Rdd9108 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 So I'm guessing getting to work at 10 tomorrow is going to be very difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 So I'm guessing getting to work at 10 tomorrow is going to be very difficult. Yes ..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY... * SNOW BEGINNING...AFTER MIDNIGHT. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES. LOCALLY UP TO 7 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES. * PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. * SNOW ENDING...LATE SATURDAY EVENING. * WIND...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Hour 30 Hi Rez NAM: Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 36% 1000 x 750 (159.36K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Looks like next week is going to be downright frigid. Three days in a row with below zero lows. Tuesdays low could be colder than the January low temp. This winter has been a wild ride so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I personally think 1-5" or maybe 2-9" that is very appropriate but definitely not 3-5" , ...oy arguing minutiae has become topical now. Liked it better a few years ago when we talked about the NAM, when we had mets here commenting on cyclogenesis and orthographic lift in Mon valley. Now we are contrarians for the sake of being contrarians. Are you pittsburgh rants? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Hope I don't need someone's permission to post this...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT - AMENDEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA523 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014...PITTSBURGH ON TRACK TO HAVE ONE OF ITS COLDEST JANUARIES EVER...WE FORECAST THE FINAL 7 DAYS OF JANUARY TO BE MUCH COLDER THANNORMAL. USING THIS FORECAST WE ESTIMATE THE MEAN TEMPERATURE FORTHE ENTIRE MONTH TO BE AROUND 20.8 DEGREES. THIS WOULD BE 7.6DEGREES COLDER THAN THE NORMAL JANUARY OF 28.4 DEGREES AND RANK7TH ALL TIME COLDEST JANUARY. ALSO, THIS WOULD TIE FOR THE 11THCOLDEST OF ANY MONTH ON RECORD.COLDEST JANUARIES...11.4 IN 197717.4 IN 194018.6 IN 191820.4 IN 191220.5 IN 198120.7 IN 197020.9 IN 1982NORMAL JANUARY 28.4LAST YEAR 31.5OTHER COLD MONTHS...18.0 IN FEBRUARY 197919.2 IN DECEMBER 198919.3 IN FEBRUARY 196319.7 IN FEBRUARY 193420.8 IN FEBRUARY 1875TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR PITTSBURGH DATE BACK TO 1871-72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Hour 30 Hi Rez NAM: Not really sure why that weird notch in the qpf, has been there on the nam and gfs. However it seems that some of the 1-3" forecasts are taking these models verbatim. We'll see. Are you pittsburgh rants? No, I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Are you pittsburgh rants? No but I think he was in timeout for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Hope I don't need someone's permission to post this... PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT - AMENDED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 523 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014 ...PITTSBURGH ON TRACK TO HAVE ONE OF ITS COLDEST JANUARIES EVER... WE FORECAST THE FINAL 7 DAYS OF JANUARY TO BE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL. USING THIS FORECAST WE ESTIMATE THE MEAN TEMPERATURE FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH TO BE AROUND 20.8 DEGREES. THIS WOULD BE 7.6 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE NORMAL JANUARY OF 28.4 DEGREES AND RANK 7TH ALL TIME COLDEST JANUARY. ALSO, THIS WOULD TIE FOR THE 11TH COLDEST OF ANY MONTH ON RECORD. COLDEST JANUARIES... 11.4 IN 1977 17.4 IN 1940 18.6 IN 1918 20.4 IN 1912 20.5 IN 1981 20.7 IN 1970 20.9 IN 1982 NORMAL JANUARY 28.4 LAST YEAR 31.5 OTHER COLD MONTHS... 18.0 IN FEBRUARY 1979 19.2 IN DECEMBER 1989 19.3 IN FEBRUARY 1963 19.7 IN FEBRUARY 1934 20.8 IN FEBRUARY 1875 TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR PITTSBURGH DATE BACK TO 1871-72. Thats interesting, imagine where we might be if we hadn't had that warm stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Not really sure why that weird notch in the qpf, has been there on the nam and gfs. However it seems that some of the 1-3" forecasts are taking these models verbatim. We'll see. No, I doubt it. There was a storm last year that models kept showing the .5 qpf contour seem to curve right around me run after run only to get bullseyed. Not sure why models are showing this, maybe the forcing isn't being modeled as well in that region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Hope I don't need someone's permission to post this... PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT - AMENDED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 523 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014 ...PITTSBURGH ON TRACK TO HAVE ONE OF ITS COLDEST JANUARIES EVER... WE FORECAST THE FINAL 7 DAYS OF JANUARY TO BE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL. USING THIS FORECAST WE ESTIMATE THE MEAN TEMPERATURE FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH TO BE AROUND 20.8 DEGREES. THIS WOULD BE 7.6 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE NORMAL JANUARY OF 28.4 DEGREES AND RANK 7TH ALL TIME COLDEST JANUARY. ALSO, THIS WOULD TIE FOR THE 11TH COLDEST OF ANY MONTH ON RECORD. COLDEST JANUARIES... 