Mailman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Seems PBZ has dropped their totals a bit. I know there was a bigger area of 4-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Seems PBZ has dropped their totals a bit. I know there was a bigger area of 4-6. They've dropped them quite a bit actually. I was in the 4-6 range with the last map. Now I'm 2-4. This one is probably more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 They've dropped them quite a bit actually. I was in the 4-6 range with the last map. Now I'm 2-4. This one is probably more realistic. Pretty big cut back, but agreed that its probably a safer bet at this point. I was in the 2-3, now right in the middle of the 1-2. Slight tick SE and I'll be in that <1. If its not the warm tongue, its the sharp cutoff to the North it seems. Lots of potential storms in the flow though so if this one doesn't pan out for your back yard hopefully the next will. I'd love to be in that 4-6 range with temps falling into the teens though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 With ratios at 25:1 and even higher....even .15qpf would be 5".....a little tick north and were set! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 This could swing either way. You would expect some lower qpf areas to the north get a little better ratios. We could slip in to a nice sweet spot with a little luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Well we're right on the cusp of the 4-6" and 6-8" predictions down here. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out: despite the GFS output ATM, I'm not too confident in hitting those numbers. Not sure what the snow growth will be like around the area. For that I would appreciate an expert's opinion as it will pretty much determine what sort of ratios we see. Not an expert, but i think you are sitting pretty. Best forcing will be down there and ratios should be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 With ratios at 25:1 and even higher....even .15qpf would be 5".....a little tick north and were set! I don't think we see anywhere near 25:1 ratios, maybe more like 12:1 or 15:1. Although its going to be cold, other factors come in to play like where the best forcing is and where the dedritic growth zone is setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 From my buddy..... Here's the chart for ratios... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolling Snowed Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Is your buddy's name Don, Dennis, Dan, or Jesse? I know that chart very well. lol. PM me the answer if that suits you better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It's Jeff.....not in pgh market tho.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 image.jpg From my buddy..... Here's the chart for ratios... Well I think the text below the chart explains pretty well that ratios can vary from that and I think this storm is one of those cases. If your close ot I-70, NWS says 20:1 not out of the questions, but up my way although its going to be colder, ratios will be less. Either way, that chart is a pretty handy tool to get a rough estimate. I won't pretend I know how to look at a Skew-T and figure out ratios. STRONG LIFT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A FAIRLY COMPACT AND QUICK-MOVING 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AN 850 MB AND SURFACE LOW FORM IN WEST VIRGINIA QUICKLY IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH BOTTOMING OUT AS IT ENTERS KENTUCKY. AS THIS OCCURS...VERY STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING RESULTS ALONG THE OHIO/WEST VIRGINIA BORDER AND TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE RIDGES OF FAYETTE COUNTY. A COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM FRONTOGENESIS AND DEFORMATION IN THE LAYER FROM 850-500 MB IS A COMMON THEME ON THE NEW 18Z NAM AND GFS IN THIS CORRIDOR...WHICH PLACES THE LIFT SOLIDLY IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...LIKELY NOT ONLY INCREASING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE CORRIDOR...BUT ALSO SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD ROUGHLY A 5 HOUR OR SO PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR STARTING AT AROUND 10Z IN THE AREAS WEST OF MORGANTOWN...AND EXITING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF GARRETT COUNTY BY ROUGHLY 18Z. GIVEN CONSENSUS QPF AND RATIOS OF 17-20 TO 1 DURING THE TIME...IT SEEMS 6 TO AS MUCH AS 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS THAT WERE ISSUED EARLIER STILL LOOK VERY SOLID. IF ANY EXPANSION IS NEEDED...IT MAY JUST BE TO INCLUDE THE REST OF FAYETTE COUNTY. