jwilson Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It's probably too soon to fork the storm, but without any blocking, I'd say it's unlikely this thing comes as far south as I would like (perhaps you Pittsburgh folks will still fair okay). As expected we lose the cold as soon as the southern jet gets cranking. If nothing else, perhaps a miss sets us up for a better situation days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This is the map Fwiw. At this point I think we have a better chance at a severe ice storm than a severe snow storm. This is not looking good for our area, trends are not our friend. Well at these leads I think we are still going to see swings in the range 200 miles or more one way or another from one run to another so with that in mind that particular map isn't that bad. GFS seems to still be the furthest NW with the storm. Today's 12z GFS verbatim was probably at least .5 zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Well going off the freebie maps, looks like the Euro swings a storm to the south on Monday, then drives the mid week storm to lakes along the PA /OH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Just watched Bernie Rayno's latest video. As far as accumulating snow goes, seems like the much better threat will come later in the week next week. Cold air + lots of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 As much as I love snow I would rather see spring. These storms that cut west and give us precip issues or too far east for little qpf are getting old. Neither storm looks like it will be the big one for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 As much as I love snow I would rather see spring. These storms that cut west and give us precip issues or too far east for little qpf are getting old. Neither storm looks like it will be the big one for us. Too soon to throw in the towel on winter. Over the last several years Feb has had our best storms it seems, and realistically we aren't going to get pleasant warm weather so we might as well have snow. Three storms on the map for next week, odds favor we get something from one of them. Still hoping we can make a run for a 50+ season again this year. There is still a pretty big spread of solutions for the mid week storm between the OP runs and ensembles so things are far from resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 weren't we RIGHT IN THE BULLSEYE on the last storm 5 days out and then it busted as we moved closer to 2 days out?....just saying'...maybe we don't wanna be in the sweet spot just yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Too soon to throw in the towel on winter. Over the last several years Feb has had our best storms it seems, and realistically we aren't going to get pleasant warm weather so we might as well have snow. Three storms on the map for next week, odds favor we get something from one of them. Still hoping we can make a run for a 50+ season again this year. There is still a pretty big spread of solutions for the mid week storm between the OP runs and ensembles so things are far from resolved. Way too early. Even if we miss out on all three storms next week we still have 3 weeks left in what is typically our snowiest month. March also averages close to 8 inches. I'd say anything below 50 inches for the season would be a let down at this point. I say we end up closer to 60 for the season. Still feel very confident that we see a 6+ storm before it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Can anyone send me a link to where to check the snowfall to date for kpit? I used to go to wunderground but it seems to jump around and is currently saying we've only received 21 inches for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looks like another shortwave possibly developing on early Monday that may need watched. The 18z NAM, I know, I know, is showing it...EURO has it a little more south as does the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Can anyone send me a link to where to check the snowfall to date for kpit? I used to go to wunderground but it seems to jump around and is currently saying we've only received 21 inches for the year. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=pbz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Can anyone send me a link to where to check the snowfall to date for kpit? I used to go to wunderground but it seems to jump around and is currently saying we've only received 21 inches for the year. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=pbz The daily climate report provides total snowfall for KPIT to date. But there's alot of other great stuff on that page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Models don't have a clue STILL Bouncing around & not making a whole hell of a lot of sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Thank you both very much. That is everything I was looking for and more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I am gonna stop following wednesdays threat and hope to be surprised but I see a GLC. We need the prinary to die faster but that wont happen. Heres to hoping for a feb 5 2010 repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=pbz The daily climate report provides total snowfall for KPIT to date. But there's alot of other great stuff on that page. He needs to go to NOWData, then select Pittsburgh then snowfall for the variable. 42.3" for the season. Wow. BTW they also have season to date normals here: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/pbz/climate/PIT_STD_Snow.