11.4 IN 1977 17.4 IN 1940 18.6 IN 1918 20.4 IN 1912 20.5 IN 1981 20.7 IN 1970 20.9 IN 1982 NORMAL JANUARY 28.4 LAST YEAR 31.5 OTHER COLD MONTHS... 18.0 IN FEBRUARY 1979 19.2 IN DECEMBER 1989 19.3 IN FEBRUARY 1963 19.7 IN FEBRUARY 1934 20.8 IN FEBRUARY 1875 TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR PITTSBURGH DATE BACK TO 1871-72. How is '94 not on this list? Must have had a warm stretch in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 No but I think he was in timeout for awhile We need some uber weenies in here. Our threads aren't as fun as the others, and some of the meltdowns in the I95 corridor threads are epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 We need some uber weenies in here. Our threads aren't as fun as the others, and some of the meltdowns in the I95 corridor threads are epic. I'm perfectly fine with having no "uber weenies" in this thread. lol I'm here to discuss weather without any idiots causing all kinds of drama. That's why I only come to this thread anymore and avoid the rest of the forum. I used to venture to other threads in this forum and ended up seeing the true colors of a lot of the other people outside of this thread. I want nothing to do with a lot of them to be honest. I come here to enjoy talking about a hobby I love. I don't want to be fighting with people all the time on here. That's just how I feel anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Interesting stuff regarding potential persistant band setting up later. NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...DRY AIR IS QUICKLY BEING ERODED AROUND PITTSBURGH AS CAN BENOTICED BY THE QUICKLY VANISHING VIRGA SIGNATURES ON KPBZ RADAR.AFTER SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS...SNOW IS QUICKLY DEVELOPING TOTHE WEST AND VISIBILITIES IN THE SNOW DROP FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTERONSET TO GENERALLY 3/4 TO 2 MILES ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL OHIO ATTHIS HOUR. IT WOULD SEEM THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE WELL INTO OUR AREATHROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ANDASSOCIATED VORT MAXIMA REALLY BALL UP AND TRANSITION SOUTHEAST.THIS PLACES THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS GENERALLY FROM THE TURNPIKESOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE IT ALSO TRANSITIONS THE MOSTINSTABILITY INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. AS ARESULT...DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF LARGE SCALE EXPECTATIONS OF QPFFROM THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE RATHER MINIMAL ACROSS THE AREA DUETO BETTER MECHANICAL FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND STRONGINSTABILITY UP NORTH. MODEL QPF GENERALLY FAVORS ROUGHLY 0.20"ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH TRANSLATESINTO A 3-4" SNOWFALL EVERYWHERE FROM THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SNOWEVENT USING RATIOS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 TO 1.THE LARGE SCALE EVENT IS UNLIKELY TO BE THE ONLY PLAYER GOING INTOTHE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER. BOTH LARGE SCALE ANDFINER SCALE MODELS POINT TOWARD A LONG FETCH BAND OF LOW LEVELCONVERGENCE EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGANACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE LATEAFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ODDLY ENOUGH...THE POSITIONING OF THISFEATURE WAS RATHER SIMILAR ON THE NAM...GFS...CANADIANREGION...AND ECMWF. ALL MODELS FAVOR A GENERAL 0.10" OF ADDITIONALQPF BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THIS BAND THAT THEIR MOST LIKELYPOSITIONING SENDS FROM ROUGHLY NEW PHILADELPHIA TO JUST SOUTH OFPITTSBURGH AND INTO THE RIDGES OF FAYETTE/PRESTON/GARRETTCOUNTIES. SHALLOW SATURATION EXTENDS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ALL THEWAY INTO PENNSYLVANIA WITH THIS BAND LARGELY FOCUSED BY BOUNDARYLAYER CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS STRONG LAPSE RATES IN THE 0-6 KMRANGE. ODDLY ENOUGH...BECAUSE COLD ADVECTION BRINGS THE DENDRITICGROWTH ZONE DOWN INTO THE ENTIRETY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ITSELF BYAFTERNOON...IT COULD WELL MAKE THIS SMALL BAND A FAIRLY EFFICIENTSNOW PRODUCER. EXPLICIT MODEL OUTPUT WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIALFOR AS MUCH AS 2-3" IN THIS BAND...HOWEVER GIVEN THE TREK IT WILLHAVE TO TAKE AS WELL AS INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTING SUCH AMESOSCALE BANDING FEATURE...THE FORECAST WILL GENERALLY ONLY FAVORAN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IN THE AREA WHERE THIS BAND IS MOSTLIKELY TO PERSIST. AS A RESULT...WHILE MOST OF THE AREA IS LIKELYTO SEE 3-5" OF PURELY SYSTEM SNOW...WHEREVER THIS BAND MAY SETUP/PERSIST MAY SEE A FEW SPOTS OF AS MUCH AS 6 OR 7 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Should be interesting to see where that band sets up! Well lets hope