RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I am not buying a large scale ice storm. That is so rare in our area. I think temps will be so close to 32 that with the heavy rain there would not be much ice forming. Most guidance has a transfer happening once the low rides up into SWPA. Gotta hope for a transfer much further south in WV. i agree 100% with this assuming the GFS verifies. I think the warm air will be underestimated, and you won't get much ice accreation at 31.5 with moderate rain. With that being said, it appears the Euro and CMC are both SE and have a quicker transfer so a snowier / sleet situation seem more likley. Personally, I'll take a little bit of ice if its sandwhiched between some decent snow ala VD2007, but an all out ice storm is a rare beast that I'd rather not deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Just when I want to give up on a storm because of rain it reels me back in. Well should be an interesting week ahead. I hear ya, I'd all but assumed Monday system would just scrape us with cloudy skies, now could be a couple inches. Still rooting for a NW trend. For mid week, If the CMC and Euro are onto something and we see another SE tick it could be really interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Surprised my snow pack has held up very well. Still a solid 3 inches despite the sun and near 50 degree temp. No grass showing anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Just to take a break from the model madness for a second, I'm really enjoying this day. Riding around with my window down today. Needed a break from the frigid air. Almost gets me in the mood for spring if we can't get one of these potential storms to track in our favor. Sent from my XT897 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 18z NAM for Sun-Mon shows .25-.50 for So. 1/3rd of AGC .1-.25 for the rest of AGC The ,5 line is very close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I wish we had individual threat threads, I can't tell which storm everyone is talking about haha! Right now suddenly the Monday event looks decent, which means it will keep trending north and I may end up in the screwzone by then. Yesterday it looked like a big hit for D.C. Midweek is still marginal at best. Not worried about next weekend right now because who knows, models have been all over the place. And damn is it warm today (warmer than expected?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I wish we had individual threat threads, I can't tell which storm everyone is talking about haha! Right now suddenly the Monday event looks decent, which means it will keep trending north and I may end up in the screwzone by then. Yesterday it looked like a big hit for D.C. Midweek is still marginal at best. Not worried about next weekend right now because who knows, models have been all over the place. And damn is it warm today (warmer than expected?). Individual threads are unnecessary in our forum. We have one of least active ones as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Surprised my snow pack has held up very well. Still a solid 3 inches despite the sun and near 50 degree temp. No grass showing anywhere. I noticed the same thing, only places with some grass showing are those that didn't have much from the blowing snow. I guess the frozen ground underneath is probably helping some. I wonder if we hold onto it until the cold front goes through tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I wish we had individual threat threads, I can't tell which storm everyone is talking about haha! Right now suddenly the Monday event looks decent, which means it will keep trending north and I may end up in the screwzone by then. Yesterday it looked like a big hit for D.C. Midweek is still marginal at best. Not worried about next weekend right now because who knows, models have been all over the place. And damn is it warm today (warmer than expected?). NWS said some areas with the aid of an easterly wind providing downsloping could hit 50, and that looks pretty likely. Multiple threads are not needed for our area, we barely go through 2 a winter as is in terms of post count. I will agree though that people (my self included) need to better specify what event they are referencing. I wonder what the Northern extent of this Monday system will be. Guessing it can still come North, but I'd be shocked if it turns into something that puts anyone around the M/D line west of the Apps close to mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 18z NAM for Sun-Mon shows .25-.50 for So. 1/3rd of AGC .1-.25 for the rest of AGC The ,5 line is very close Just curious, where are you seeing this? Text output has .02 for KAGC and 0 for KPIT on the Cobb webstie. NAM not that reliable anyways but just wondering if what I am looking at is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Just curious, where are you seeing this? Text output has .02 for KAGC and 0 for KPIT on the Cobb webstie. NAM not that reliable anyways but just wondering if what I am looking at is wrong. Saw it in the Central thread. Post #99 Panel #4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Saw it in the Central thread. Post #99 Panel #4 I think that's snowfall in millimeters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Saw it in the Central thread. Post #99 Panel #4 Looks like we are just splitting hairs here, probably 25 miles SE of kagc is into meaningul snow so if you were eyeballing it on a map that explains the discrepency. Mets seem to think there is still room for the Monday storm to go North some, here to hoping! 18Z GFS tracked Wednesday storm along the M/D line, but it still isn't enough for an all snow or snow and sleet, we still see plain rain. If 00z holds or ticks SE again I'll start getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks like we are just splitting hairs here, probably 25 miles SE of kagc is into meaningul snow so if you were eyeballing it on a map that explains the discrepency. Mets seem to think there is still room for the Monday storm to go North some, here to hoping! 