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December pattern discussion, part II


Typhoon Tip

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Euro ensembles have a the big -EPO/+NAO combo for the foreseeable future...some spikes in the PNA are evident off and on during this time as well. Flow should remain relatively fast though with zero blocking whatsoever on the Atlantic side...so it would be hard to get any slower moving coastal storms.

 

Snow events likely to continue to come from SWFE and clippers...any coastals would be quick moving if they manage to develop in the hostile flow. Should be plenty of cold available though as long as the EPO remains negative.

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Euro ensembles have a the big -EPO/+NAO combo for the foreseeable future...some spikes in the PNA are evident off and on during this time as well. Flow should remain relatively fast though with zero blocking whatsoever on the Atlantic side...so it would be hard to get any slower moving coastal storms.

Snow events likely to continue to come from SWFE and clippers...any coastals would be quick moving if they manage to develop in the hostile flow. Should be plenty of cold available though as long as the EPO remains negative.

When was the last winter where we actually had all teleconnectors cooperating? Its seems its always one or two picking up the slack for the others
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2009-2010.....but we still got screwed relatively speaking in New England.

Yea that winter was good for NYC but NE didnt too well IIRC compared what recieved relative to average. Hopefully what earthlight posted about the grinch storm maybe changing the pattern in the long run may pan out or its just another storm that cant kick the atlantic blocking into gear yet

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Yea that winter was good for NYC but NE didnt too well IIRC compared what recieved relative to average. Hopefully what earthlight posted about the grinch storm maybe changing the pattern in the long run may pan out or its just another storm that cant kick the atlantic blocking into gear yet

 

 

I do not see any sign of sustained Atlantic blocking...we'll need more than a cutter to change that up. That is a death vortex over the region...only maybe some transient east based -NAO episodes seem possible, but on the whole I'd go big +NAO.

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I was speaking more to snowfall, though we did get of to an earlier start than 2008.

December has defenitley been colder than that year, but January 2009 was pretty cold.

Jan 2009 was very very cold, with the back ground cold signal snow is greater away from you than typical in SWFE winters, more chances for southern locales as has been evident. I like where this is going very much.

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I do not see any sign of sustained Atlantic blocking...we'll need more than a cutter to change that up. That is a death vortex over the region...only maybe some transient east based -NAO episodes seem possible, but on the whole I'd go big +NAO.

Yea so looks like nickel and dime events down near the tri-state then this winter for now. Good for you guys though getting your snow

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Yea so looks like nickel and dime events down near the tri-state then this winter for now. Good for you guys though getting your snow

 

North and central SNE are getting their snows, coastal locations are snowless, 4" so far this year, but I guess the coastline doesn't do too well early on in the season.  Our best snowfall was like the Mid Atlantic's best snowfall, we got 100" roughly and they got 100"+ roughly in some locations of that winter, but we can't expect to have snow every winter, it just doesn't happen to us on the coastline like it does further inland and the southwest burbs of Boston, MA where they jackpot every storm.  It is just the way it is.

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North and central SNE are getting their snows, coastal locations are snowless, 4" so far this year, but I guess the coastline doesn't do too well early on in the season.  Our best snowfall was like the Mid Atlantic's best snowfall, we got 100" roughly and they got 100"+ roughly in some locations of that winter, but we can't expect to have snow every winter, it just doesn't happen to us on the coastline like it does further inland and the southwest burbs of Boston, MA where they jackpot every storm.  It is just the way it is.

 

I am on the coastline and have over 15". You also did not get 100" in 2009/ 2010.

 

The issue is more with the lows tucking in close to the coast. That probably will change.

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That Essex county toaster bath is one of the best screwjobs of all time.

 

 

It was pretty awful up into Maine too but I don't have it on the map since it cuts off. But I probably was too generous even in S ME on that map. Some area u[p there had like 40", lol...pretty far north too. What a screwjob winter that was in those parts...the Essex county, Rockingham county over to Hillsborough county (at least the lower parts) screwjob is ridiculous.

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It was pretty awful up into Maine too but I don't have it on the map since it cuts off. But I probably was too generous even in S ME on that map. Some area u[p there had like 40", lol...pretty far north too. What a screwjob winter that was in those parts...the Essex county, Rockingham county over to Hillsborough county (at least the lower parts) screwjob is ridiculous.

 

You know it's bad when Brookhaven NY beats cstl Maine.

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My parents moved to Cape Cod in '01.  Two of the first three years the Bay froze over.  Going to the beach and looking out towards Plym/Bos made you feel like you were looking out over the Arctic Circle.  It was awesome.  I think it was '02 and '04 if I remember correctly.  There was also a 14" OES storm in Chatham sometime in that period I believe.

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wheres are 12/13 map Cisco

 

 

About 2/3rds finished, lol. I'll get them out, I promise...better late than never. Its just been a crazy 6 months though. I think I'll be able to finish them after the holidays....well unless January ends up like Jan '94...then I might be waiting a bit longer. :lol:

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My parents moved to Cape Cod in '01.  Two of the first three years the Bay froze over.  Going to the beach and looking out towards Plym/Bos made you feel like you were looking out over the Arctic Circle.  It was awesome.  I think it was '02 and '04 if I remember correctly.  There was also a 14" OES storm in Chatham sometime in that period I believe.

Jan 04, icebergs in Nantucket sound, the visible sat pic was incredible.

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About 2/3rds finished, lol. I'll get them out, I promise...better late than never. Its just been a crazy 6 months though. I think I'll be able to finish them after the holidays....well unless January ends up like Jan '94...then I might be waiting a bit longer. :lol:

why did you get married and get a new job or something LOL, major life changes much??? 

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My parents moved to Cape Cod in '01.  Two of the first three years the Bay froze over.  Going to the beach and looking out towards Plym/Bos made you feel like you were looking out over the Arctic Circle.  It was awesome.  I think it was '02 and '04 if I remember correctly.  There was also a 14" OES storm in Chatham sometime in that period I believe.

'03 and '04.

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