last nights 00z runs were just a blip in the longer range or major weenie melt down warnings will need to go out! On the 6z GFS starting next weekened into early next week through the end of the run some shows some serious qpf like 3-4 inches but its nearly all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen16226 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 2.25 inches so far up here in Armstrong County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Should be interesting to see where that band sets up! Well lets hope last nights 00z runs were just a blip in the longer range or major weenie melt down warnings will need to go out! On the 6z GFS starting next weekened into early next week through the end of the run some shows some serious qpf like 3-4 inches but its nearly all rain. And if that ends up verifying, we might be in for some big time flooding concerns. Frozen rivers and creeks melting, snow melting, and a lot of rain could spell trouble for areas along the rivers and creeks. Of course, we still have a lot of time and a lot of model runs to see how that plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The moderate snow seems to be pulsing back and forth in different areas. No real concentrated bands, but nice coverage overall. Was out earlier, and noticed some 4-6" drifts already forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like a general 2" around the area so far based on reports. I honestly have no idea due to existing snowpack, blowing and drifting, etc. Nice wintry day - just would like to get in to some heavier bands. I saw a report of 5" already up in Armstrong County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 2.75 inches here. The winds have really picked up and you can here the gusts coming through my big oaks. 25-30 mph really starting to blow the snow around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like that snow hole set up a little more south than modeled. Hopefully we can squeeze at least another 2 inches out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 2.75 inches here. The winds have really picked up and you can here the gusts coming through my big oaks. 25-30 mph really starting to blow the snow around. Looks like the persistent stuff should be over mid afternoon, not the earlythis evening as was forecast. We are about 1/2 through after about 4 hours. Maybe moving a little faster. Would not be surprised if we saw the sun before the day is done with some sporadic lake effect bands and bursts of locally heavy snow lasting a few mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like the persistent stuff should be over mid afternoon, not the earlythis evening as was forecast. We are about 1/2 through after about 4 hours. Maybe moving a little faster. Would not be surprised if we saw the sun before the day is done with some sporadic lake effect bands and bursts of locally heavy snow lasting a few mins. I think that is incorrect. Back edge is still halfway between Cleveland and Toledo, and is all pivoting southeast. Say we have another 6 hours of steady, at least light snow. Given most already have 2-3 I'd say 4-6 is a good bet at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen16226 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like a general 2" around the area so far based on reports. I honestly have no idea due to existing snowpack, blowing and drifting, etc. Nice wintry day - just would like to get in to some heavier bands. I saw a report of 5" already up in Armstrong County. I am in Ford City and was just out there measuring now. We are 5.5 inches. Almost as soon as I finished mearuring at around 8:30, is tarted coming down hard and it still is. FINALLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I think that is incorrect. Back edge is still halfway between Cleveland and Toledo, and is all pivoting southeast. Say we have another 6 hours of steady, at least light snow. Given most already have 2-3 I'd say 4-6 is a good bet at this point. Actually you are wrong, look at the radar, Cleveland will be in the clear within the hour and the density is breaking up. We will be seeing the sun by 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Actually you are wrong, look at the radar, Cleveland will be in the clear within the hour and the density is breaking up. We will be seeing the sun by 4. No, I'm not. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Do we not have an ignore feature anymore? Or was that just on Eastern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Do we not have an ignore feature anymore? Or was that just on Eastern? Sorry, I'll stop arguing with him. He is wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Sorry, I'll stop arguing with him. He is wrong though. I didnt mean you... :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Actually you are wrong, look at the radar, Cleveland will be in the clear within the hour and the density is breaking up. We will be seeing the sun by 4. Do you argue just to troll people? You are always being a dick head one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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