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks like another shortwave possibly developing on early Monday that may need watched. The 18z NAM, I know, I know, is showing it...EURO has it a little more south as does the GFS. 00z NAM run ends but, just extrapolating it looks like its going to be well SE of us. Looks pretty close to the Euro in terms ot track I think. Hope we don't miss that one to the South then have mid week go NW. Maybe I should send my tires back and get some RainX lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Mid week threat looks better on 00z GFS. Still not a snow event but a much better track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Mid week threat looks better on 00z GFS. Still not a snow event but a much better track.Unfortunately, the 06z is right back to where it was and even the potential storm after that one cuts way west of us. A lot of time left on that one of course, so we'll see. Hopefully this stormy period coming up doesn't end up giving us lots of slop and rain. The lack of blocking could hurts us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 From Central Pa discussion... FROM THERE A MORE IMPORTANT CYCLONE IS MADE TO APPROACH FOR WED...AND THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS/GEFS. THE ECMWF HAS ITS LOW TRACKING INTO WESTERN PA...BEFORE REDEVELOPING QUICKLY OFF THE MID ATL COAST. THE GFS/GEFS ARE BOTH FURTHER SOUTHEAST...WITH THE GEFS BEING THE MOST EAST AND THUS THE COLDEST SET OF SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT A WINTRY MIX IS INDICATED BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODEL OUTCOMES AS WARM AIR FLOODS IN ALOFT...BUT WITH SO MUCH SNOW COVER AND COLD AIR OVER THE GR LAKES AND NE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK WANDERS CLOSER TO THE COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Unfortunately, the 06z is right back to where it was and even the potential storm after that one cuts way west of us. A lot of time left on that one of course, so we'll see. Hopefully this stormy period coming up doesn't end up giving us lots of slop and rain. The lack of blocking could hurts us. Yeah I'm starting to see how those CFS forecasts of below normal temps and above average precip for Feb could wind up disappointing. Warm cutters followed by cold after the storm passes. Not saying this will happen, but certainly something possible. Lots of time, without blocking we need some luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z NAM run ends but, just extrapolating it looks like its going to be well SE of us. Looks pretty close to the Euro in terms ot track I think. Hope we don't miss that one to the South then have mid week go NW. Maybe I should send my tires back and get some RainX lol Looks like the overnight EURO came way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 From Central Pa discussion... FROM THERE A MORE IMPORTANT CYCLONE IS MADE TO APPROACH FOR WED...AND THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS/GEFS. THE ECMWF HAS ITS LOW TRACKING INTO WESTERN PA...BEFORE REDEVELOPING QUICKLY OFF THE MID ATL COAST. THE GFS/GEFS ARE BOTH FURTHER SOUTHEAST...WITH THE GEFS BEING THE MOST EAST AND THUS THE COLDEST SET OF SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT A WINTRY MIX IS INDICATED BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODEL OUTCOMES AS WARM AIR FLOODS IN ALOFT...BUT WITH SO MUCH SNOW COVER AND COLD AIR OVER THE GR LAKES AND NE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK WANDERS CLOSER TO THE COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. PITT NWS doesn't seem to imply much threat for wintry weather as of now. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MIDWEEK SYSTEM STILL COMING INTO FOCUS...ALTHOUGH TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE. OP MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TO A WARMER SOLUTION AS THE TRACK EVERY SO SLOWLY DRIFTS WESTWARD. STILL MUCH TO WORK OUT FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM. It makes sense though, Central PA will CAD while we warm tongue. All we can hope for is something similar to last nights 00z GFS that tracks a bit further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks like the overnight EURO came way north. Yeah, I think MAG report about .1 making it into Pitt from the Euro. I guess we can hope it trends further NW, while hoping for further SE on Wed lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Just gonna let a few days pass and see where were at on Sunday evening as far as models....each one seems different, and like I said before-last storm that we were in bullseye for 4 days out only to have everything shift down the wire a day or 2 out....does it EVER go the "other way" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Like - not in the bullseye and then down to the wire, everything shifts IN OUR FAVOR?.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well I looked at the models and its not looking good. The PNA- and NAO+ is gonna make it really difficult to get a decent storm. Doesn't mean we can't a decent storm just more difficult. Almost reminds me of Nov 13 where the storms cut west and there was some extreme severe outbreaks. Time will tell, but its only feb and still 2 months to go. Odds are we see more snow eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 PITT NWS doesn't seem to imply much threat for wintry weather as of now. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MIDWEEK SYSTEM STILL COMING INTO FOCUS...ALTHOUGH TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE. OP MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TO A WARMER SOLUTION AS THE TRACK EVERY SO SLOWLY DRIFTS WESTWARD. STILL MUCH TO WORK OUT FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM. It makes sense though, Central PA will CAD while we warm tongue. All we can hope for is something similar to last nights 00z GFS that tracks a bit further SE. Good Lord Pgh. NWS is so conservative they are ridiculous, Always have been & always will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well I looked at the models and its not looking good. The PNA- and NAO+ is gonna make it really difficult to get a decent storm. Doesn't mean we can't a decent storm just more difficult. Almost reminds me of Nov 13 where the storms cut west and there was some extreme severe outbreaks. Time will tell, but its only feb and still 2 months to go. Odds are we see more snow eventually. quit Listening to HM he is TERRIBLE with Winter Storms MUCH MUCH Better with Sever weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I agree but with those teleconnections its harder for us not to get a cutter. I listen to his videos to see his thoughts. I like Bernie Rayno a lot better, when it comes to winter he knows what is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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