RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Seems like overnight we had the GFS trend sligthly NW at 6z and the Euro trend slightly SE at 00z. The NAM is off to the races with a NW track now it seems. Hopefully it's wrong for those hoping for a quick change over to snow. The further NW track would pretty much put an end to any hopes of snow after the front goes through. If we don't have at least a couple inches of snow on the ground that would likley mitigate the severe cold to some degree. Really envious of those guys out in the midwest, they look to get a bonafied blizzard with insanely cold temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Looks like latest runs showing maybe 2-3" which would be fine.....better than dry and freezing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Its gonna be interesting with the dynamics of the cold front coming through and the changeover. Mondays commute is looking rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Its gonna be interesting with the dynamics of the cold front coming through and the changeover. Mondays commute is looking rough.Absolutely....prob too late in the game now for any change in storm track?.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 What temperature is required to throw boiling water into the air and have it freeze into ice crystals? I always thought it was -30 or lower, but in an article in the trib (http://triblive.com/news/adminpage/5359184-74/ski-wind-chill#axzz2pTTmaVWn) they stated the Mets at the NWS in Moon were planning to do it Monday night. Just curious, if we get cold enough that would be fun to try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Looks like latest runs showing maybe 2-3" which would be fine.....better than dry and freezing! Not sure about that now, everything seems to have trended NW so we get less wrap around moisture. None of todays runs of the NAM or GFS show much snow but I really hope thats wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Video from accuweather was saying there will still be considerable back end stuff for the western 1/4 of PA.....I'm just hoping at this point and see what things look like tomorrow after the 12z comes out tomorrow although prob too late for any shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I am not going to look at the qpf and snow maps. They don't tell the full story, we just have to see how quickly the changeover happens and if theres still moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Not sure about that now, everything seems to have trended NW so we get less wrap around moisture. None of todays runs of the NAM or GFS show much snow but I really hope thats wrong. NWS is thinking the same thing. They started off forecasting 1-2. Then they changed to around an inch. Now, it's less than an inch. Looks like another miss at this point. We may have one of our coldest air masses ever with very little snow on the ground after the melting tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 NWS is thinking the same thing. They started off forecasting 1-2. Then they changed to around an inch. Now, it's less than an inch. Looks like another miss at this point. We may have one of our coldest air masses ever with very little snow on the ground after the melting tomorrow. Yeah, the system strengthened to much and is running to far NW and thus slowing the cold front to our area. 00z NAM has 0 snow, I think the 18z GFS had about a half inch. I was looking forward to watching rain rapidly change to snow and have it blowing all around. Honestly the severe cold is pretty much useless without snow cover, although as a weather enthusiasit I am still rooting for a record low. Friday was a pretty amazing day, it was sunny all day but the snow stuck around everywhere with the cold temperatures. Even though we only got 2-3 inches it being so cold while the snow fell made it better than a bigger storm followed by 40s the next day in my opinion. Still time to tweak it, and if we can manage a solid 2 inches I think it will make it worthwhile. Looks like we have a shot at one more light snow towards the end of the week before the warm spell, then hopefully things reload and we have some more storm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Im with you guys this storm cut too far NW and now we probably wont see any snow. Looks like light snow at the end of the week and then a warmup. Hopefully after the warm up we can get a decent snow storm. Its been awhile since we have seen a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 We may have one of our coldest air masses ever with very little snow on the ground after the melting tomorrow. Lots of potential for black ice, with leftover rain puddles, or melting snow re-freezing. Be careful out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Lots of potential for black ice, with leftover rain puddles, or melting snow re-freezing. Be careful out there... Yes be careful. I saw 2 accidents tonight in my area from black ice. After the extreme cold Monday and Tuesday I am looking forward to some overrunning snows Wed and Thursday. Hopefully we can get a decent couple of days of snow before the warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 Wind Chill Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 353 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014 MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057-058-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-073- 074-076-WVZ001-023-041-051700- /O.UPG.KPBZ.WC.A.0001.140106T1800Z-140108T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KPBZ.WC.W.0001.140106T1800Z-140108T1500Z/ GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON- JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE- BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA- WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-PRESTON- TUCKER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...NEW PHILADELPHIA... CARROLLTON...SALEM...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...STEUBENVILLE... ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...GROVE CITY...FRANKLIN...TIONESTA... NEW CASTLE...BUTLER...CLARION...BROOKVILLE...BEAVER... PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...INDIANA...GREENSBURG... LATROBE...LIGONIER...DONEGAL...CHAMPION...OHIOPYLE...WEIRTON... KINGWOOD...PARSONS 353 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014 ...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TIMING...BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON IN OHIO...THEN SPREADING EAST MONDAY EVENING INTO PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...AND WESTERN MARYLAND MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. * WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...TURNING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY TO AROUND 8 TO 15 BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT...RECOVERING TO 3 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO TUESDAY THEN FALLING TO 5 BELOW TO 2 ABOVE ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. * WIND CHILL...25 TO 40 BELOW ZERO IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AS LOW AS 45 BELOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MONDAY NIGHT...20 TO 30 BELOW ON TUESDAY...AND 15 TO 25 BELOW TUESDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...FROST BITE AND HYPOTHERMIA ARE POSSIBLE IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WIND WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. DO NOT VENTURE OUTDOORS UNLESS YOU ARE PROPERLY DRESSED FOR THE CONDITIONS. