Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 It's a freaking torch...what are you going to do. We have them all the time. I saw a 30"+ snowpack vaporize in January 1996. That was with a screaming soueaster ..Now that was a strong s/w..this is different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 It's a freaking torch...what are you going to do. We have them all the time. I saw a 30"+ snowpack vaporize in January 1996. When do you think our next legit shot at snow is? That storm next thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I just can't talk about it anymore.. Get out there and sled with Bruce Schwoegler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 When do you think our next legit shot at snow is? That storm next thursday? That is a low chance IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The snow here is all powder, it's going to be gone in the first hour. Yesterday the pack went from over a foot to 8" just because we hit 35F. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 It's a freaking torch...what are you going to do. We have them all the time. I saw a 30"+ snowpack vaporize in January 1996. lol yep. Even in the ski mountains we see thaws probably 3-4 times per winter on average...you can bank on it raining once a month in some fashion. Without blocking in the NAO region, and any SE Ridge, these storms will keep lifting more northward than desired. We may luck out like recently and get a bunch of snow, but we could also have these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 We haven't had blocking all winter. Sne is above for snow and below for temps. What's the status in NNE? We didn't have blocking in 1993-94 or 1992-93. Both blockbusters for snow and 93-94 was brutal non stop cold. There is a lot to the equation. EPO to get the cold in Canada but I'm not sure it's as dominant force as we think. Solar? Activity but a weak sun now but now do we explain a hot July? Apt of intrigue here.lol...yes Jerry but it doesn't take a lot to get SNE above normal in snowfall in Dec. It takes one or two systems which is what happened. We are running near normal up here.All I'm saying is without blocking (like Coastal has been saying) we run the risk of cutters or inland runners. Maybe we get a few snowy ones followed by some wet ones. It will all be ok though, it's winter in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 lol yep. Even in the ski mountains we see thaws probably 3-4 times per winter on average...you can bank on it raining once a month in some fashion. Without blocking in the NAO region, and any SE Ridge, these storms will keep lifting more northward than desired. We may luck out like recently and get a bunch of snow, but we could also have these systems. This is a combo of a couple of things and was modeled well in advance...like 10 days ago. If we get these SW cutoffs then you run the risk. I like the pattern moving forward as a whole. I cannot comment on storm track, but the pieces of the puzzle are there for a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 still just enough S-8h NNW flow tues pm/wed to maybe sneak out a few OE flurries or snow showers. bends anymore W and it's not happening, but the signal remains for now. as for scooter's point about NE MA holding on to the snowpack...if the euro is right, they almost certainly do. LWM hits the middle 40s tomorrow...but then the front sags into that area and they actually go below freezing and then never sniff 40F again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 My comment wasn't to say we'll get cutters....I meant that we may see a Couple of messy storms before things reorganize for early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 That is a low chance IMO. How come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 How come? Because it could be more of a fropa or even rain. The chance is there, but I need to see more evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 My comment wasn't to say we'll get cutters....I meant that we may see a Couple of messy storms before things reorganize for early January. Yeah and I'm not saying that either....but without blocking we are going to run the risk of messy storms. It still doesn't look like a pattern that's going to be creating slow moving coastal bombs with snow for all. Still looks fast flow to me and you just want to be on the right side of the gradient. I could see it going cold and dry for a while though too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Don't be surprised if we need two-three successive pushes of colder air to finally get established. What do I mean? Well, I mean that we may have to go through an inside runner or two...or messy SWFE to finally get things established. See the GFS op runs as to what I mean. That's typically what happens and Leon himself had a few ks before he started hitting the long ball 20 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Yeah and I'm not saying that either....but without blocking we are going to run the risk of messy storms. It still doesn't look like a pattern that's going to be creating slow moving coastal bombs with snow for all. Still looks fast flow to me and you just want to be on the right side of the gradient. I could see it going cold and dry for a while though too. I think the chances for coastals may increase as ridging tries to push east towards the west coast US. Otherwise yes it's more of a SWFE deal. Personally I cannot complain about December but I'm probably the highest anomaly around regarding snowfall at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Hype meltdown in progress along with his snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 That's typically what happens and Leon himself had a few ks before he started hitting the long ball 20 years ago. Yeah I still like what I see going forward. As long as people keep the expectations reasonable, we'll be fine. Nothing has changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Hype meltdown in progress along with his snowpack. ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 ??? Get out there and sled, it'll be gone tomorrow. Why are you in here posting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 this idea of the front dragging its feet on monday and just making that a rainy day is gaining a bit of traction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 this idea of the front dragging its feet on monday and just making that a rainy day is gaining a bit of traction. Joy, look forward to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Get out there and sled, it'll be gone tomorrow. Why are you in here posting? I still have 9-10 inches.it's cloudy...It won't be gone until Sunday nite.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Joy, look forward to it right? i guess might as well get some rain out the whole deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I still have 9-10 inches.it's cloudy...It won't be gone until Sunday nite.. It's a nice fortified pack that will last as long as it can, unlike some other packs that just had fluff on top of fluff. It'll be gone for sure, but we can rebuild. January might turn out to be a good month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 It's a nice fortified pack that will last as long as it can, unlike some other packs that just had fluff on top of fluff. It'll be gone for sure, but we can rebuild. January might turn out to be a good month!Theres a fair chance it starts again next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Snowpack fighting off warm is overrated. It can win a round or two when their opponent is marginal but up against decent fronts, it cant win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 If some of those more aggressive members are right, New Year's Eve could be a stormy night: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 94 had blocking GEFS and euro ens have this look moving into January. We'll see of it pans out but jb hype notwithstanding, there's guidance suggesting this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Analysis suffers due to the whining and opining about the warm-up slated for this weekend. Not even etched in stone for N of the Pike, either. Also, even the warmest NAM solution have a slight inversion between the T1 and T2 in the FRH grid, signaling that the regardless of these machine derived 2-m products, the bottom of the boundary layer is going to be a little challenged, albeit still above normal. But the chorus of complaint is too busy and is missing a sneaky signal. After the more important wave passes through central NE later Sunday, we are not out of the woods for more activity. It occurs to me that there is a significant L/W axis still well west of even the App cordillera, pressing through the Lakes. Granted, it is not good that a 4-D Euro solution does nothing with it, but that is still precarious considering the baroclinic axis is still near-by/failed to evacuated off-shore. In fact, the less reliable NAM has for 3 cycles now persistently expanded new column of precipitation back up the EC heading toward Xmass Eve. Cisco also picks up on this interesting set up: RELIED ON THE 00Z/20 GEFS MEAN FOR DAYS 3-5 AND THE 00Z/20 ECENS MEAN FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. THE FLOW PATTERN AT THE MEDIUM RANGE ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES--PARTICULARLY FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EASTWARD--IS FAR FROM BEING SORTED OUT. HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION AND PHASING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT OCCURS OVER THE MIDWEST DAY 3 IS CRITICAL TO THE COVERAGE, INTENSITY, AND PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE EAST THROUGH DAY 4--AND PERHAPS INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. It's low confidence ...of course, but there is options for wintry activity still on the table post the warm snow-pack apocalypse through Sunday morning. yeah the wave is there on a lot of products. problem may be getting cold back in to prevent it from being anything other than rain. sure you saw it, but there's a pretty substantial lag between the initial frontal zone and the "actual cold". of course, herein lies the trouble with anafrontal crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 yeah the wave is there on a lot of products. problem may be getting cold back in to prevent it from being anything other than rain. sure you saw it, but there's a pretty substantial lag between the initial frontal zone and the "actual cold". of course, herein lies the trouble with anafrontal crap. I actually decided to start a thread for it ... it may not garner much attention and it's probably lower priority with this icing thing and our warm up pre-occupying folks' attention, but if something comes of that, at least we will have had some attention given to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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