Mailman Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 brrr... I liked the 276h clown map in the prior post better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 So reading some things about lr pattern. It does not look like we warm up anytime soon. In fact it appears that another arctic outbreak will hit beginning of feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsteel Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 up to 34 degrees here, 34 degrees at KPIT what a heat wave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 We're torchin right now - upper 20's to around 32. Wonder if this is part of what the GGEM was getting at by showing a little rain in advance of the next system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Where do I sign up at. There's your February 2010 analog. Yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA1152 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073-075-WVZ001>004-012-021-022-271300-/O.EXB.KPBZ.WW.Y.0006.140127T0600Z-140127T1500Z//O.CON.KPBZ.WC.Y.0006.140127T1700Z-140128T0500Z//O.CON.KPBZ.WC.A.0002.140128T0500Z-140128T1500Z/TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...CARROLLTON...SALEM...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...GROVE CITY...FRANKLIN...TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...BUTLER...CLARION...BROOKVILLE...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...INDIANA...WASHINGTON...WAYNESBURG...GREENSBURG...LATROBE...UNIONTOWN...WEIRTON...BETHANY...WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN1152 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY......WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TOMIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT......WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHTTHROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECTUNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES.* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVEFROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 1 AM IN ZANESVILLE TO AROUND 4 AM INPITTSBURGH. A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY WITH THE FRONTALPASSAGE.* SNOW ENDING...SNOW FALL WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS AND END ATMOST LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING.* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST WITHGUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.* VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE QUARTER OF A MILE TO POSSIBLE BRIEFWHITE OUT CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE DURATION OFTHE WORST VISIBILITIES IS LIKELY TO BE SHORT...AROUND AN HOUR ORSO AT ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION.* TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO AS LOW AS 14 BELOW TONIGHT.* WIND CHILL...WILL FALL BELOW 10 BELOW THIS AFTERNOON...ANDLIKELY 25 TO 30 BELOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...FROST BITE AND HYPOTHERMIA ARE POSSIBLE IF PRECAUTIONSARE NOT TAKEN.* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TOFALLING TEMPERATURES AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS...HEAVYSNOW AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wow! Front is here with 45 mph gusts. Temp just went from 35 to 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Pit Airport temp was briefly at 43....but that quickly fell about 10 degrees. 50 mph gusts at County apt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 My temp has dropped to 19. Heavy squall coming through now with winds gusting over 45 mph. Time to head out in it. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Brief warmup over night created a shell on top of the powdery snow it seems, which is probably good as ground blizzard conditions would have likely caused some problems with most areas carrying 5-7 inches on the ground. Looks like most get away with an inch today. Now its onto the cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 GFS looks great late week for now...Something good to follow. Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 20% 800 x 600 (36.28K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Continuing northern stream dominance means we probably won't see nearly that much snow, but it's nice to look at nonetheless. Plus the relaxation of the cold pattern may mean p-type issues for at least next weekend, if not beyond. The long-term seems to be bouncing between extended warmth and the return of cold air. I would be more inclined to believe a repeat of this past weekend (a general 3-5" in the area), or a system moving further north. 50/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That snow map is actually 2 different storms, an overrunning event on Friday, then looks like a weak area of low pressure gets going and rides up through eastern PA off the coast. The Euro has nothing Friday and rain following later in the weekend.. Then the Feb 5th storm the GFS cuts right over top of us for a pounding rain storm, but from what I can gather the Euro tracks it further east. No confidence at all in what is going to happen outside of the next 72 -96 hours although at least for the weekend I'd lean towards the less favorable solution as the Euro has the GGEM on it's side and some of the GEFS as well. Would be nice to see the models converge onto a solution here. If I could I'd cash out now and take that GFS solution for the weekend to the bank though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 GFS holds serve for both waves Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 GFS holds serve for both waves Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 20% I am pretty sure the gfs is the only one showing snow for us. I honestly dont see us seeing any type of significant snow this weekend. The Euro