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December pattern discussion, part II


Typhoon Tip

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NAM is really trending towards developing the clipper redeveloping off the 40/70 benchmark towards the 26th, with precip blossoming over Cape Cod, MA, but is also a tad too aggressive and until the GFS starts showing this aggressive development off Cape COd, MA the NAM is just the NAM.  ALso it will likely be all rain unless the precip comes down heavily.

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Clipper on the 26th looks like light rain and snow showers, NAM is just too aggressive with redevelopment south of the 40/70 benchmark.

 

Euro strengthens it in the Gulf of ME and gives coastal and downeast ME some enhancement. It was more aggressive than the GFS.

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18z GFS goes nuts with the coastal low just offshore of New England, but if it were to come west via that run, cold air arrives just in time for the coastal precip to be mainly snow as the arctic plunge occurs.  This coastal storm explodes to 944mb in the Canadian Maritimes, so the ingredients are there for an explosive result, just when that happens is yet to be determined.

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