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12/17 Clipper Observations


NorEastermass128

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Well that's almost half the forecast area. And seems S and E CT was pretty meager too. And most of CT in C and N areas seems to be around 4". It's a low end event IMO for all but 2 or 3 counties in MA. And all those other counties either won't verify or will come in at bottom of the range. I don't see that as nailing it. What I do see this as is typical passive aggressive trolling by you - but that's just your MO on here...and like I've said before, you take the fun out of this.

i actually think box did pretty damn well...given the system...def did better in ORH county than most thought suffolk county as well

I think they did OK. I definitely thought they were too aggressive up north - said that earlier. but that will verify fine. But RI and a good chunk of SE MA they'll be off by like 5". They get an "A" up north, no argument.

Funny thing is, I don't even care - lol. It's actually just a response to Kevin who knows exactly what he's doing when he posts.

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Well that's almost half the forecast area. And seems S and E CT was pretty meager too. And most of CT in C and N areas seems to be around 4". It's a low end event IMO for all but 2 or 3 counties in MA. And all those other counties either won't verify or will come in at bottom of the range. I don't see that as nailing it. What I do see this as is typical passive aggressive trolling by you - but that's just your MO on here...and like I've said before, you take the fun out of this.

 

Sadly for a lot of us at times.  I think you guys all spend too much time answering or counterbalancing stuff.  Better to just let it slide for the continuity of the board.

 

Box did a good job highlighting the top end and the most likely zone it would occur.  I'd agree they overshot in 50% of the zones.  I think we even discussed it at the time...warnings seemed okay to me...I thought we would pull 2" here which we barely did.  2-4"  that was aggressive given the models.

 

Anyway 0z RAP is onboard for some stuff late tonight.  With my luck probably too warm and it'll be OER.   After about 1 or 2am bands should develop as the 8h low takes shape and sweep down along EMA.

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Lol right. They are plowing here, but really just creating sparks. Tough not to though, can't really just put down salt, won't work. Kind of caught in between.

But hey, it's still snowing here, so not all is totally lost

I look forward to seeing how are totals differ through the winter. We are a solid 8-10 miles apart. Will be interesting for sure

I think the difference is like 5". I'm ~40" and you're ~45". TAN does have some interesting differences from one side to the other on climate. CF's tend to bisect us on occasion.

It is festive outside. Was not a wet or tainted snow at all.

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Some epic meltdowns on twitter from people in southeast ma. Tweeting at any meteorologist with a twitter lol.

It was a bust nobody could have predicted. And it's not like we were expecting 2 feet. Some people need to relax

 

 

Again in SE MA...interior SE MA and RI if you go back and look at the models....it was pretty well sniffed out before this morning. 

 

Here's the 12z 4km nam snowfall thingie...this was VERY good in eastern areas.

post-3232-0-55299800-1387330657_thumb.jp

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Not often Boston metro sits on the better side of the CF for so long... Just beautiful fluff out there.

 

Ginx, my most spectacular blizzard footage (from 1/22/05) was shot from that exact spot, in Longwood medical area.

 

Fella, let's see what we get out of this stuff currently over 495 as it swings out...

 

 

Yeah Messenger, NOAA did really well on this. Banding was so critical to what's on the ground (vs. a widespread synoptic warning-criteria snowfall), no wonder models like GFS struggled and RAP/HRRR did better. The 4pm AFD by Sipprell could not have been more accurate.

 

And speaking of frontogenic banding and steep lapse rates... any reports of convection anywhere?

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I was also correct in models being too warm here. Looks like 31F was the high which is ~4-5F cooler than what I saw. Great learning experience with this one.

It mixed with sleet here as the low passed, and about 5 miles south of me it turned to Rain for a while in New Bedford Center. But yeah, it was def a colder storm that modeled just inland.

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Well........ There are some great things about this storm.  I pretty much nailed my forecast (2.5") with 1-2 last night and this morning, which is Way under what everything I saw was (2-4, 3-6, 4-8) and me A. going Under all predictions is Very rare, and B. I got it right.  

 

Just didn't feel it.  But.... I didn't think i wouldn't get the moderate amounts because of ANOTHER SCREW ZONE over the Whole flipping State again.  Ugh.  I thought It just wasn't going to happen.  Which I guess, that's what happened..... but I just HATE the idea of a RI screw zone Again!  

 

 

 

 

12" for the Season.  Not Good.  Sledding tomorrow can only be ok with a 1" ice base and 2" of powder.  Then it all melts and I go back to square 1 around Christmas with only 2 days of sledding up to that point.  

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