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Central PA & The Fringes - December 2013 Part III


PennMan

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Tombo posted this on Phillywx, if only....that is a fantastic pattern for us:

 

euro 11-15 day ens switched to a colder look. By the end of the run, active stj combined with a pressing pv from the north combined with -epo and se ridge in response to the trof out west. Bottom line gradient right over us, sound familiar?

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Too bad the only real break in the cold comes right before Xmas. 

It reminds me of the 2011 Winter Classic New Years day at Heinz Field between the Pens and the Capitals. We had snow and cold for a month up until days before the game. The snow and cold would have been perfect conditions for outdoor hockey at Heinz Field. New Years Day the temp shot up and we got rain and ruined the event weather wise.

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It reminds me of the 2011 Winter Classic New Years day at Heinz Field between the Pens and the Capitals. We had snow and cold for a month up until days before the game. The snow and cold would have been perfect conditions for outdoor hockey at Heinz Field. New Years Day the temp shot up and we got rain and ruined the event weather wise.

 

and then the Capitals won... hahahhahahaa

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It's amazing how much variation there can be over just a few miles. I am guessing you live somewhat in a valley? It was 25.4 at Walker building for the same time.

Yeah.  Walker building is around 1175' and I'm at 860' in Bellefonte...we get some serious cold air drainage.  There was one morning back in November where my temperature was 21* lower than the airport less than 6 miles away.

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It's amazing how much variation there can be over just a few miles. I am guessing you live somewhat in a valley? It was 25.4 at Walker building for the same time.

We were at 7.7.

 

I'm at 1100' right in Port Matilda. The entire Bald Eagle Valley gets like this. Usually it's 10 degrees difference from UNV but today it was even more pronounced. 

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Another temp disparity night. I am at 28.8 and stuff has refreezed. UNV is 39. Sky has that odd hazy/foggy look that happens during warmups over snowcover.

 

 

Upper levels are definitely warmer than the valleys. Whether it's WAA or just cold air draining again, check out Scranton's, Allentown's, and Mount Pocono's temps this morning at 5:00AM...

 

SCRANTON 33

MOUNT POCONO 44

ALLENTOWN 31

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Looking at some discussion on the mid-range here and at PhillyWx, it appears like once we enjoy our Sunday of spring, we move into a pretty interesting pattern.

 

The Euro ensemble means has some wild stuff:

post-1498-0-82060300-1387594888_thumb.jp

 

As for Sunday, we all love extreme weather and I'd say 60-70 degrees right before Christmas fits the bill. If you hate the mild, at least it appears like we have some good times ahead for winter weather.

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DT is sounding the alarm for some brutal cold air after the new year.

 

THE COMING BLAST?
December 20, 2013 at 7:25pm

What I am about to show you is pretty significant and I believe it is a strong indication that the pattern is about to turn severely cold after January 1.  Before we get started however let me explain a couple points here.  

 

Most of the really significant big snowstorms which have occurred   over the Midwest and the East Coast have occurred during a major arctic air outbreak.  The reason why this is so because in order to get a large scale arctic air outbreak the Jetstream pattern has  to be shift to the south... and in doing so the entire storm track gets shifted to the south as well.That being  said  ...I am NOT  saying that if  it gets very cold a big snowstorm is LIKELY  to happen.  What I am saying is that when you have a large scale arctic outbreak the pattern and the conditions for significant snowstorm a more favorable than if you don't have one.

 

 

Second besides all these weather models ...  let me again point out that the January  +TNH pattern strongly favors the POLAR VORTEX  dropping south towards the Great Lakes  / or   South Central Canada.  It is this shift southward which is what allows the AO  / arctic oscillation to move from positive to negative and enables significant /  widespread cold air  utbreaks to occur.     The last time we had a winter which featured the dominance of a +TNH pattern was the historic winter of 1993 - 1994.     Keep in mind that in that winter   --which was forecasted to be a mild winter  the   AO / arctic oscillation was strongly positive    a was the NAO.--    was one of the coldnest and nasty  wintwers   with  snow  and big ice  storms   for some areas of the country in the last 80 years.  It was the last time for example that New York City and foil few drop down below zero.As you go through these maps notice that several the analog years are JANUARY 1994.

 

 

Below we have 9 maps... 3 in each set.  The first map in each set comes from the analogs as developed by STORM VISTA.  Using the same method that is used at CPC ....  Map  #1  one shows the 11 to 15 day   2 meter  temperatures   from European ENSEMBLE  from EARLY    Friday morning.  Notice in the lower right corner of map number one we can see the analogs listed.  Notice also the large area of dark blue in South Central Canada which appears to be moving into the northern portions of the CONUS  and the Great Lakes.  This is a strong sign of a significant colder outbreak.

 

 

MAP #2 shows the actual temperatures relative to normal    for the upcoming 11-15 day .  The temperatures on these maps are in degrees Kelvin which for our purposes is the same thing as degrees Celsius  ( so  -01k  is  equal to -10c   or-15 f).     

 

 

MAP #3 shows the temperatures for all of the U.S.  If we were to take these January analogs and extend them for the rest of the month.  This last map is of course a little risky since you  are essentially taking an extrapolation based upon a extended forecast

 

 

1525221_621978374516091_741346793_n.jpg

 

 

The second row of maps --  #4  #5  #6 is from the   12z  GFS  ENSEMBLE  mean from the midday on Friday.  

 

 

Notice the strike is similarities here in the overall temperature maps and patterns.  The cold air is a little further place to the north in the  11-15  day but it still looks like is headed for the Great Lakes and the East Coast in a big way.  Notice the temperatures are pretty cold for the eastern half of country and the very warm temperatures over the Rockies and the West Coast are now missing from this particular model .

 

 

1476485_621978414516087_529096467_n.jpg

 

 

The third row of MAPS  -- #7  #8   #9 presents the 12z  the late Friday afternoon  EURO ensemble.  Interestingly... It  is  almost as severely cold as the early morning European  ensemble  was !!.

 

 

1507955_621978477849414_633114010_n.jpg

 

 

Between the characteristics of a  +TNH pattern...  Which allows for the arctic oscillation to shift from  positive to negative as the polor l vortex is forced southward...  and the strong analog agreements with the overall pattern...  I am fairly confident that we are going to see a severe cold air outbreak during the first week of January.  Of course the KEY  issue here is the movement southward of the pv-- Polar Vortex.     If it turns out that the PV  ends up staying further north then obviously the intensive the cold would be significantly different as well as the duration

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