CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Actually some ensembles are showing signs of that block north of AK. That is something we haven't had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 It looks like there's 2 chances of snow before NYE.. Next Thursday and maybe something NYE itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 This year has the look of a winter that will produce a storm or two that will surprise lots of us. We have decent looking pattern with the -EPO and what looks like a pacific with more ridging in the medium/ long range +PNA. If we can get even some transient blocking or 50/50 low timed at the right time with a shortwave and arctic high we'll be in business. Atleast this isnt a clunker of a winter.... So far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Nice call Jerry Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi57m GFS/ECMWF/JMA setting up pattern similar to Jan 1994. http://weatherbell.com premium video discusses this pic.twitter.com/iEqWZJSPzL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 No surprise there. I think the next 3 weeks could well tell the tale for this winter. The positive AO/NAO has always concerned me even with the cold and snowy start to winter.There are three full months of winter left, and then some for far inland and higher elevation areas. A lot can happen in that time. Even if the next month is warm and dry there is still plenty of time to recover a good snow season. It's rarely going to be cold and snowy wire to wire in SNE, so you have to temper your expectations with climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Nice call Jerry Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi57m GFS/ECMWF/JMA setting up pattern similar to Jan 1994. http://weatherbell.com premium video discusses this pic.twitter.com/iEqWZJSPzL lol at following bastardi. of course he's calling for 1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 euro weeklies are ugly by week 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The CFS and weeklies at week 4 have been horrible. I didn't think it looked bad up this way for week 4 when you look at the height anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 94 had blocking Yes, it was -EPO and -AO couplet that dominated that year. The latest ensembles suggest that type of pattern going forward. But I like see trend continue into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 euro weeklies are ugly by week 4Who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 1994 had that big ridge anomaly north of AK. If that does not happen, do not use 1994. If it does happen, feel free...but I hate that analog being thrown around like candy. That's like saying every closed off low south of LI is December 1992. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 1994 had that big ridge anomaly north of AK. If that does not happen, do not use 1994. If it does happen, feel free...but I hate that analog being thrown around like candy. That's like saying every closed off low south of LI is December 1992. Like the 96' analog being thrown around during snowstorms that faintly resemble it? Lol thats good for a few times a year in a good winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I wouldn't give up hope on the light snow event for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Don't be surprised if we need two-three successive pushes of colder air to finally get established. What do I mean? Well, I mean that we may have to go through an inside runner or two...or messy SWFE to finally get things established. See the GFS op runs as to what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I wouldn't give up hope on the light snow event for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day just yet. Gone. Maybe you can grab some OES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I wouldn't give up hope on the light snow event for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day just yet. Unfotunatley It's over....green Christmas from border to border in SNE..Even on Cape Cod, Ma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Much to the chagrin of the good Rev, nrn MA will probably have a white Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Much to the chagrin of the good Rev, nrn MA will probably have a white Christmas. Nah..even they lose it..The only place that may squeak it out is MPM land..Plus Monday is a torch in ENE as it cools in western and central areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Nah..even they lose it..The only place that may squeak it out is MPM land I think Ray on north may grab one. It's all dependent on the front position. If it's 10 miles north, then no. I feel 70/30 in favor of him having one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I think Ray on north may grab one. It's all dependent on the front position. If it's 10 miles north, then no. I feel 70/30 in favor of him having one. Even so..he' roasts with rain on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I've never seen such a deep snowpack just give in at will to a weak advancing warm front in winter..Just no fight at all..even with a cold high. That really surprised me. I though most of SNE could still cool/sector until fropa Sunday night. if this was April we'd be 38 and fogged in with sheet drizzle and the front would never make it..yet in Dec a few days before Christmas..the warm air has no problem flooding into parts of NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I've never seen such a deep snowpack just give in at will to a weak advancing warm front in winter..Just no fight at all..even with a cold high. That really surprised me. I though most of SNE could still cool/sector until fropa Sunday night. As I said, a strong s/w doesn't give a phuck about snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 That is a bad misconception that snowpack saves the day. It does to a point, but eventually Ray's beast of a man s/w trumps all...especially further south in latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I've never seen such a deep snowpack just give in at will to a weak advancing warm front in winter..Just no fight at all..even with a cold high. That really surprised me. I though most of SNE could still cool/sector until fropa Sunday night. if this was April we'd be 38 and fogged in with sheet drizzle and the front would never make it..yet in Dec a few days before Christmas..the warm air has no problem flooding into parts of NNE Forky ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 If the pattern continues to be largely the same, why wouldn't it produce? It's been a heck of a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 As I said, a strong s/w doesn't give a phuck about snowpack. the thing is though..it's really not that strong a s/w..It's just a weird situation that this is happening..with the timing being the absolute worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 the thing is though..it's really not that strong a s/w..It's just a weird situation that this is happening..with the timing being the absolute worst That is a strong s/w. The whole SW cutoff ejects NE. That combined with a strong SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 That is a strong s/w. The whole SW cutoff ejects NE. That combined with a strong SE ridge. I just can't talk about it anymore.. Get out there and sled with Bruce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I think winter is almost always dicey for those of us who want constant cold and snow. But the big picture at least for New england (not so much for forkyville) continues to look good with ridging out west/epac, a fairly active southern stream, the vortex on our side (and coming south?), and the possibility of the AO going negative in early Jan. if the AO goes negative I'd bet we get some -NAO action for a little bit and that would help our friends and admirers south of here. In the relaxations it might rain or ice...like this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 It's a freaking torch...what are you going to do. We have them all the time. I saw a 30"+ snowpack vaporize in January 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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