record high for that day at Newark is 65 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 How`s this for contrast 12z Euro control run of the Ensembles , 2 days later we are Minus 17 at 850 . How bout 70 Sunday 10 Degrees Christmas morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 How`s this for contrast 12z Euro control run of the Ensembles , 2 days later we are Minus 17 at 850 . How bout 70 Sunday 10 Degrees Christmas morning Yeah thats the shocking part is this warmth will be right after this cold and snowy period and just before another potential arctic blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Yeh if both those maps verify I would be impressed . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 sounds like a December 1951 redux...it's bad timing for the warm up but that's weather for ya...as long as the cold returns I'm not worried...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I hope we go all in on this torch, if it's going to torch it might as well shatter records. I'm all in for low 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I hope we go all in on this torch, if it's going to torch it might as well shatter records. I'm all in for low 70's. I would love to see it hit 80 during met winter, then I might believe in global warming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I would love to see it hit 80 during met winter, then I might believe in global warming! We've came close to that during met winter DJF. ISP hit 77 degrees on 12/7/1998. Achieved it with a west wind, ISP was actually warmer than most regional stations that day. Unfortunately, this upcoming one doesn't look like that. Strong SSW wind off the water out here with high dews will cause us to be fogged out, while it torches inland where it's able to clear. Think there will be a sharp cutoff in temps. As for what's theoretically possible. Getting above 80 degrees in met winter would be extremely hard, even if the planet continues to gets warmer. You can get the mid level temps that can support 80+ temps, but your also battling a very low sun angle, a very short length of day, and any marine influence that occurs. It might be possible for places well inland in February, where a higher sun angle and longer length of day are less of a nuisance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Yeah thats the shocking part is this warmth will be right after this cold and snowy period and just before another potential arctic blast. If we can get the Atlantic to cooperate with that kind of trough, it's game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 If we can get the Atlantic to cooperate with that kind of trough, it's game time. that's what im saying if by January we get some atlantic blocking with a fresh high we could be in for quite a storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LnbWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Let it torch. I'm going to miss the snow cover though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I hope we go all in on this torch, if it's going to torch it might as well shatter records. I'm all in for low 70's. that's right! lets make it count brotha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Hopefully the warmth is short lived, and we get a little help from the Atlantic, what would have to take place in order to get a block in the Atlantic to set up ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 from FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 probably cut the grass sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Hopefully the warmth is short lived, and we get a little help from the Atlantic, what would have to take place in order to get a block in the Atlantic to set up ??? Probably won't go too much past the weekend. Maybe to Monday before return to more normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 This is probably the event that will induce slightly more blocking for the New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Wow 16c thats impressive. This is probably the event that will induce slightly more blocking for the New Year. - yea the gfs is showing some type of storm in that time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Wow 16c thats impressive. - yea the gfs is showing some type of storm in that time frame A Pre Christmas steam bath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Here is an oddity, the record high for every day in December in Central Park is 60 degrees or higher except for one day, December 19th with 58 degrees the record high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 How is the Euro looking for our weekend torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 How is the Euro looking for our weekend torch? Still has 16-17c 850s (slightly cooler than 12z) and 20c around for the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 00z/18 GFS MEX highs for Sunday: NYC 69JFK 64LGA 69EWR 69TEB 71BDR 62ISP 62 0z Euro sill has upper 60s from NYC SW. Keeps LI in the upper 50s for highs with the SW flow off the ocean. It might also be quite windy on Sunday afternoon and evening. GFS sounding show a 60-80kt LLJ and dry mid-levels. Any sunshine could enhance mixing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 It's ashame this has to be such an extreme sudden warmup - will wipe out the entire snow cover in most of the NYC Metro just in time for a green Christmas Unless the rain changes to snow on Monday as the arctic air returns - then back to the ice box with intense model watching and threats of east coast storms. This December is behaving alot like a typical January around these parts with the stats to match one........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 It's ashame this has to be such an extreme sudden warmup - will wipe out the entire snow cover in most of the NYC Metro just in time for a green Christmas Unless the rain changes to snow on Monday as the arctic air returns - then back to the ice box with intense model watching and threats of east coast storms. This December is acting alot like a typical January around these parts with the stats to match one........... If not for the new years threat being modeled i think january is going to VERY fun around and here maybe deep into febraury ( bold statement i know ) but with -EPO not looking to dissapear for good periods of nuetral to negative NAO or some sort of blocking will drastically increase the odds for east coast cyclogenesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 it's not the first time we had a warm up that melted the snow cover before Christmas...nothing can beat 1964 for being a green Christmas after snow that fell on the 20th especially after five straight Christmas's with snow on the ground...2008's snow cover melted before Christmas morning and it was mild...2009 had rain Christmas night...It's on to January and we might not see any more snow until then...There's always the outside chance the pattern reloads soon but it remains to be seen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Fri, Sat, Sun, Mon look to average +15 or a total surplus of 60 degs. in four days, adding nearly 2degs. to December's final tally all by itself. Record 850mb temps at this time of year are 15C degs. over NYC and this is being forecast by GFS. A thk. of 5665dm is also being indicated for Sunday PM. Check out this Skew-T in tabular form: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=KNYC&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=4.5day&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480 Shows a theoretical high of 82degs. for Sunday, but only low 60's at surface at 1pm. I guess if the numbers on this chart existed near June 21 instead of near the shortest day of year, 82 would be possible. Record for Dec. in CPK is 75degs., earlier in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 It's ashame this has to be such an extreme sudden warmup - will wipe out the entire snow cover in most of the NYC Metro just in time for a green Christmas Unless the rain changes to snow on Monday as the arctic air returns - then back to the ice box with intense model watching and threats of east coast storms. This December is behaving alot like a typical January around these parts with the stats to match one........... I don't see ice box after the warm up, it looks near to slightly below after since the EPO neutralizes, January is still a big question mark as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 it's not the first time we had a warm up that melted the snow cover before Christmas...nothing can beat 1964 for being a green Christmas after snow that fell on the 20th especially after five straight Christmas's with snow on the ground...2008's snow cover melted before Christmas morning and it was mild...2009 had rain Christmas night...It's on to January and we might not see any more snow until then...There's always the outside chance the pattern reloads soon but it remains to be seen... 2008 it hit 65 around December 28th...January became very cold after...same with 1964-65...Hopefully this year does the same and not be similar to 2005-06 January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 GFS MOS MEX numbers has Newark at +25 on Sunday. The highest departure ever this time of year for Newark I think was +26 on 12-29-84 against colder means from that era. A big bite will come out of the current negative monthly temperature departures here including the warmth on the days surrounding Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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