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December pattern discussion, part II


Typhoon Tip

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Might get an inch or so north of the pike and higher elevations on the 26th.

 

Another north of the pike special, I hope we get some blocking in here for January otherwise we will have too many events for the north of the pike region than south of the pike.

With or without blocking, north wins. Climo.

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I think the pattern becomes conducive for a nice snow event sometime around NYE, perhaps the 29th on towards the New Year.  +PNA spikes to +1 SD and the AO goes negative.  I think we can end up with the Polar Vortex over New England for a time in the future, near future rather than later.  Whether or not its conducive for a snowstorm that is just up to a disturbance coming through the flow.

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Might get an inch or so north of the pike and higher elevations on the 26th.

I could see that blossom a bit along eastern MA too. There's definitely a signal with that much vorticity advection into the area for snow showers or a more concentrated area of light snow in CNE towards the coastal areas.

I like these little events as it's usually favorable nickel and dime stuff up here. But looks like the core of the vort max punches through CNE, so enhanced chances in that area.

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I could see that blossom a bit along eastern MA too. There's definitely a signal with that much vorticity advection into the area for snow showers or a more concentrated area of light snow in CNE towards the coastal areas.

I like these little events as it's usually favorable nickel and dime stuff up here. But looks like the core of the vort max punches through CNE, so enhanced chances in that area.

 

Srly flow cooks us here. Rain FTL.

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I'm really starting to like the end of December for an event for coastal locations.  Spike in the PNA would allow upstream ridging to dump into a downstream trough, that will likely dig enough southeastward to pick up Atlantic moisture.

 

January should be better I think. Despite it looking cold, I don't think it will be balls cold all the time which means we may have some storms to go along with it.  Despite the -EPO..it's a rather volatile pattern.

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January should be better I think. Despite it looking cold, I don't think it will be balls cold all the time which means we may have some storms to go along with it.  Despite the -EPO..it's a rather volatile pattern.

 

PNA spike positive in the early goings for January, that should favor at least east coast chances for snowfall here in New England.

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I'm really starting to like the end of December for an event for coastal locations.  Spike in the PNA would allow upstream ridging to dump into a downstream trough, that will likely dig enough southeastward to pick up Atlantic moisture.

 

January should be better I think. Despite it looking cold, I don't think it will be balls cold all the time which means we may have some storms to go along with it.  Despite the -EPO..it's a rather volatile pattern.

Every reload brings chances and reloads should be once a week on average per what Leon told me earlier today.

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Hopefully January isn't the intense cold, cutter, repeat pattern.

Is that the risk here?

 

Well you can always have a cutter, but I don't think it's an 80s style pattern. Seems like it will be a pattern that has clippers and maybe a strong low coming up from the southwest hopefully going underneath us.  Sometimes when the next arctic front drives south, it moderates for a day or two before the hammer drops again. I envision something like this for a couple of weeks at least. I also would not be shocked at a very bitter blast or two. New Years Day might be one of them.

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Well you can always have a cutter, but I don't think it's an 80s style pattern. Seems like it will be a pattern that has clippers and maybe a strong low coming up from the southwest hopefully going underneath us.  Sometimes when the next arctic front drives south, it moderates for a day or two before the hammer drops again. I envision something like this for a couple of weeks at least. I also would not be shocked at a very bitter blast or two. New Years Day might be one of them.

 

Maybe we can get a pacific disturbance to run over the ridge and down into the eastern US trough.

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Well you can always have a cutter, but I don't think it's an 80s style pattern. Seems like it will be a pattern that has clippers and maybe a strong low coming up from the southwest hopefully going underneath us. Sometimes when the next arctic front drives south, it moderates for a day or two before the hammer drops again. I envision something like this for a couple of weeks at least. I also would not be shocked at a very bitter blast or two. New Years Day might be one of them.

The last clipper obviously didn't pan out in this area. However, there seems to be a lot of potential with those to drop several inches of snow.

Would also love a couple of real bitter blasts, we having had many in recent years

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Maybe we can get a pacific disturbance to run over the ridge and down into the eastern US trough.

 

 

The last clipper obviously didn't pan out in this area. However, there seems to be a lot of potential with those to drop several inches of snow.

Would also love a couple of real bitter blasts, we having had many in recent years

 

This pattern is usually good for those clippers that drop 3-6" in several hours. OES type enhancement for james.

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Amazingly similar to "that winter" as the hammer was cocked.

 

 

The pattern could be very deja vu...the PNA looks slightly more elevated vs that winter...but that may not be a permanent feature in this pattern. We'll have to wait and see. But that blocking north of AK into the arctic ocean is almost a carbon copy of Jan 1994. So I think we are primed for some bitter cold at times.

 

I do think the snow events will be mixed in too...the +NAO and steroid block north of AK is a good pattern for us.

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