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December pattern discussion, part II


Typhoon Tip

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LMAO

not really

 

It is pretty obvious what is happening here both with FF and with the weather.  God I've only been up here 5 years but this situation is an icestorm at least down to Will.  Does it break through at some point for a few hours before a frontal passage?  probably for most.  Do we keep a good part of our snow pack?  Yes.  To add to the side of CAD is the thick snow pack which will make it even harder to move the front north.   This feels like Dec 08 maybe a little further north.  It'll run up Newark's fanny but won't get past Tolland's abs.

Actually, yes, really. He's just presenting a very possible solution, which is the loss of snowpack. It's just snowpack.

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There is a decent signal for something 30-31.

 

I think this is the period to watch. The big system coming up prior to Christmas is going to change the pattern, whether it is temporary or not. And the cold air is not totally depleted from the EPO being not-as-wildly-negative. So whatever establishes itself over the Northern 1/3 of the Central and Eastern US is likely going to be pretty cold and stubborn. The model guidance is beginning to hint at this 30-31 system being the third in a series of systems. The second comes on the heels of the Pre-Christmas storm and looks like it holds some potential for redevelopment and wintry stuff in Northern New England. But the third system will likely have a much better antecedent setup. It's showing up here on the GFS..

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_18z/f288.gif

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I think this is the period to watch. The big system coming up prior to Christmas is going to change the pattern, whether it is temporary or not. And the cold air is not totally depleted from the EPO being not-as-wildly-negative. So whatever establishes itself over the Northern 1/3 of the Central and Eastern US is likely going to be pretty cold and stubborn. The model guidance is beginning to hint at this 30-31 system being the third in a series of systems. The second comes on the heels of the Pre-Christmas storm and looks like it holds some potential for redevelopment and wintry stuff in Northern New England. But the third system will likely have a much better antecedent setup. It's showing up here on the GFS..

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_18z/f288.gif

 

im LOVING this period john, borderline excited as the sunday storm may act like the archembalt event to change the pattern to a more conducive east coast snowstorm pattern

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I think this is the period to watch. The big system coming up prior to Christmas is going to change the pattern, whether it is temporary or not. And the cold air is not totally depleted from the EPO being not-as-wildly-negative. So whatever establishes itself over the Northern 1/3 of the Central and Eastern US is likely going to be pretty cold and stubborn. The model guidance is beginning to hint at this 30-31 system being the third in a series of systems. The second comes on the heels of the Pre-Christmas storm and looks like it holds some potential for redevelopment and wintry stuff in Northern New England. But the third system will likely have a much better antecedent setup. It's showing up here on the GFS..

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_18z/f288.gif

 

There looks to be something coming down the pipe as ridging builds east into the west coast of the US. Maybe something also phasing with the SW cutoff as well. 

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congrats to the big mountains in HI

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
345 PM HST WED DEC 18 2013

CORRECTED HEADLINE

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS ABOVE 12000 FEET...

.A COLD LOW IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE OVER THE BIG
ISLAND BY LATE TONIGHT SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SUMMITS
WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

HIZ028-191400-
/O.UPG.PHFO.WS.A.0002.131219T1000Z-131220T1600Z/
/O.NEW.PHFO.WS.W.0003.131219T1000Z-131220T1600Z/
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MAUNA LOA AND MAUNA KEA ABOVE 8000 FEET
345 PM HST WED DEC 18 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM
HST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM HST
FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...BIG ISLAND SUMMITS ABOVE 12000 FEET.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

* IMPACTS...SNOW SHOWERS AND HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS COULD LEAD TO
RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AT THE SUMMITS ABOVE 12000 FEET. THE
HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW SQUALLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

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I think this is the period to watch. The big system coming up prior to Christmas is going to change the pattern, whether it is temporary or not. And the cold air is not totally depleted from the EPO being not-as-wildly-negative. So whatever establishes itself over the Northern 1/3 of the Central and Eastern US is likely going to be pretty cold and stubborn. The model guidance is beginning to hint at this 30-31 system being the third in a series of systems. The second comes on the heels of the Pre-Christmas storm and looks like it holds some potential for redevelopment and wintry stuff in Northern New England. But the third system will likely have a much better antecedent setup. It's showing up here on the GFS..

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_18z/f288.gif

That looks like a much better pattern to see a big east coast storm. The west coast ridge is pretty massive and the Atlantic definitely looks better. Looks like higher heights are building into Greenland by 288 hours.

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That looks like a much better pattern to see a big east coast storm. The west coast ridge is pretty massive and the Atlantic definitely looks better. Looks like higher heights are building into Greenland by 288 hours.

 

WHat a massive ridge building into the western US.  I see something occurring around the 26-28th period as well as the 30-31st.

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