18Z GFS tracked Wednesday storm along the M/D line, but it still isn't enough for an all snow or snow and sleet, we still see plain rain. If 00z holds or ticks SE again I'll start getting excited. Definitely not holding my breath on either one of those storms at this point. I think even if the Monday storm keeps edging north, we're going to see very little from it anyway. The Wednesday storm just screams GLC still. Even when the GFS has jumped a bit south on a run, it goes back north and west on the next run. It's done that for a few days now. It's been very consistent these past few days in basically giving us mostly rain. That's what I expect at this point. Hope I'm wrong of course. Sent from my XT897 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Definitely not holding my breath on either one of those storms at this point. I think even if the Monday storm keeps edging north, we're going to see very little from it anyway. The Wednesday storm just screams GLC still. Even when the GFS has jumped a bit south on a run, it goes back north and west on the next run. It's done that for a few days now. It's been very consistent these past few days in basically giving us mostly rain. That's what I expect at this point. Hope I'm wrong of course. Sent from my XT897 Yeah, I could easily see the Monday storm being an I-70 South storm, and the mid week being an I-80 North while the rest of us are left with little. Youd hope we wouldn't find a way to miss out on everything but its certainly a possible outcome right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Snow pack really starting to take a hit now. Lots of bare spots showing up. Probably not going to make it through the rain tonight. 00z GFS is colder for mid week storm again, surface freezing line never makes it much past the M/D line and 850 freezing seems to hover just South of I-80. Still seems suspect to me as WAA always seems to be underdone, but I'm getting more optimistc here. Still think all snow is a long shot, but maybe we can get some prolonged sleet or something. Would beat plain rain or ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Snow pack really starting to take a hit now. Lots of bare spots showing up. Probably not going to make it through the rain tonight. 00z GFS is colder for mid week storm again, surface freezing line never makes it much past the M/D line and 850 freezing seems to hover just South of I-80. Still seems suspect to me as WAA always seems to be underdone, but I'm getting more optimistc here. Still think all snow is a long shot, but maybe we can get some prolonged sleet or something. Would beat plain rain or ice. If you want to see some serious eye candy, look at next weekend's potential storm on the 00z GFS. Double barrel low right now. Another case of being in a great spot over a week out which means nothing really. Something else to look at anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Take this for what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethel975 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Woke up to rain around 7:15-has now changed over to sleet at the Beaver/Lawrence County line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Text Output from 06z GFS for mid week storm for kpit ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140204/2100Z 63 06007KT 30.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0140205/0000Z 66 07009KT 27.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0140205/0300Z 69 03011KT 27.0F SNOW 16:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.090 16:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0140205/0600Z 72 07012KT 26.9F SNOW 7:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.280 9:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140205/0900Z 75 03011KT 27.4F SNPL 6:1| 1.3|| 0.23|| 0.00|| 0.233 8:1| 4.8|| 0.23|| 0.00|| 0.60 51| 49| 0140205/1200Z 78 34010KT 25.1F SNOW 11:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.129 9:1| 6.3|| 0.23|| 0.00|| 0.73 100| 0| 0140205/1500Z 81 35013KT 23.3F SNOW 13:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.068 9:1| 7.2|| 0.23|| 0.00|| 0.80 100| 0| 0140205/1800Z 84 34013KT 26.7F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 9:1| 7.3|| 0.23|| 0.00|| 0.81 100| 0| 0 Wouldn't take it verbatim, but indicates for sure we are more frozen than zr or plain rain. Double barrell low still on the table for next week too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Take this for what it's worth. Looks pretty close to what NWS is saying if you read the text in the HWO and ADV's. Only caveat is if it comes a bit further N or S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I am looking ahead to Wed and even Saturday may be the big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z NAM looks a bit NW of 06z, at least with the heavier snow (maybe not necessarily on the Northern extent of the precip shield though) for the Monday storm, but its hard to say for sure. If other models hold serve NWS may bump adviory counties North and up some to the South to warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I am looking ahead to Wed and even Saturday may be the big one. Saturday and Saturday Night looks awesome. Hope it looks that good Thursday. We haven't had a setup like that since '10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Saw this map last night on Tweetdeck from Joe Bastardi's Twitter page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Those day 10 storms always look so good haha, but given how consistent its been, the weekend has much potential. Fun week ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 NWS Pit still has most of Allegh Co. in less than 1 inch. I think this evening most areas will be in a 1-2 or 2-4 South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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