jamesnichols1989 Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Might get an inch or so north of the pike and higher elevations on the 26th. Another north of the pike special, I hope we get some blocking in here for January otherwise we will have too many events for the north of the pike region than south of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Another north of the pike special, I hope we get some blocking in here for January otherwise we will have too many events for the north of the pike region than south of the pike. Since I'm a greedy snow weenie I'll take north of the pike , my pack needs refreshing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Might get an inch or so north of the pike and higher elevations on the 26th. Another north of the pike special, I hope we get some blocking in here for January otherwise we will have too many events for the north of the pike region than south of the pike. With or without blocking, north wins. Climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 I think the pattern becomes conducive for a nice snow event sometime around NYE, perhaps the 29th on towards the New Year. +PNA spikes to +1 SD and the AO goes negative. I think we can end up with the Polar Vortex over New England for a time in the future, near future rather than later. Whether or not its conducive for a snowstorm that is just up to a disturbance coming through the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Another north of the pike special, I hope we get some blocking in here for January otherwise we will have too many events for the north of the pike region than south of the pike. You'll be fine. If this pans out with a good look as modeled you'll get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 With or without blocking, north wins. Climo. This is like a HubbDave on north deal. I wouldn't even be disappointed if I were James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Might get an inch or so north of the pike and higher elevations on the 26th. I could see that blossom a bit along eastern MA too. There's definitely a signal with that much vorticity advection into the area for snow showers or a more concentrated area of light snow in CNE towards the coastal areas. I like these little events as it's usually favorable nickel and dime stuff up here. But looks like the core of the vort max punches through CNE, so enhanced chances in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 I could see that blossom a bit along eastern MA too. There's definitely a signal with that much vorticity advection into the area for snow showers or a more concentrated area of light snow in CNE towards the coastal areas. I like these little events as it's usually favorable nickel and dime stuff up here. But looks like the core of the vort max punches through CNE, so enhanced chances in that area. Srly flow cooks us here. Rain FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Srly flow cooks us here. Rain FTL. I'm really starting to like the end of December for an event for coastal locations. Spike in the PNA would allow upstream ridging to dump into a downstream trough, that will likely dig enough southeastward to pick up Atlantic moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Srly flow cooks us here. Rain FTL. It's that warm in the boundary layer? I didn't even look...it's like -6 to -8 at H85? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 It's that warm in the boundary layer? I didn't even look...it's like -6 to -8 at H85? Especially south of the pike. 950s approach 0C. Might start as a little snow and then flip to sprinkles. These events are more latitude driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Since I'm a greedy snow weenie I'll take north of the pike , my pack needs refreshing My sentiment as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 I'm really starting to like the end of December for an event for coastal locations. Spike in the PNA would allow upstream ridging to dump into a downstream trough, that will likely dig enough southeastward to pick up Atlantic moisture. January should be better I think. Despite it looking cold, I don't think it will be balls cold all the time which means we may have some storms to go along with it. Despite the -EPO..it's a rather volatile pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Just saw the 12z NAM and it's got over 0.25" QPF for some of our ME/NH folks ending 00z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 January should be better I think. Despite it looking cold, I don't think it will be balls cold all the time which means we may have some storms to go along with it. Despite the -EPO..it's a rather volatile pattern. PNA spike positive in the early goings for January, that should favor at least east coast chances for snowfall here in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 I'm really starting to like the end of December for an event for coastal locations. Spike in the PNA would allow upstream ridging to dump into a downstream trough, that will likely dig enough southeastward to pick up Atlantic moisture. January should be better I think. Despite it looking cold, I don't think it will be balls cold all the time which means we may have some storms to go along with it. Despite the -EPO..it's a rather volatile pattern. Every reload brings chances and reloads should be once a week on average per what Leon told me earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Just saw the 12z NAM and it's got over 0.25" QPF for some of our ME/NH folks ending 00z Friday. GFS has barely anything, I'd be surprised if it shows anything at 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Hopefully January isn't the intense cold, cutter, repeat pattern. Is that the risk here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Hopefully January isn't the intense cold, cutter, repeat pattern. Is that the risk here? I don't believe so, but you never know with the PV lurking around, but the PNA spikes should at least keep the troughing away from the western US coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Hopefully January isn't the intense cold, cutter, repeat pattern. Is that the risk here? Well you can always have a cutter, but I don't think it's an 80s style pattern. Seems like it will be a pattern that has clippers and maybe a strong low coming up from the southwest hopefully going underneath us. Sometimes when the next arctic front drives south, it moderates for a day or two before the hammer drops again. I envision something like this for a couple of weeks at least. I also would not be shocked at a very bitter blast or two. New Years Day might be one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Well you can always have a cutter, but I don't think it's an 80s style pattern. Seems like it will be a pattern that has clippers and maybe a strong low coming up from the southwest hopefully going underneath us. Sometimes when the next arctic front drives south, it moderates for a day or two before the hammer drops again. I envision something like this for a couple of weeks at least. I also would not be shocked at a very bitter blast or two. New Years Day might be one of them. Maybe we can get a pacific disturbance to run over the ridge and down into the eastern US trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Well you can always have a cutter, but I don't think it's an 80s style pattern. Seems like it will be a pattern that has clippers and maybe a strong low coming up from the southwest hopefully going underneath us. Sometimes when the next arctic front drives south, it moderates for a day or two before the hammer drops again. I envision something like this for a couple of weeks at least. I also would not be shocked at a very bitter blast or two. New Years Day might be one of them. The last clipper obviously didn't pan out in this area. However, there seems to be a lot of potential with those to drop several inches of snow. Would also love a couple of real bitter blasts, we having had many in recent years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 We will be primed for some bitter cold blasts...for the first time in years we'll have the PV on the N.A. side of the globe rather than over in Asia where they've had a run of bitter cold winters. That looks to change this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Just saw the 12z NAM and it's got over 0.25" QPF for some of our ME/NH folks ending 00z Friday.Euro has some. Some patchy 0.10"s across VT/NH and then more as you get into Maine. 0.25" toward EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Maybe we can get a pacific disturbance to run over the ridge and down into the eastern US trough. The last clipper obviously didn't pan out in this area. However, there seems to be a lot of potential with those to drop several inches of snow. Would also love a couple of real bitter blasts, we having had many in recent years This pattern is usually good for those clippers that drop 3-6" in several hours. OES type enhancement for james. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 This pattern is usually good for those clippers that drop 3-6" in several hours. OES type enhancement for james. With a Positive PNA in view, can't wait for some favorable clipper tracks. Its about time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Pretty mild signal for Sunday 12/29. In Leon's year, the nice fluff job 12/29 gave way to a 2 day big torch to ring in 1994. The next arctic boundary dropped 1/2-3 and it was off to the races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Downslope dandy this weekend and then its probably off to the races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Downslope dandy this weekend and then its probably off to the races. Amazingly similar to "that winter" as the hammer was cocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Amazingly similar to "that winter" as the hammer was cocked. The pattern could be very deja vu...the PNA looks slightly more elevated vs that winter...but that may not be a permanent feature in this pattern. We'll have to wait and see. But that blocking north of AK into the arctic ocean is almost a carbon copy of Jan 1994. So I think we are primed for some bitter cold at times. I do think the snow events will be mixed in too...the +NAO and steroid block north of AK is a good pattern for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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