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12/17 Clipper Observations


NorEastermass128

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RAP and HRRR were both pretty good, HRRR I thought took awhile to catch on...it was way overdone to the west this morning as some of the taggers there noted.  RAP seemed to have a very good grasp most of the day.   Couple of off hours..but good overall.

Good job on this.

You and Box.

 

I missed the boat on this.

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Still not so sure. See tips post

 

This...?

"that warmth probably won't translate to the sfc too well.   The snow pack will take a huge hit, and may disappear outside of piles at that, but ... albido combined with a snow pack at this time of year will negatively feed-back and will effect on the sounding.  

 

What I think is weird is that here we are going along with this persistent cold and then there's just this errant short duration mega-spike."

 

...Not exactly anything that hints at a non-torch scenario.

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We were mentioning BOS and NE MA as a jack in this, this morning. You didn't see our posts?

 

 

Prime spot for the 6" lollis we were saying since yesterday.

 

 

Though even back to ORH is going to get 6"+...the widespread nature of it was picked up well by BOX.

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Good job on this.

You and Box.

 

I missed the boat on this.

 

Eh I was more excited about the potential tonight...still hoping for some wrap back/oes style stuff but the low structure seems pretty meager at this point.

 

Models did a good of pinpointing boston as the center of some good action and points north. 

 

Meanwhile most models at least hint at precip developing again over the Cape towards midnight.  Dry air may be a problem...but the RAP is going more and more robust on at least some reasonable returns over most of the Cape from midnight until early morning.  At times having up to .2 or so.   Will have to see on that.

 

 

 

Phil and I keep getting the shaft so to speak.  The low waited to get organized about an hour late and kind of hosed us out of another inch or two as the bands didn't form until about Exit 3/4 on rte 3.

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4-6"...right, lollis......sorry, but imo over 7" of snow does not constitute 4-6" with lollis to 6".

 

 

Well lollis to 6-7"....if we have a lot of 8 spots, then I agree. But 6 to 7 is splitting hairs.

 

 

We might get some 8 spots though, this band is still going pretty good.

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Various RAP runs have been close later tonight.  The most recent 23z is a little less aggressive but has 20dbz over most of the cape for a few hours late tonight.  We'll have to see how this plays out in the next few hours.

i think E PYM county and especially the mid-outer  cape see something between 10-4am....call me crazy but i do and it could be noteworthy IMO

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