RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 People moaning and groaning on the PBZ Facebook page because they got warning-criteria snow without a warning. Makes me mad. They nailed where I live, so I can't say anything bad. Looks like mostly rain here for Tuesday into Wednesday. Maybe a little backside snow? It seems to me like flooding may become a concern. Yeah, I'm not sure what they are supposed to do. The snow map they put out was pretty good. The warning system doesn't really account for a storm like this with part of the county getting a warning criteria snowfall while the other part gets a dusting. At least now they have the ridge zones on their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 People moaning and groaning on the PBZ Facebook page because they got warning-criteria snow without a warning. Makes me mad. They nailed where I live, so I can't say anything bad. Looks like mostly rain here for Tuesday into Wednesday. Maybe a little backside snow? It seems to me like flooding may become a concern. Looking at the latest models the 32 line is almost to the border of Pa/WV. The warm air aloft will help keep much of the area you are in up to Allegheny Co with freezing rain and sleet so I don't think flooding will be a concern yet. Hopefully some snow can make it down your way. I am guessing a light front end snow to icy mix and back to a little light snow. Butler Co. and North will be looking at mostly all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 NWS just updated forecast for tomorrow night of 3-5 inches of sleet and snow for my area. Sleet, possibly mixed with snow and freezing rain. Low around 30. North wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wednesday looks bad either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Reading and it looks like the NAM came south. Hopefully we can stay all frozen or at least avoid any icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like it's just going to be a sloppy mess around Bethel Park. Not much snow overall. Freezing rain may be more of the concern for this area. I'd rather have plain old rain than a setup like this, but living here it has happened all too often over the years. I'm thinking next weekend could be similar depending on how quickly the low can transfer, but that's a ways off yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like it's just going to be a sloppy mess around Bethel Park. Not much snow overall. Freezing rain may be more of the concern for this area. I'd rather have plain old rain than a setup like this, but living here it has happened all too often over the years. I'm thinking Saturday could be similar depending on how quickly the low can transfer, but that's a ways off yet. Yea I agree although Saturday night seems like a widespread large snow event for everyone....who knows tho....I'm actually surprised allegheny county is under a WSW for tomorrow night....with mainly rain-but I saw somewhere there was a huge discussion about not knowing the track of the low until tomorrow morning's run once it develops more out of Texas....still time for it to go either way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like it's just going to be a sloppy mess around Bethel Park. Not much snow overall. Freezing rain may be more of the concern for this area. I'd rather have plain old rain than a setup like this, but living here it has happened all too often over the years. I'm thinking next weekend could be similar depending on how quickly the low can transfer, but that's a ways off yet. don't think Freezing Rain wlll be concern, They have a Coating to a quarter inch of Ice, That will happen mostly where the low level cold air doesn't move like Mountain Valleys. & Still think the fresh Snowpack Here & southwest will have impact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 the above image was completely different Yesterday, Was over an Inch of Freezing Rain , Now over Inch of Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 18Z NAM total snowfall for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I think the safe bet is for the WAA to win over and to cut down our snow totals with the mix, especially in the South Hills. Hoping for a GFS solution, but just not confident in it being all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I think the safe bet is for the WAA to win over and to cut down our snow totals with the mix, especially in the South Hills. Hoping for a GFS solution, but just not confident in it being all snow. Yeah, we're not getting all snow here. Butler County and north have a better chance at that. We've been through this many times. This looks like another slopstorm for Allegheny County and south. More slop than snow for South Hills and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 18Z NAM total snowfall for this storm. Considering the NAM is still the furtherst NW thats not a terrible look. If the 12z GFS and Euro are closer to what transpires we will see more snow. 18z GFS is a bit North just eyeballing it compared to 12z, but I wouldn't worry to much unless other models tick NW as well. Another 50 mile jog SE on the 12z and I think most are happy. NAM will be in its more useful range tonight at 00z, so start looking to it to sniff out trends and it will likley have a better handle on temps. 12z tomorrow is the super bowl lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The 18z gfs is ridiculous on the weekend storm. Full out blizzard for us with 10-20 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The 18z gfs is ridiculous on the weekend storm. Full out blizzard for us with 10-20 inches. Do you happen to have a map you could share of that? I can only see the NWS models right now. I noticed that the 850 line comes up to our area, but I guess there's still plenty of moisture after colder air moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Do you happen to have a map you could share of that? I can only see the NWS models right now. I'm on a phone and only looking at the nws gfs maps. Looks like between 1-1.5 qpf, and I'd imagine pretty good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This map? That works. Thanks. Just wanted to get an idea where the heaviest and lightest would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Found this on another site, Weather Bell's new addition of Euro Ensemble EPS probability maps looking at the probability of greater than or equal to 6 inches of snow in a 24 hour period is 60 to 70% around my back yard Dayton to greater than 90% chance as one approaches the Ohio/Pennsylvania border towards Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Found this on another site, Weather Bell's new addition of Euro Ensemble EPS probability maps looking at the probability of greater than or equal to 6 inches of snow in a 24 hour period is 60 to 70% around my back yard Dayton to greater than 90% chance as one approaches the Ohio/Pennsylvania border towards Pittsburgh. When???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 When???? Wed Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yeah that was posted by Rob from accuwx forums. I was gonna post it to. Thats an interesting post there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Would like for that weekend storm to come south - how is the GFS relative to other models? Is Euro south of it? It seems the trend has been to move north this winter, so it's a bit disconcerting to see it that far north already. If it really amplifies that much, then without blocking, it has no choice but to ride north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NWS has Temps from Tuesday night into Wed from 32-36. Seems like we never do well in this type of event. Really don't want Ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NWS has Temps from Tuesday night into Wed from 32-36. Seems like we never do well in this type of event. Really don't want Ice. Give it til 12z tomorrow to get a better handle on temps, those point and click forecasts aren't always the greatest. If the NAM looks like today's 12z GFS I'll be pretty optimistic, if it continues to hold the NW look that would be discerning but ultimately I'm still leaning on the GFS / Euro for track of the low for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 00z NAM South with the heavier snow vs 18z. Seems to keep that primary going longer than GFS still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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