JamieOber Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Tombo posted this on Phillywx, if only....that is a fantastic pattern for us: euro 11-15 day ens switched to a colder look. By the end of the run, active stj combined with a pressing pv from the north combined with -epo and se ridge in response to the trof out west. Bottom line gradient right over us, sound familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Too bad the only real break in the cold comes right before Xmas. It reminds me of the 2011 Winter Classic New Years day at Heinz Field between the Pens and the Capitals. We had snow and cold for a month up until days before the game. The snow and cold would have been perfect conditions for outdoor hockey at Heinz Field. New Years Day the temp shot up and we got rain and ruined the event weather wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 The rain was a curse too. We almost lost our best player for life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Not gonna lie, I'm pretty excited for the 60s this weekend. Hoping for wind and rain too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Jamie, you requested a photo from the icy Susquehanna. I couldn't pass up today's sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Nice pic canderson, I'm down there quite a bit on business!! Beautiful sight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 what are the chances of a snow game Steelers vs Packers this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 It reminds me of the 2011 Winter Classic New Years day at Heinz Field between the Pens and the Capitals. We had snow and cold for a month up until days before the game. The snow and cold would have been perfect conditions for outdoor hockey at Heinz Field. New Years Day the temp shot up and we got rain and ruined the event weather wise. and then the Capitals won... hahahhahahaa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 earth wind map... http://earth.nullschool.net/ ... if you click on earth in bottom left corner there are some features you can change (won't work in internet explorer for me but works just fine in firefox) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 Frigid in Bellefonte this morning. 8* when I left the house at 7:40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Frigid in Bellefonte this morning. 8* when I left the house at 7:40. It's amazing how much variation there can be over just a few miles. I am guessing you live somewhat in a valley? It was 25.4 at Walker building for the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 It's amazing how much variation there can be over just a few miles. I am guessing you live somewhat in a valley? It was 25.4 at Walker building for the same time. Yeah. Walker building is around 1175' and I'm at 860' in Bellefonte...we get some serious cold air drainage. There was one morning back in November where my temperature was 21* lower than the airport less than 6 miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 It's amazing how much variation there can be over just a few miles. I am guessing you live somewhat in a valley? It was 25.4 at Walker building for the same time. We were at 7.7. I'm at 1100' right in Port Matilda. The entire Bald Eagle Valley gets like this. Usually it's 10 degrees difference from UNV but today it was even more pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 The temperature just shot up 7 degrees in 10 minutes here...warm air making inroads in the valley. Felt downright balmy at the office south of Bellefonte when I left at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 It is still kind of cool here, temp sitting at 35*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Forecast high today was 42, Walker is already showing 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Jump to 41.4 now. It feels warm out, 60's on Sunday is going to feel crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Another temp disparity night. I am at 28.8 and stuff has refreezed. UNV is 39. Sky has that odd hazy/foggy look that happens during warmups over snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Another temp disparity night. I am at 28.8 and stuff has refreezed. UNV is 39. Sky has that odd hazy/foggy look that happens during warmups over snowcover. Upper levels are definitely warmer than the valleys. Whether it's WAA or just cold air draining again, check out Scranton's, Allentown's, and Mount Pocono's temps this morning at 5:00AM... SCRANTON 33 MOUNT POCONO 44 ALLENTOWN 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 On my way home now...so many dirty snowpacks :s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Greetings from Austin, Texas, where the high will hit 76. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Greetings from Austin, Texas, where the high will hit 76. Enjoy it...36 and rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Greetings from Austin, Texas, where the high will hit 76. overcast 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Back home: 39 and cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 33 and cloudy drizzly imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Greetings from Austin, Texas, where the high will hit 76. Ha! You should have went last week when the temp was in the 20's here. Enjoy the time with your family!