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I love Bernies videos he analyzes the storm and not just qpf maps. http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/midwest-snowstorm-rain-to-sno/2430839568001?channel=top_story Long story short he thinks we could possibly see 3-6 inches with rapid freeze over from rain. Could be a horrible commute monday morning. Thats the first time I've seen Bernie....that was a great discussion......we'll see what today's runs bring...regardless he thinks the back end will be more impressive than usual...... The Gfs hasn't really changed in regards to the 500 mb setup. So I guess at this point, Bernie's all we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Agreed but all the local mets as well as weather channel going with 1-3 tonight....we'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Agreed but all the local mets as well as weather channel going with 1-3 tonight....we'll see! Yeah, and even that would be a win at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Posted this in the Central PA forum in reply to Burghblizz but figured I'd share it here...remarkable snow stats for Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh has quietly become Snowburgh in the last 11 years. Since 2002-2003, y'all have had... 2 normal snowfall winters 3 below-normal snowfall winters 6 (!) above-normal snowfall winters During the infamous winter of 2011-2012, PIT got 36.9, not that far below the normal of 41.9. The 11 year average is a remarkable 49.5. This year, same thing. YTD average 12.4. Current year is 26.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Wait do we have 27 inches total so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Wait do we have 27 inches total so far? Although technically the numbers don't lie. Let's just say we've had more dimes, than nickles so far. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Wait do we have 27 inches total so far? Although technically the numbers don't lie. Let's just say we've had more dimes, than nickles so far. lol Yeah. Two 3"+ events and a lot of dimes, as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I just want that one storm that closes down the city for a day. Is that too much to ask? According to my barber we are supposed to get a blizzard in February. I believe it, Pittsburgh barbers are never wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I just want that one storm that closes down the city for a day. Is that too much to ask? According to my barber we are supposed to get a blizzard in February. I believe it, Pittsburgh barbers are never wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Posted this in the Central PA forum in reply to Burghblizz but figured I'd share it here...remarkable snow stats for Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh has quietly become Snowburgh in the last 11 years. Since 2002-2003, y'all have had... 2 normal snowfall winters 3 below-normal snowfall winters 6 (!) above-normal snowfall winters During the infamous winter of 2011-2012, PIT got 36.9, not that far below the normal of 41.9. The 11 year average is a remarkable 49.5. This year, same thing. YTD average 12.4. Current year is 26.9 Pretty incredible. Well on our way to another 50 inch season if we keep this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Posted this in the Central PA forum in reply to Burghblizz but figured I'd share it here...remarkable snow stats for Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh has quietly become Snowburgh in the last 11 years. Since 2002-2003, y'all have had... 2 normal snowfall winters 3 below-normal snowfall winters 6 (!) above-normal snowfall winters During the infamous winter of 2011-2012, PIT got 36.9, not that far below the normal of 41.9. The 11 year average is a remarkable 49.5. This year, same thing. YTD average 12.4. Current year is 26.9 Yeah, quietly is right. Especially for this season. That total is quite remarkable considering they achieved that amount without any kind of major storm so far. Up until this past Thursday, I can't really think of one instance so far that I've had more than an inch on the ground, imby. That's A LOT of nickle and dime snows. Just goes to show how a lot of very minor amounts can still add up. Definitely not my cup of tea, but that's just me. I'd rather go through a winter with one major snowstorm giving us a foot with no other snows, than a winter with a lot of half inch and inch snowfalls, but no major storm. I'm a storm guy, what can I say. I don't really like small nuisance snows which is mostly what we get around here. Even worse in Bethel Park and south where the warm tongue of storms come into play a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 305 PM EST SUN JAN 5 2014 OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029- 031-073-075-WVZ001>004-012-021-022-060415- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0002.140106T0600Z-140106T2100Z/ /O.CON.KPBZ.WC.W.0001.140106T1800Z-140108T1500Z/ TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH- MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST- LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG- INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE- OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...CARROLLTON...SALEM... COSHOCTON...CADIZ...STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE... ST. CLAIRSVILLE...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...GROVE CITY...FRANKLIN... TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...BUTLER...CLARION...BROOKVILLE...BEAVER... PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...INDIANA...WASHINGTON... WAYNESBURG...GREENSBURG...LATROBE...UNIONTOWN...WEIRTON... BETHANY...WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT... MORGANTOWN 305 PM EST SUN JAN 5 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY... ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW AND A FLASH FREEZE...IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND 1 INCH. * PRECIPITATION TIMING...RAIN THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT. * TEMPERATURE TIMING...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER 1 AM. A FLASH FREEZE OF WET SURFACES IS EXPECTED. * TEMPERATURES...HIGHS MONDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO. HIGHS TUESDAY OF 3 BELOW TO 3 ABOVE ZERO. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT OF 5 BELOW TO 3 ABOVE ZERO. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. * WIND CHILL...AS LOW AS 20 TO 40 BELOW ZERO. * IMPACTS...FROST BITE AND HYPOTHERMIA ARE POSSIBLE IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. ICY SURFACES WILL LEAD TO POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WIND WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. DO NOT VENTURE OUTDOORS UNLESS YOU ARE PROPERLY DRESSED FOR THE CONDITIONS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT SNOW AND A FLASH FREEZE OF WET ROADS WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING AND REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING 412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I would be ecstatic with 2 inches if we got it. At least have some kind of snow pack to help with the potential record cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 So what do you all think local schools are going to do? Closed Tuesday seems a forgon conclusion, but what about tomorrow? Delay would be pointless as conditions will deteriorate as the day goes on, and early dismisals could end up being timed during the time the second arctic front blasts through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 How about you phone the University of Pittsburgh and tell them to cancel classes so I don't have to go to class the next two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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