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12/17 Clipper OBS


UlsterCountySnowZ

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Oh ok cause u posted wunder grounds radar loop I thought u meant that lol.. I was like late this afternoon???

Yeah i didnt word that very well...i just meant that the model showed the 2nd little batch that Neg Nao referenced, so im hoping its correct about that stuff swinging through later this afternoon as well.

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I think the 'bigger' show is later today with a little redevelopment and a pseuco deform band on the western flank. Closer to what the GFS was saying (but hopefully a little further NW).

 

Seems most of the shorter term models, SREF, and GFS (pending) see this.

6Z GFS has the heaviest precip early this evening

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

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I think the 'bigger' show is later today with a little redevelopment and a pseuco deform band on the western flank. Closer to what the GFS was saying (but hopefully a little further NW).

 

Seems most of the shorter term models, SREF, and GFS (pending) see this.

 

The high resolution models have two waves...one developing around 16-18z and moving quickly northeast, and a second one which moves through after a lull around 22z. This is a real test for the HRRR...it's been playing a hot hand in the past few weeks, but I will be really impressed if this comes to pass since it sniffed it out all the way at 15 hours which is extended range for such a high resolution model.

 

cref_t3sfc_f09.png

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Had just about 1" in Metuchen when I left for work this morning around 8:30 am; back roads were slick, but main roads were fine.  It's been pretty light since then, 9 miles NE of there, in Rahway, where I work, so I'm guessing 1" at most back home (will have to call my wife to check - she did say it just started snowing there again). 

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