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE WAS NOT CONVINCING ENOUGH AT SUGGESTING 6"+ SNOWS THERE TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE AT THE MOMENT. FARTHER NORTH...BOTH LIFT AND MOISTURE QUICKLY FALLS OFF A CLIFF. FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT MAY WANDER AS FAR NORTH AS A ZANESVILLE...PITTSBURGH...INDIANA CORRIDOR...HOWEVER QPF SEEMS LIKELY TO STRUGGLE TO 0.10 TO 0.15 INCHES DURING THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT. EVEN GENEROUS RATIOS WHICH SEEM LESS LIKELY THIS FAR NORTH DUE TO THE HIGHER ALTITUDE OF THE LIFTING PROFILE IN TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS...LARGELY ABOVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FARTHER NORTH LIKELY MEAN THAT THE NORTHERN TIER WILL STRUGGLE TO ACHIEVE CRITERIA. HOWEVER...GIVEN AN ONSET IN PITTSBURGH DURING THE RUSH HOUR AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE GRADIENT OF QPF/SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES MAY BE RATHER STARK...THE ADVISORIES STILL SEEM WARRANTED...EVEN IF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY CRITERIA ACCUMULATIONS FAIL TO MATERIALIZE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 NAM looks pretty bleak qpf wise. Sort of unsettling to see the NAM so dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yea that's not too promising..... Oh well hopefully Saturday brings some hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yea that's not too promising..... Oh well hopefully Saturday brings some hope NAM has been further SE with the shield all along. I'll probably stay up to see what GFS says but not sure which one I should trust lol. NAM looks similar to the 12z Euro I think. Thus far this winter, I've noticed on my drive in to work in Greensburg the snow on the ground was gradually less, I think tomorrow will be the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Does anyone remember how the NAM performed vs. the GFS on the last go around? Still going with 2-4" in Motown, 1-3" basically through Pitt. To me this doesn't seem like the type of storm to drop 6-8" anywhere in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Well GFS still puts down about .1 - .15 for my backyard. I'll go to bed happy with that expecting 2 inches tomorrow, but hoping to be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Im gonna be pessimistic and say that we dont see a decent storm this year its either clippers or we are in the wrong place, or the temps are an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Roads covered....canon Mac has a delay but bethel park nothing....the cutoff in precip is amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Storm bust. Back end approaching. Not even an inch of snow. The commute was absolutely terrible. Barely a dusting on the road and traffic crawling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 definitely storm bust.....yesterday at 3pm models were showing 4-6 and a WWA.....hopefully thursday or saturday something happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Storm bust. Back end approaching. Not even an inch of snow. The commute was absolutely terrible. Barely a dusting on the road and traffic crawling. Seems like these storms just hit at a bad time for us. We may get very little, but what we do get hits at rush hour. Yeah, unless something moves in later, I know I'm not seeing 2-4 or even 1-3 out of this one. We can just add this one to the numerous small amounts that we've received this winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Shoveled 1/2 inch off the driveway early this morning. Probably got maybe 1 inch total by now. Snowing ever so lightly. Ready for the bitter cold now which I hate anymore. Maybe next week we will get ours. The good thing is it is only Jan 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Well, I guess this qualifies as a bust for our area. Most areas North of the M/D line will be lucky to his half their totals I think. Looks like the system took a more Southerly track, that combined with the shap cutoff will really cut totals down. Here is the NWS discussion point: PREVIOUS DISC...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTHTRACK WITH SFC LOW...DEEPEST MOISTURE...AND THE HEAVIER SNOW.LATEST MODEL DATA ALSO CONSISTENT SHOWING A VERY FAST MOVINGSYSTEM AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THISAFTERNOON. WITH THE SFC LOW EXIT...DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL SHIFTEASTWARD TAKING WITH IT THE SHIELD OF HEAVIER SNOW. CAA WILL BEONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE IN THEMORNING...WITH TEMPS SLOWLY FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. Oh well, onto the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 3.5" and still coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Still coming down here in Monroeville. Looks like its backbuilding a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 City south and east will definitely beat north. Seeing reports of 3" in Penn Hills while it looks like a sharp cutoff north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 City south and east will definitely beat north. Seeing reports of 3" in Penn Hills while it looks like a sharp cutoff north This showed up well on the models. You could see the higher qpf in the southeastern part of the county and it seems to be holding true. I picked up one inch and have had mainly flurries since 10:00 am. In fact the sun is shining through the clouds currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Picked up another inch in the last hour. 4.5" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Still SNowing, occasional moderate snow at times here in Monroeville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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