Rdd9108 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Its not that Im disappointed in this winter. I just want a huge snow storm. I was very young in 93 and in 2010 I wasn't tracking storms so that one came out of nowhere. In the winter I am a weather nerd, in the summer I look outside and go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Don't look now but the Euro for the next storm after Thursdays showed a triple phaser. If only this would stay there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Light snow has been falling for the last 45 minutes or so. Also.. 12z Euro looking good for end of the work week. As of now, yes, 12z Euro deterministic seems to agree with the ensemble mean fairly well. Potential is there for a light-moderate snow event Thursday afternoon into the overnight hours. Two things that I like about this set-up are the high pressure to the north, helping to supply cold air, and the 850 hPa low now projected to track south of PIT. We may get in on some easterly flow at 850 hPa Thursday evening-night that could enhance the precip. Too early for precip. forecasts, but the 12z Euro today is looking better than previous deterministic runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Don't look now but the Euro for the next storm after Thursdays showed a triple phaser. If only this would stay there. I wish I had access to the maps, although its unlikely to verify it sure would be nice to look at! Anyways, looks like the Thursday storm is looking more favorable for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Heres the 12z maps Looks to be an interesting part of winter for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I wish I had access to the maps, although its unlikely to verify it sure would be nice to look at! Anyways, looks like the Thursday storm is looking more favorable for our area. Ritual, you can get ECMWF forecasts from these Web sites: 1) Penn State e-Wall: www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski --> links are in the left panel 2) ECMWF Web site: www.ecmwf.int --> only source I know of to get ensemble mean/spread for free --> click "Forecasts" at top, then click Ensemble Prediction System 3) Wunderground wundermap: http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ --> select "Model Data" from the right panel and click ECMWF. Lets you view 0z and 12z runs. CAUTION using the QPF on the MSL plots, though -- sometimes they add the previous period's precip to the given period's precip., when I think the intent is to display 3-hour precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 We got 1.7" of snow today believe it or not. It was nice snow globe stuff but its amazing how it was basically zero impact over the course of the day. I guess the roads were coated in spots for a while. Just the type of day that jacks up or totals when no one is really paying attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I will be driving back to Pittsburgh on Wednesday. I have been reading the posts. I have to go through Erie and I see they are under a wsw for wed. How things looking in Pitt? According to Nws snow will be late wed. I will be getting on the road early. I appreciate the updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I will be driving back to Pittsburgh on Wednesday. I have been reading the posts. I have to go through Erie and I see they are under a wsw for wed. How things looking in Pitt? According to Nws snow will be late wed. I will be getting on the road early. I appreciate the updates. be careful out there. Heres the latest 00z NAM, it finally came south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I will be driving back to Pittsburgh on Wednesday. I have been reading the posts. I have to go through Erie and I see they are under a wsw for wed. How things looking in Pitt? According to Nws snow will be late wed. I will be getting on the road early. I appreciate the updates. Yeah, be careful coming back. That area is going to get a lot from lake effect and then more from the actual low moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well, 0z Euro not looking as good.... storm is weaker and darts off to the NE. Might get 1-3" Thu PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Special Weather Statement SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1105 AM EST TUE DEC 31 2013 OHZ049-050-058-059-068-069-PAZ014>016-020>023-029-031-073>075- WVZ001>004-012-021-022-311730- ALLEGHENY PA-ARMSTRONG PA-BEAVER PA-BELMONT OH-BROOKE WV-BUTLER PA- CLARION PA-FAYETTE PA-GREENE PA-GUERNSEY OH-HANCOCK WV-HARRISON OH- INDIANA PA-JEFFERSON PA-JEFFERSON OH-MARION WV-MARSHALL WV- MONONGALIA WV-MONROE OH-NOBLE OH-OHIO WV-WASHINGTON PA- WESTMORELAND PA-WESTMORELAND RIDGES PA-WETZEL WV- 1105 AM EST TUE DEC 31 2013 ...A DANGEROUS SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT ALLEGHENY...ARMSTRONG... BELMONT...BROOKE...EAST CENTRAL GUERNSEY...EASTERN HARRISON... GREENE...HANCOCK...INDIANA...JEFFERSON...MARSHALL...NORTHEASTERN MONROE...NORTHEASTERN NOBLE...NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...NORTHWESTERN MARION...NORTHWESTERN MONONGALIA...OHIO...SOUTHERN BEAVER...SOUTHERN BUTLER...SOUTHERN CLARION...WASHINGTON...WESTMORELAND AND WETZEL COUNTIES... AT 1055 AM EST...A DANGEROUS SNOW SQUALL WAS ALONG A LINE FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CLEAR CREEK STATE PARK TO 4 MILES WEST OF CADIZ TO 3 MILES EAST OF QUAKER CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS SNOW SQUALL WILL RAPIDLY DROP VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE. ROADS MAY QUICKLY BECOME SNOW-COVERED AND SLICK. WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH WILL ALSO CAUSE BLOWING SNOW. