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12/17 Clipper Observations


NorEastermass128

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I didn't spike anything....that fact that we're due for a good season relative to the rest of the region is relevant to the fact that we just jackpotted in these first two significant events.

Infer from that what you wish.

Do the dew, its going to due whatever it wants. Miller B year , you rack it up faster than Gronk racks up injury days.

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Just a slaughter along the coast last night.

 

After my meltdown and having a night to reflect on it, the overall forecast was pretty good (timing, gradient, etc.) What wasn't anticipated was the extreme rates right along the coast, and really not much further inland. We always knew it would be a borderline event (high end advisory or low end warning), and with most of our reports coming from inland I think we (at least I know I did) got fooled into thinking the forecast was on track, with maybe a few 6 or 6.5" reports in the morning.

 

This was the big red flag that I should've put more weight behind. That sounding at 00z last night peaked at -8 C. Given the influx of Atlantic moisture and likelihood of sea salt nuclei, that means a good 300 mb (from about 650 mb to the surface) was solidly within the DGZ. That's a recipe for 20-30:1 ratios, and 3"/hr type stuff. Lake effect snow really.

 

post-44-0-21353400-1387393370_thumb.jpg

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Just a slaughter along the coast last night.

 

After my meltdown and having a night to reflect on it, the overall forecast was pretty good (timing, gradient, etc.) What wasn't anticipated was the extreme rates right along the coast, and really not much further inland. We always knew it would be a borderline event (high end advisory or low end warning), and with most of our reports coming from inland I think we (at least I know I did) got fooled into thinking the forecast was on track, with maybe a few 6 or 6.5" reports in the morning.

 

This was the big red flag that I should've put more weight behind. That sounding at 00z last night peaked at -8 C. Given the influx of Atlantic moisture and likelihood of sea salt nuclei, that means a good 300 mb (from about 650 mb to the surface) was solidly within the DGZ. That's a recipe for 20-30:1 ratios, and 3"/hr type stuff. Lake effect snow really.

 

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Nice now you can start worrying about a more damaging life threatening situation, man thats an ugly ice storm for your zones

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