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Central PA & The Fringes - December 2013 Part III


PennMan

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Squall flew through here around 2:00pm.  Ground lightly coated with maybe 0.1" of snow...mostly on the grass and mulched areas.  Temp dropped from 36 down to 33 degrees in about 15 minutes.  It looked really nice.  Second consecutive Christmas Eve with measurable snowfall.  Last year I got 2" of snow between 4:00pm and 7:00pm.  The sun came out after the squall passed and melted the tiny coating.

 

Now the temp is down to 28 with a biting wind.  I kind of enjoyed the brief warmup over the weekend even though it took away my snowpack.

 

Have a nice Christmas Eve everyone!

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Model runs the last day or so have suddenly started picking up more on a storm running up the coast in the Sun-Mon timeframe. 0z GFS and Canadian thus far tonight has shown solid precip into most of PA and a decent track. The problem? The southern stream storm is running up on the heels of the brief moderation in temps we will see this weekend ahead of the next cold air mass. The cold air mass is not really there to help PA with the storm and Canadian P-type loop shows mainly rain in PA. GFS showed a highly marginal situation for the central third where 850s are at or slightly below zero, arguably a shot of wet snow...but barely. Looks like a potentially elevation driven type of event if it came to fruition as it is at the moment...as the developing 850 low on the coast tries to deepen enough and cool the column from top to bottom. 

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Oh and then there's this just fresh off the press..for the rest of tonight into the morning (some light snow falling here attm):

 

 

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BANDED SNOWFALL IN PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PA EARLY
THIS MORNING. PERSISTENT WEAK WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH LIFT IN
THE EXIT REGION OF 250 MB 130KT JET NOSING INTO S CENTRAL PA IS
HELPING TO FORCE ASCENT. CROSS SECTIONS OF FRONTOGENESIS AND SATURATED
EPV INDICATE THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNSTABLE TO SLANTWISE
DISPLACEMENTS AND THAT THERE IS A SLOPED FRONTOGENETICAL REGION
ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES NUMEROUS BAND OF LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL FROM KPBZ THROUGH THE LYCOMING
VALLEY WHERE SOME 30 DBZ ECHOES ARE SCANNED SOUTH OF WILLIAMSPORT.
COMBINATION OF HIGH RESOLUTION MESO MODELS AND CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS SUGGESTS 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY FROM THE WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE LYCOMING VALLEY THROUGH
MID MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WHERE
BANDING REMAINS STATIONARY OR THERE IS TRAINING.

GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE ON THIS...BUT DID RETOUCH GRIDS AND
UP AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY WITH SOME 2-3" AMOUNTS NOW INDICATED. WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH CLOSELY THIS MORNING AS THESE SITUATIONS CAN
TURN INTO THE "INCH OR 6" VARIETY WHEN FRONTOGENETICAL ENHANCEMENT
OF CSI SNOW BANDS IS INVOLVED. ALSO AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED...THE
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAX IS ALIGNED FAVORABLY WITH THE PREFERRED
THERMAL RIBBON FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH DURING THIS PERIOD...RESULTING
MORE EFFICENT SNOW ACCUMULATION/HIGHER SNOW:WATER RATIOS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS...TO AROUND 20F THROUGHOUT
THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.

post-1507-0-15335500-1388039415_thumb.pn

 

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It looks like the 850's cool enough on euro this run.  Surface looks warm. Higher elevations might do well.

 

Euro def looks like the coldest of the bunch on the major 0z model suite, as well as a bit east with heavier precip. Supportive temps in MDT and LNS via text data along with about a half inch or so of QPF. 2m temps a lil warm (33-34ish) but 850s below zero. Certainly indicative of a wet snowfall in this type of situation.  AOO-UNV-IPT corridor has about 0.2" QPF. 

 

Either way, looks like we have something to track in the 90-102hr range.. not to mention a potential morning surprise as our regular posters check in later this morning. 

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