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Looking at some discussion on the mid-range here and at PhillyWx, it appears like once we enjoy our Sunday of spring, we move into a pretty interesting pattern. The Euro ensemble means has some wild stuff: As for Sunday, we all love extreme weather and I'd say 60-70 degrees right before Christmas fits the bill. If you hate the mild, at least it appears like we have some good times ahead for winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 DT is sounding the alarm for some brutal cold air after the new year. THE COMING BLAST? December 20, 2013 at 7:25pm What I am about to show you is pretty significant and I believe it is a strong indication that the pattern is about to turn severely cold after January 1. Before we get started however let me explain a couple points here. Most of the really significant big snowstorms which have occurred over the Midwest and the East Coast have occurred during a major arctic air outbreak. The reason why this is so because in order to get a large scale arctic air outbreak the Jetstream pattern has to be shift to the south... and in doing so the entire storm track gets shifted to the south as well.That being said ...I am NOT saying that if it gets very cold a big snowstorm is LIKELY to happen. What I am saying is that when you have a large scale arctic outbreak the pattern and the conditions for significant snowstorm a more favorable than if you don't have one. Second besides all these weather models ... let me again point out that the January +TNH pattern strongly favors the POLAR VORTEX dropping south towards the Great Lakes / or South Central Canada. It is this shift southward which is what allows the AO / arctic oscillation to move from positive to negative and enables significant / widespread cold air utbreaks to occur. The last time we had a winter which featured the dominance of a +TNH pattern was the historic winter of 1993 - 1994. Keep in mind that in that winter --which was forecasted to be a mild winter the AO / arctic oscillation was strongly positive a was the NAO.-- was one of the coldnest and nasty wintwers with snow and big ice storms for some areas of the country in the last 80 years. It was the last time for example that New York City and foil few drop down below zero.As you go through these maps notice that several the analog years are JANUARY 1994. Below we have 9 maps... 3 in each set. The first map in each set comes from the analogs as developed by STORM VISTA. Using the same method that is used at CPC .... Map #1 one shows the 11 to 15 day 2 meter temperatures from European ENSEMBLE from EARLY Friday morning. Notice in the lower right corner of map number one we can see the analogs listed. Notice also the large area of dark blue in South Central Canada which appears to be moving into the northern portions of the CONUS and the Great Lakes. This is a strong sign of a significant colder outbreak. MAP #2 shows the actual temperatures relative to normal for the upcoming 11-15 day . The temperatures on these maps are in degrees Kelvin which for our purposes is the same thing as degrees Celsius ( so -01k is equal to -10c or-15 f). MAP #3 shows the temperatures for all of the U.S. If we were to take these January analogs and extend them for the rest of the month. This last map is of course a little risky since you are essentially taking an extrapolation based upon a extended forecast The second row of maps -- #4 #5 #6 is from the 12z GFS ENSEMBLE mean from the midday on Friday. Notice the strike is similarities here in the overall temperature maps and patterns. The cold air is a little further place to the north in the 11-15 day but it still looks like is headed for the Great Lakes and the East Coast in a big way. Notice the temperatures are pretty cold for the eastern half of country and the very warm temperatures over the Rockies and the West Coast are now missing from this particular model . The third row of MAPS -- #7 #8 #9 presents the 12z the late Friday afternoon EURO ensemble. Interestingly... It is almost as severely cold as the early morning European ensemble was !!. Between the characteristics of a +TNH pattern... Which allows for the arctic oscillation to shift from positive to negative as the polor l vortex is forced southward... and the strong analog agreements with the overall pattern... I am fairly confident that we are going to see a severe cold air outbreak during the first week of January. Of course the KEY issue here is the movement southward of the pv-- Polar Vortex. If it turns out that the PV ends up staying further north then obviously the intensive the cold would be significantly different as well as the duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 He then responded to his own article with his "Elvis has left the building" gimmick. I wonder if brutal cold comes with pictures of very large dogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 41 here. It went from 37 to 50 in 30 seconds when we drove over a ridge into State College today. Really holds onto cold around here. Probably will finally break it tonight, but still cold air dammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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