RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like an I-70 North deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 NWS, says pretty much no snow accumulation for AGC for Tue/Wed Tuesday Night Rain, snow, and freezing rain likely before midnight, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet between midnight and 2am, then freezing rain and sleet after 2am. Low around 30. Northeast wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Wednesday Snow and freezing rain likely before 11am, then a chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Northwest wind 6 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible..SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY...TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY TIME FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND SREF HAVE NOW TRENDED TOWARDS THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW BETWEEN MODELS MAKES FORECASTING SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION TYPES VERY DIFFICULT. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...AS THIS IS THE AREA WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT WARNING CRITERIA SNOW WILL BE REACHED...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THESE COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MIX IN AS WELL. EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WHERE PRECIPITATION COULD MANAGE TO REMAIN RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD RECEIVE NEARLY ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE. AM ALSO CONCERNED THAT THE RIDGES COULD HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS STILL LACKING ABOUT THE POSSIBLE ICE ACCUMULATION TO ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME. FINALLY...ONE MORE CONCERN IS THAT IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE PRIMARILY RAIN...RUNOFF COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO THE CREATION OF ICE JAMS ON LOCAL RIVERS. WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONTAINED TO ABOUT A 12 HOUR WINDOW...AND PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD CONTINUE IN THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE AREAS...BUT A FROZEN LAKE ERIE SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. -- End Changed Discussion -- I wouldn't get concerned with snow totals yet. NWS, especially KPIT is not going to go over board with still pretty much every option on the table. That being said, it seems to be coming to more of a SE consensus which should be colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Got over 6" here Nate, where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Nate, where are you located? SE Westmoreland County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS looking better again for Tuesday into Wednesday storm. 850 freezing line seems to almost straddle I-70, maybe a hair north and surface freezing stays along or below M/D line with .5+ qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 SE Westmoreland County. Pitt-Greensburg closed for the day. Gotta say I am disappointed to have missed this storm looking at only a quarter inch but the bright side is I have a day off work due to snow and I don't even have to shovel the driveway lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Pitt-Greensburg closed for the day. Gotta say I am disappointed to have missed this storm looking at only a quarter inch but the bright side is I have a day off work due to snow and I don't even have to shovel the driveway lol. Yeah 30 was horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The differences in the midweek storm between the nam and gfs are quite frankly, absurd. The gfs had the primary in western Virginia, while the nam at the same time has it in the West Virginia panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The differences in the midweek storm between the nam and gfs are quite frankly, absurd. The gfs had the primary in western Virginia, while the nam at the same time has it in the West Virginia panhandle. The models are having issues handling this storm. Probably going go have to wait until tomorrow when they hopefully have a better handle on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The models are having issues handling this storm. Probably going go have to wait until tomorrow when they hopefully have a better handle on it. Sounds like last Night & todays storm & also fresh Snowpack too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The differences in the midweek storm between the nam and gfs are quite frankly, absurd. The gfs had the primary in western Virginia, while the nam at the same time has it in the West Virginia panhandle. I'd ignore the NAM until its within 48 hours, especially when its on its own against the global models. Its slowly been trending towards a GFS type solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Weekend storm is a classic Miller B on the 12z GFS. This run kills the primary off just in time for most of SW PA. Wouldn't put much stock into any solution though until we get past Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Almost 7" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 At least Tues night, Wed storm is trending colder. We still may have more sleet and ZR and maybe an inch or 2 of snow. The weekend is still ways off but that is looking much better for us for a big event if it doesn't move much. (Of course we all know about being in the bullseye 6 days out) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I see reports of a foot over in Greene County. I can believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So its