has more on its side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Well the 00z gfs came north and weaker. Looks like we most likely will miss this system. Well I was more interested in the 6-9 period. Looks like a monster is brewing that we could maybe be in the path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Well the 00z gfs came north and weaker. Looks like we most likely will miss this system. Well I was more interested in the 6-9 period. Looks like a monster is brewing that we could maybe be in the path. The storm Saturday is probably not going to pan out for us, maybe some snow but we are def going to warm it seems. Only model showing snow really is the GFS. Speaking of the GFS, run through the loop on the 6z, its cold and snowy! After the weekend, and espcially mid week next week looks to have something big brewing. Seems like the Euro and GFS are on board, of course no guarantee but good agreement for so far out. Could be a really fun week coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I see we are at 42.3 inches for the season to date, surpassing the norm with a couple mos left to add to that total. Looks to be several threats coming up to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Well the 00z gfs came north and weaker. Looks like we most likely will miss this system. Well I was more interested in the 6-9 period. Looks like a monster is brewing that we could maybe be in the path. Might just be that big storm you are looking for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Might just be that big storm you are looking for yeah I know thats what I am hoping but staying cautiously optimistic. We are due in my eyes for a heavy snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The storm Saturday is probably not going to pan out for us, maybe some snow but we are def going to warm it seems. Only model showing snow really is the GFS. Speaking of the GFS, run through the loop on the 6z, its cold and snowy! After the weekend, and espcially mid week next week looks to have something big brewing. Seems like the Euro and GFS are on board, of course no guarantee but good agreement for so far out. Could be a really fun week coming up. 12z GFS is now joining the other models and cutting into the lakes so it looks like rain for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 12z GFS is now joining the other models and cutting into the lakes so it looks like rain for this weekend. Not before a light snow on Friday. Also verbatim probably some snow or sleet to start. It looks like only 12-18 hours Saturday afternoon - Sunday morning of above freezing temps for those hoping to hold onto snow pack into next week. If we get heavy rain it might not matter though. I'm hoping it trends cooler, drier and shorter in duration wtih the expectation that snow is off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Well 12z GFS won't make any friends for next weeks storm. Copius amounts of rain as the strom cuts into NW PA. Probably some flooding with snow melt, ice jammed rivers and 2+ inches of rain! This soltuion is going to bounce all around for the next several days I think so I wouldn't get to high or low with expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The gfs 00z is an outlier at this point. The ensembles, the Euro and its ensembles dont show a GLC. This is what, 170 hrs out? This could change. All we know is a storm is coming and it has a chance to drop copious amounts of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Well good thing is a week away or else I would throw in the towel but if we see a GLC and we get rain/ice Ill lose it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Well good thing is a week away or else I would throw in the towel but if we see a GLC and we get rain/ice Ill lose it. It's funny how things seem to work around here with most of these storms. When we're in the bullseye this far out, they almost always trend either too far east or too far west after that. When it happens to show a GLC this far out, they don't seem to want to budge. Hope this one is different anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I just read the ensembles are mostly all still se. So we have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's over a week a way Take a Midol & live & Breathe, Will change God knows how many times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's still too soon to have a lock on this weekend's storm, much less one 7+ days out. My biggest concern is the lack of favorable teleconnections. I don't know what the EPO says, but it appears both the AO and the NAO will be in unfavorable states. Since the EPO has been driving most of the play this winter, I'll hedge and say most positive outcomes would rely on the EPO being favorable at this time (unless the predictions change, of course). Unfortunately the STJ wasn't active when we had all the fresh cold air hanging around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's funny how things seem to work around here with most of these storms. When we're in the bullseye this far out, they almost always trend either too far east or too far west after that. When it happens to show a GLC this far out, they don't seem to want to budge. Hope this one is different anyway. The cutter thing does seem to always hold true, but I think the reason is because if a storm cuts 50 miles west of us or 500 miles west of us, the end result is the same, raging SW winds and rain. On the other hand, for a good snow storm, if the track wobles 100 miles it can take you out of it so there is much less margin of error to get the same result. I think this preception inflates the "Cutters Gonna Cut" mentality. Just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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