Mailman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 And there's the north trend I was looking for on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 And there's the north trend I was looking for on the 0z GFS. The one day where I have to drive across town in the morning rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 And there's the north trend I was looking for on the 0z GFS. Yeah looks good, probably a solid .2 - .3 for most of the area. .3 will be further south verbatim but should be good ratios. Lets hope it's on to something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yeah looks good, probably a solid .2 - .3 for most of the area. .3 will be further south verbatim but should be good ratios. Lets hope it's on to something here. It looks like with the clippers and the cold this week we should be looking at a good snow pack through this weekend. There will be no melting with these temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 So theres a chance we can see a decent storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 So theres a chance we can see a decent storm! Best chance attm is I-70 and South I think. Text output on the GFS shows a pretty sharp cutoff. For example KPIT gets about .15 while KAGC gets .21 on the 06z GFS. Todays 12z runs should be interesting to see if they woble North or South. A 50-100 mile North jog wold be ideal I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Best chance attm is I-70 and South I think. Text output on the GFS shows a pretty sharp cutoff. For example KPIT gets about .15 while KAGC gets .21 on the 06z GFS. Todays 12z runs should be interesting to see if they woble North or South. A 50-100 mile North jog wold be ideal I think. NAM is coming in further North. Looking real good for the Southern portion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Ill bet this is the time were the system does not come NW like it always does. How about a little feb 5 2010 shift.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 . Looks good, and that map is probably reasonably accurate given we won't be dealing with different layers of the atmosphere being a degree or 2 on either side of freezing, should be solidly below at all levels so you can take it with a much smaller grain of salt than usual. If other modeling agrees, I suspect at the very least WWAs go up. Looks like a line from central Butler though Armstrong is where the totals really drop off just eyebaling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1144 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014 ...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... PAZ021-023-029-031-073-075-WVZ002>004-012-210045- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0004.140121T0900Z-140122T0000Z/ ALLEGHENY-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-BROOKE- OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...INDIANA... WASHINGTON...WAYNESBURG...GREENSBURG...LATROBE...UNIONTOWN... BETHANY...WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE 1144 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES. * SNOW BEGINNING...EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. * PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. * SNOW/ICE ENDING...TUESDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT SNOWFALL WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING 412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH. && $$ 07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Kinda funny to see a wwa for 2-5 inches then see the forecast say 40% chance and less than in an inch Of course as soon as I post that it changes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm expecting 2-3 for my backyard giving current solutions. Hoping for another nudge north so I don't have to sweat it to much watching the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Well we're right on the cusp of the 4-6" and 6-8" predictions down here. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out: despite the GFS output ATM, I'm not too confident in hitting those numbers. Not sure what the snow growth will be like around the area. For that I would appreciate an expert's opinion as it will pretty much determine what sort of ratios we see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 First front must be on the doorstep, some very light snow showers / flurries breaking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 this reminds of this pic kind of Of course we are talking significantly less accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Light snow showers are here. Visibility under a mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Euro looked to be a bit SE of the GFS based on the map posted in the Central PA thread. 00z tonight should have this pretty well locked in. Still pulling for a 25-50 mile nudge north on the heavier precip, but that's pure weenism no scientific reasoning behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS still looking juicier than the NAM. Edit: Oops! Posted same map as post above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 What's the most reliable short term model this winter?....I think GFS....except long term European seems to be better....but in the shirt term I think GFS has been solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS still looking juicier than the NAM. Edit: Oops! Posted same map as post above. Yeah definitely, NAM is a non event north of I-70 for Western PA. 18z GFS looks just a hair SE compared to 12z maybe, but really splitting hairs I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I think this will be a case of nowcast. The models are in there not move much stage. Lets just see how this pans out. My guess is 1-2. Hoping for more but staying realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 My buddy is saying 2-4....despite NWS map of 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm thinking 3-5" for me down here. 6"+ up on the mountain. Garrett will be the big winner, as always. At least I don't have to worry about the warm tongue creeping its way into the neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 where are you again mailman?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yeah I'll estimate 2-4" down here in Motown. I think the GFS is too low-res to be as accurate at this time frame. Not sure why it is showing the snowfall it is, especially considering how progressive the system is. I can buy it along the coast because at that point, the storm will be wound up and potentially bombing out. It's odd because the NAM is usually the excessively wet model. It is higher resolution and because it doesn't show much with only 12 hours to go or less, I'll bet toward the low side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 where are you again mailman?... Fayette County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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