colonel717 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 20% 800 x 600 (30.55K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 3:01 PM, Evilpens64 said: It Did ?? man I was looking at so many models my minds is a blur Same here, I am thinking it was the SE outlier even right before the storm but maybe my brain is Swiss cheese-ed from all these model runs. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 the short term RUC nailed the last storm for my area..pushing the precip further both while GFS and NAM both showed a dusting..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GFS North again, its been ticking N since 12z yesterday. Not good, probably mixing threat all the way up to I-80 now. Its a little colder than the NAM, but not much. NAM would imply plain rain pretty far north I think, so its probably right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 3:43 PM, RitualOfTheTrout said: Same here, I am thinking it was the SE outlier even right before the storm but maybe my brain is Swiss cheese-ed from all these model runs. lol hahahaha Yeah Between Pens hockey,SB ,Shoveling & Model watching my brain is fried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/snowstorm-today-followed-by-another-one-sunday-into-monday-1/22923522 Henry Margusity Vid ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 3:46 PM, bethelparksnownut said: the short term RUC nailed the last storm for my area..pushing the precip further both while GFS and NAM both showed a dusting..... yeah I thought it was RUC & RAP that showed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 4:23 PM, Evilpens64 said: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/snowstorm-today-followed-by-another-one-sunday-into-monday-1/22923522 Henry Margusity Vid ! interesting that he believes we will see some heavy snow before we could see some warm layers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Take it for what it's worth, but WTAE hour by hour has Pittsburgh and South staying mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Like i said enjoy the cold rain. Not too much hope to stay all snow, but hey crazier things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Seeing a lot of NWS text discussion around the country about ignoring the NAM, but CMC follows suit 12cmc Reduced: 65% of original size [ 849 x 720 ] - Click to view full image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Dont let model runs drive you nuts. pattern recognition techniques make me confident of major storm, not model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 5:03 PM, colonel717 said: Seeing a lot of NWS text discussion around the country about ignoring the NAM, but CMC follows suit 12cmc Reduced: 65% of original size [ 849 x 720 ] - Click to view full image I still don't see all rain like some are claiming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 RAP posted in Central thread. I think this is gonna be a terrible morning commute whether its snow/mix or freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 5:18 PM, KPITSnow said: I still don't see all rain like some are claiming. Nobody is claiming all rain. I think everyone sees a few hours of snow, but I think the warm air will save us from ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 5:17 PM, Evilpens64 said: Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Dont let model runs drive you nuts. pattern recognition techniques make me confident of major storm, not model runs I agree. Pattern recognition makes me confident that the WTOD will extend further north than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 5:38 PM, cwc said: I agree. Pattern recognition makes me confident that the WTOD will extend further north than modeled. What is WTOD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 5:41 PM, colonel717 said: What is WTOD? Warm tongue of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 5:41 PM, colonel717 said: What is WTOD? Warm tongue of doom? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 5:22 PM, psunate1977 said: Nobody is claiming all rain. I think everyone sees a few hours of snow, but I think the warm air will save us from ice. The models aren't even showing that. They are showing a prolonged period of ice. The 0c line does get north of pittsburgh but surface temps stay below freezing on most models for a long portion of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Flooding is going to be a huge concern especially in WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Its the long range vs short range models right. They are night and day different from each other. Idk what to believe. Oh well time to go out and enjoy this mild day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 5:18 PM, KPITSnow said: I still don't see all rain like some are claiming. On 2/4/2014 at 5:20 PM, meatwad said: On 2/4/2014 at 5:22 PM, psunate1977 said: Nobody is claiming all rain. I think everyone sees a few hours of snow, but I think the warm air will save us from ice. I've actually seen instances in Bethel, with storms similar to this, where I get snow for maybe a half hour and then it quickly changes over to a mess the rest of the time. Wouldn't surprise me if that happens with this one as well. That "WTOD" is almost always underestimated by the models and even the local mets. I've just seen it happen too many times with storms like this one to not think it'll happen again. Sent from my XT897 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 5:45 PM, KPITSnow said: The models aren't even showing that. They are showing a prolonged period of ice. The 0c line does get north of pittsburgh but surface temps stay below freezing on most models for a long portion of the precip. 12z Runs have been a step in the wrong direction for sure. Certainly warmer aloft which should keep snow totals down. Big question will be how long do we stay sleet before transition to zr and does the surface actually stay below freezing. Heavy rain and 31 degrees will limit icing for sure. Variables that I have no idea how much if anything will come into play, at least for the surface is the substantial fresh snow pack to our South, and the lows last night in most areas were in the teen, ie pavement temps aren't going to be terribly warm to start plus most of this is happening overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 5:59 PM, psunate1977 said: Flooding is going to be a huge concern especially in WV. Futurecast thing is Brutal ! they had me rain in the Feb. snowstorm yearts ago & ended up with 20 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 6:05 PM, blackngoldrules said: I've actually seen instances in Bethel, with storms similar to this, where I get snow for maybe a half hour and then it quickly changes over to a mess the rest of the time. Wouldn't surprise me if that happens with this one as well. That "WTOD" is almost always underestimated by the models and even the local mets. I've just seen it happen too many times with storms like this one to not think it'll happen again. Sent from my XT897 I agree, and with things trending warmer its probably even more prudent to lean on past experience. The text output of the GFS now has nearly .5 qpf as 33 degree rain at kagc. These things rarely bust colder. Not seeing a lot of reason to be optimistic if you are South of Butler and Armstrong right now for much snow. Heck I'd settle for 2 inches of sleet, that would be pretty odd to see, but guessing zr and rain end up being the main story. Keep expectations low, and hope for a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 My forecast rules for this one, for areas south of I80 and west of the ridges: If you got 6"+ from the last storm, enjoy the rain and the fact ice won't be extreme on the front end. If you got 2-5" from the last storm, it will be a typically battleground slop storm where rain eventually wins out. However, it may be impactful for a while If you got less than 2", you may see a significant snow from this one, and better chances of all frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If somehow we manage 3 inches before a change over I'll be happy. Still plenty of threats to come. Were well on our way to another 50 inch season. Believe we'll hit that in the next couple weeks. One decent storm after that and were creeping in on a 60 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 6:28 PM, Burghblizz said: My forecast rules for this one, for areas south of I80 and west of the ridges: If you got 6"+ from the last storm, enjoy the rain and the fact ice won't be extreme on the front end. This! After hearing a lot of communities are telling people to stay home if it's ice cause they only enough salts to do bends and hills is scary. I'll gladly take all rain here especially since we have white stuff on the horizon. Ice at this time could be a tragic mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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