not looking good for a 6+ storm tomorrow night. No one wants to deal with ice/ sleet. Lets hope the Euro is a good hit for us and the NAM is just way too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So its not looking good for a 6+ storm tomorrow night. No one wants to deal with ice/ sleet. Lets hope the Euro is a good hit for us and the NAM is just way too far north. I will take our foot snowstorm on Sunday night-Monday and then warm-up for an early Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So its not looking good for a 6+ storm tomorrow night. No one wants to deal with ice/ sleet. Lets hope the Euro is a good hit for us and the NAM is just way too far north. To hard to pinpoint just yet, but areas further NW *should* do better snow wise with 6+ not out of the question for those that stay all snow. NWS already has WSW up for Northern Counties. I suspect they will wait for headlines to expire on today's storm then possibly issue a watch for the southern tier counties Allegheny Westmoreland, at least based on what I saw form todays 12z runs, of course Euro not in yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I will take our foot snowstorm on Sunday night-Monday and then warm-up for an early Spring then a march 93 redux before we move into spring. Fixed. My personal opinion is all of feb and the first week of march might as well be cold and snowy. After that we have roughly 8 months for warm weather so get the snow while we can. Heck if we can get 6 inches Wednesday and 12 over the weekend (big ifs) we could make a run at a 70 inch season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Snow started to come down pretty good again in Bethel. Looks like back end is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Fixed. My personal opinion is all of feb and the first week of march might as well be cold and snowy. After that we have roughly 8 months for warm weather so get the snow while we can. Heck if we can get 6 inches Wednesday and 12 over the weekend (big ifs) we could make a run at a 70 inch season. I agree with you. As I get older though I am becoming one of these fuddy duddys that is being bothered by the cold. It hasn't helped that I have been under the weather most of the month of January, and have to take the dog out every day. The week of below zero and minor snows really did me in. I'll take the big snowstorm but lets keep the temp around 32. I do think that Sunday will be our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Mon Valley special today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Accumulating snow now close to completion, finished with around 9" here. Definitely the biggest snow I've seen in the last four years, a rare event. Looks like we may have to live on it, too, as Wednesday is going to be rain and now next weekend is north, but the latter storm will likely still shift around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I agree with you. As I get older though I am becoming one of these fuddy duddys that is being bothered by the cold. It hasn't helped that I have been under the weather most of the month of January, and have to take the dog out every day. The week of below zero and minor snows really did me in. I'll take the big snowstorm but lets keep the temp around 32. I do think that Sunday will be our storm. well I have Sciatica, Large Central Disc Bulge @ L5/S1 & Lumbar Spinal Stenosis & it hurts to shovel or evn walk in it BUT I still love snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Accumulating snow now close to completion, finished with around 9" here. Definitely the biggest snow I've seen in the last four years, a rare event. Looks like we may have to live on it, too, as Wednesday is going to be rain and now next weekend is north, but the latter storm will likely still shift around. Glad to hear you hit the jackpot with this one. I know you've been in the screwzone so many times down there. I complain a lot about that warm tongue that eventually does my area in with storms but you get it a lot worse obviously. I guess Wednesday will be the total opposite of this one. Hopefully we can somehow all cash in with the weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 108 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY EVENING......WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY EVENING.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A COATING TO A QUARTER INCH POSSIBLE.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SIX INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER.* SNOW/ICE BEGINNING...TUESDAY EVENING.* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW/ICE...MIDNIGHT TO DAYBREAKWEDNESDAY.* SNOW/ICE ENDING...LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 People moaning and groaning on the PBZ Facebook page because they got warning-criteria snow without a warning. Makes me mad. They nailed where I live, so I can't say anything bad. Looks like mostly rain here for Tuesday into Wednesday. Maybe a little backside snow? It seems to me like flooding may become a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 People moaning and groaning on the PBZ Facebook page because they got warning-criteria snow without a warning. Makes me mad. They nailed where I live, so I can't say anything bad. Looks like mostly rain here for Tuesday into Wednesday. Maybe a little backside snow? It seems to me like flooding may become a concern. I think there is a very high chance for significant snow and ice midweek. I don't see a mostly rain scenario right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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