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12/17 Clipper OBS


UlsterCountySnowZ

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light snow, all surfaces coated..this looks like a coating - 1" for everyone although I'm sure someone will come in with 1.5

 

Sounds a little *too* conservative but everyone is entitled to their view and TWT.

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Sounds a little *too* conservative but everyone is entitled to their view and TWT.

 

I think we'll still see 2-4 inches, at this point I really doubt anyone is going to changeover except perhaps Suffolk Co and that may be ERN Suffolk, the low track to me now seems as if its going to be too far SE for warm air to work in because we're sort of splitting systems now with the 2nd wave being a factor as well...no model is doing well at all on this, the HRR is verifying poorly on the snow right now (first event all winter its done this), some sort of blend of the RAP/GFS looks good to me as the RAP seems to be handling the current areas of snow better...I think we snow another 1-2 hours, a break and then sometime between 17-00Z we see a 4-5 hour period of snow again, just not sure on when...gotta watch that 2nd wave this evening very closely, especially ERN areas.

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Sounds a little *too* conservative but everyone is entitled to their view and TWT.

 

Well I was speaking mainly in regards to this initial wave of snow. The second/third rounds are a bit of a wild card not only given the track and intensity uncertainties but also the boundary layer temperatures.

 

Anyway the HRRR shows three rounds of snow today:

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2013121709&plotName=1ref_sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=full

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The radar looked really bad before but some heavier echoes are developing just to our southwest and moving ne. 25f so it's definitely going to make things icy.

Radar still looks really bad - where is this 3 - 5 inches coming from exactly ? Very few storm closings or delays also here in central nj

 

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?num=6&delay=15&scale=1.00&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0

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Who said 3-5? This has always been a 1-3 type deal with perhaps more near ne jersey. We will have a 2nd batch of snow, could be rain as we need to watch temps

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After a quick inch around the area , we break for a few hours , and temps rise ahead of the 2 nd round .The 2nd round is developing in CPA and NWV. That " should "intensify and moves through the I95 corridor .

When that snow starts temps will fall again , because 850`s are Minus 3 by that point , so yes we  will warm because we are dry - but as the moisture falls it will cool the column .

 

I always thought 2 to 4 - but if the GFS is right then Upton will be right .

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It's more tenuous that what meets the eye. This is where one cannot just look at the qpf and project amounts. GFS had a developing deformation band on back side as SLP develops. If all works out it could really shock folks.

Mt holly has always had 1-3 for the entire event. Why would you believe 3-5? Most models had 2-4 at most

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