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TOMLINSON RUN STATE PARK... NEW MANCHESTER... NEW CUMBERLAND... SUMMERVILLE... SHIPPINGPORT... RIMERSBURG... LIMESTONE... HARSHAVILLE... EVANS CITY... EAST BRADY... CHICORA... BUTLER... PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH. LAT...LON 4112 7880 4072 7879 4047 7892 3945 8063 3947 8071 3991 8132 4032 8110 4132 7894 4119 7876 $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 ^ That was a good squall that just went through the North Hills. Good thing it was short-lived or else it might have caused trouble on the roads. Side road here is partially covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 ^ That was a good squall that just went through the North Hills. Good thing it was short-lived or else it might have caused trouble on the roads. Side road here is partially covered. Yeah it was pretty decent, borderline heavy snow for about 5-6 minutes. Probbaly dropped close to .25 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Next storm looks to get .2 - .25 qpf for the area wtih some decent ratios, so the 3-5 from NWS facebook seems like a pretty good call at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ritual, you can get ECMWF forecasts from these Web sites: 1) Penn State e-Wall: www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski --> links are in the left panel 2) ECMWF Web site: www.ecmwf.int --> only source I know of to get ensemble mean/spread for free --> click "Forecasts" at top, then click Ensemble Prediction System 3) Wunderground wundermap: http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ --> select "Model Data" from the right panel and click ECMWF. Lets you view 0z and 12z runs. CAUTION using the QPF on the MSL plots, though -- sometimes they add the previous period's precip to the given period's precip., when I think the intent is to display 3-hour precip. Thanks for the links! I was aware of the PSU-Ewall but didn't know about the other 2. Anyways, looks like todays 12z GFS took a step towards the Euro solution. 12z Euro today still has a pretty strong storm too. I'm hoping it doesn't end up going to far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 0z Nam is pretty wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 0z Nam is pretty wet. Yeah, that high to the north means buisness. ( Where has that been all season ) lol. The last AFD metioned good ratios throughout the event, so it won't take much more moisture to make it a solid moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 0z Nam is pretty wet. GFS looks about the same as previous runs, to bad the NAM qpf is usually overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hey at this point I'm happy with 4"!..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Just reading some of these posts and not being able to see the models (can't wait to get home to my computer tomorrow) you would think we are getting an inch or less from this next storm. Remember to keep your expectations low this way a 3-5 inch snowfall will be exciting and not be looked at as a disappointment. I will be driving home through Erie late tomorrow morning. Hope the lake effect is turning off somewhat by then. I had a family member drive to Erie tonight and the snow stopped after dropping nearly a foot today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Even if Thursday-Friday disappoints, there's always Sunday-Monday. Still plenty of time to iron out the exact details for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sunday I see some temp issues but I hope not!....happy new year everyone! Hope you stayed safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Happy New Year guys! Be safe and here's to a stormy upcoming winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sunday I see some temp issues but I hope not!....happy new year everyone! Hope you stayed safe Yeah, I don't like when that 850 gets that close to us. It usually spells trouble for you and me. At least it's something else to check out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 There maybe no big snow storm coming next week but look at this cold air. Thats some take your breath away cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 There maybe no big snow storm coming next week but look at this cold air. Thats some take your breath away cold. Yes--even if the lower atmosphere follows a dry adiabatic lapse rate that day, the high temperature would only be about 0F at KPIT, according to this run of this model. Also, for fun since we're talking just reading the model verbatim here, this set-up would potentially yield a significant lake-effect snow event for the zones favored on a westerly flow, say from Ashtabula County, OH over to Erie and northern Crawford Counties in PA and Chautauqua and Cattaraugus Counties in NY. Quite the thermodynamic instability with -30C 850 hPa temps and a lake that's around 34-40F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Does this take in account the 2-4 inches snow pack we would have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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