powderfreak Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I'm really concerned for operations at the ski areas. I know how hard it is to scour out that cold air on Mansfield's east basin. The 1,500ft base elevation tucked on the cold E/NE side of that mountain does not lose cold air easily. Any westerly or SWly flow just goes right over the top. I've watched the temps enough to know how this plays out... summit station could be mid-30s, while its 25-30F at the 2,600ft and 1,500ft stations and pouring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 GFS runs the low practically over Chicago now. With no blocking and an amplifying trough it's not that surprising the trend is NW. Personally just hoping for rain totals to be cut back in SNE, but I could see how by hanging back the WAA is weakened and cold air is slower to erode, especially with the models sniffing the stronger HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 That front is lucky to make it to Kittery ME. It ain't going anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Oh how I pray GFS has a pretty massive temp gradient in SNE sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 AUG Maine FTL. Wow. 1.5" qpf, temps upper 20s, h85s 0 to +4? Another Jan 1998? Hope my part of the foothills gets mainly sleet as happened in that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 GFS runs the low practically over Chicago now. With no blocking and an amplifying trough it's not that surprising the trend is NW. Personally just hoping for rain totals to be cut back in SNE, but I could see how by hanging back the WAA is weakened and cold air is slower to erode, especially with the models sniffing the stronger HP. That is what we want....track the damn thing so far west, that that TUG and Detroit see the bulk of the warm push...and ice is limited up in nne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Well hopefully the slug of precip somehow stays west. There is no question you are cold, just precip amounts I guess. Still have time. That is a hideous look. The soundings for KAUG are unreal... and that's on the GFS. Imagine how the higher resolution models will handle the low level cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 GFS runs the low practically over Chicago now. With no blocking and an amplifying trough it's not that surprising the trend is NW. Personally just hoping for rain totals to be cut back in SNE, but I could see how by hanging back the WAA is weakened and cold air is slower to erode, especially with the models sniffing the stronger HP.Yeah we mentioned that the other day. Track the low so far west that we stay wedged in until fropa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 GFS has a pretty massive temp gradient in SNE sunday. gfs.png how does that map look 6 hours later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 That is a hideous look. The soundings for KAUG are unreal... and that's on the GFS. Imagine how the higher resolution models will handle the low level cold. My friend Dan and I were talking about this. That's awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 impressive...GFS (at the red dot) sounding considering typical inability to see LL cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 1.5" qpf, temps upper 20s, h85s 0 to +4? Another Jan 1998? Hope my part of the foothills gets mainly sleet as happened in that event. Ugh, I am not liking what i am seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 You can bet ORH ain't gonna be 52 on Sunday. Wait till the hi res models get ahold of this as we move into better timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 how does that map look 6 hours later? looks like its about 70F in newark. congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 front gets pushed into maine by 0z monday what is your deal? are you rooting for the front to move north? are you jealous because you will lose your snow and some of us won't? as you pointed out, the euro last night had its warmest run - for who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 You can bet ORH ain't gonna be 52 on Sunday. Wait till the hi res models get ahold of this as we move into better timeframeso ignore the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 so ignore the euro?Who said they were ? Just commenting on the trends here, your're really pushing for this warmth into New Eng. maybe you'll get your wish and maybe you won't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 what is your deal? are you rooting for the front to move north? are you jealous because you will lose your snow and some of us won't? as you pointed out, the euro last night had its warmest run - for who? What he posts is verbatim. He is a good counterpoint to some.... He knows his stuff Devil ya know vs the devil that hypes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 what is your deal? are you rooting for the front to move north? are you jealous because you will lose your snow and some of us won't? as you pointed out, the euro last night had its warmest run - for who? lol... he can comment on it verbatim. I don't think he's rooting for anything. He likes heat anyway. We can't freak out over someone discussing a warm solution. That's certainly on the table. I like that we discuss all options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I have very high confidence in one of these 39/38 1/8SM vis fog and DZ+ days in the valley, especially if the further west trend continues and keeps us out of the heavier rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 That run reduces the furnace time if not the actual temps for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I have very high confidence in one of these 39/38 1/8SM vis fog and DZ+ days in the valley, especially if the further west trend continues and keeps us out of the heavier rains.You can envision a place like CEF locked at 32 all weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 What he posts is verbatim. He is a good counterpoint to some.... He knows his stuff Devil ya know vs the devil that hypes i don't think there's much question that at some point, the front will rip through the region and scour this out. your area though and points N and E, might still be in the game to really minimize the damage though. initial placement of the boundary and all that stuff could be the difference between 48 hours of 50F and 6 hours of 50F. it's worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 What he posts is verbatim. He is a good counterpoint to some.... He knows his stuff Devil ya know vs the devil that hypes he doesn't know new england climo it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 GFS has a pretty massive temp gradient in SNE sunday. gfs.png Is that 52 at ORH? Wow what a gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Canadian is really ugly for NNE...it looks more CADish than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 That run reduces the furnace time if not the actual temps for some.Yeah that's what those of us south of the pike are hoping. Just have a few hours in the 40's and them flash freeze with fropa , at least it's an option on the table , one of several Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 he doesn't know new england climo it seems. I think he does. He is just posting what the models show. He has not forecasted anything We need his input. Some of us might not like it, but it is what it is. Good medicine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 GFS is showing a huge coastal storm New Years Eve/New Years Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I think he does. He is just posting what the models show. He has not forecasted anything We need his input. Some of us might not like it, but it is what it is. Good medicine this is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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