CarlislePaWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Unbelievable! Look at how many closed contours there are at 700 and 500. 8 closed at 700 and more amazing 5 closed at 500. The latter truly represents an intense storm which appears to have gone negative by this timeframe. A lot of you were eeny-weenie back in 1994. That January produced almost everything winter is ever capable of dishing out. Historic cold with the shattering of all-time record lows. Multiple nights below zero F. Harrisburg all-time low of -22F around the 20th (I cant precisely remember the date but it's +/- 1 day). Tons of snow, but no one storm was over a foot. Break out the Parkas and the snowsuits IF all of these predictions come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I agree with others that one must set their expectations to be reasonable, BUT the fact that we are 2.5 to 3 days before the storm instead of 9 - 10 days before the storm helps one to be a bit more excited. One awesome model run does not a snowstorm make, but certainly the trends have been better. Let us see what tonight's and tomorrow's models show us. Come on Winter - bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Thanks everyone for the replies. Will be fun to watch, regardless if it disappears for most of Central PA or not. Tracking is better than having nothing to track, for sure. Would be awesome if the entire region, from the border all the way up to Potter-ville (I miss him ) could get a plowable snow all together though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Unbelievable! Look at how many closed contours there are at 700 and 500. 8 closed at 700 and more amazing 5 closed at 500. The latter truly represents an intense storm which appears to have gone negative by this timeframe. A lot of you were eeny-weenie back in 1994. That January produced almost everything winter is ever capable of dishing out. Historic cold with the shattering of all-time record lows. Multiple nights below zero F. Harrisburg all-time low of -22F around the 20th (I cant precisely remember the date but it's +/- 1 day). Tons of snow, but no one storm was over a foot. Break out the Parkas and the snowsuits IF all of these predictions come true. Fighting fire's during that time really sucked. Honestly, doing anything outside during that time sucked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 My spidey sense is tingling for Mason-Dixon north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro ensembles shifted south as well per other forums. This is looking like a DC north special. Great trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 NAM isn't budging...still crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Someone calling themselves "eastern pa weather authority" is posting verbatim snow maps on facebook. Anyone know who it is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Someone calling themselves "eastern pa weather authority" is posting verbatim snow maps on facebook. Anyone know who it is? They are group of mets from the Allentown area who have a rather large following. They aren't bad, but they do tend to wear snow goggles at times though, and look for anyway possible for things to be wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 They are group of mets from the Allentown area who have a rather large following. They aren't bad, but they do tend to wear snow goggles at times though, and look for anyway possible for things to be wintry. Snow googles haha. Classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 They are group of mets from the Allentown area who have a rather large following. They aren't bad, but they do tend to wear snow goggles at times though, and look for anyway possible for things to be wintry. Ah ok. It's weird to see mets releasing verbatim maps to the public. A public who will take it literally then flame the mets when the verbatim map is wrong, but whatever. Here's the text accompanying the map: ***ALERT: EUROPEAN MODEL GOES NOR'EASTER ROUTE FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY*** We are now sounding the alarms... This is a threat that we need to start taking very seriously. This is no longer a question of if a storm is coming, but rather how much. No model has anything less than 2 to 4 inches, and Euro just showed the upside potential. This is not an official call from us yet, but you need to start thinking about alternate plans for the end of this week with regard to travel. The whole idea here is to be prepared for the worst and hope for the best. It is not often that we use such strong working with regard to a storm potential, but this threat is only 72 to 100 hours out, and it is not often that the European model is wrong to this degree at this range. We are taking it very seriously and we recommend that all of you do as well. If the larger amounts do not work out as shown on this map, at least you were prepared for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Ah ok. It's weird to see mets releasing verbatim maps to the public. A public who will take it literally then flame the mets when the verbatim map is wrong, but whatever. Here's the text accompanying the map: The maps don't bother me as much as the text. They are implying a near doomsday type snow event, and, like you said, if it ends up being a modest 6-8 type event, then everyone looks bad. They do leave themselves an "out" at the end of the write-up, but many will never see that after reading the main part of the post. Personally, I know this storm has the POTENTIAL to be a good one, but I think it would be wise to err on the side of caution for another 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 LOL ---- My point-and-click gives me 36 degrees and RAIN on Thursday. Reading the disco the met clearly states that it will be very cold throughout the storm. I'm not concerned at all at this point, but where on earth did they get the rain idea from? No model gives us rain on Thursday! BTW---can someone post Eric Horst's disco from today? Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 LOL ---- My point-and-click gives me 36 degrees and RAIN on Thursday. Reading the disco the met clearly states that it will be very cold throughout the storm. I'm not concerned at all at this point, but where on earth did they get the rain idea from? No model gives us rain on Thursday! BTW---can someone post Eric Horst's disco from today? Thx. I have rain/snow and 30... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 LOL ---- My point-and-click gives me 36 degrees and RAIN on Thursday. Reading the disco the met clearly states that it will be very cold throughout the storm. I'm not concerned at all at this point, but where on earth did they get the rain idea from? No model gives us rain on Thursday! BTW---can someone post Eric Horst's disco from today? Thx. They also have rain/snow for State College (and a high of 32F...). I think they just haven't put a lot of thought into the grids just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The maps don't bother me as much as the text. They are implying a near doomsday type snow event, and, like you said, if it ends up being a modest 6-8 type event, then everyone looks bad. They do leave themselves an "out" at the end of the write-up, but many will never see that after reading the main part of the post. Personally, I know this storm has the POTENTIAL to be a good one, but I think it would be wise to err on the side of caution for another 24 hours. I can't get past their horrible website. Looks like it was done by a 10 year old on acid back in 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GFS just trended to the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 LOL ---- My point-and-click gives me 36 degrees and RAIN on Thursday. Reading the disco the met clearly states that it will be very cold throughout the storm. I'm not concerned at all at this point, but where on earth did they get the rain idea from? No model gives us rain on Thursday! BTW---can someone post Eric Horst's disco from today? Thx. For Thursday, they have me at: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I had a go round with them back this summer. They stated unequivocally that there was no chance of tornados during a watch. I called them out on it, the response was "we have the same degrees as the NWS". there was a tornado reported in their area that night. They are trying to be legit, but I can't help to think of them as a bunch of young kids trying to be the next DT or Accuwx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I can't help to think of them as a bunch of young kids trying to be the next DT or Accuwx. That's the impression I get as well. Sad because the general public will run with the info they publish and never think twice about it. IMO, it's stuff like this that gives mets a bad reputation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GFS ended well all things considered. General 0,25+ QPF - below that appearing in the LSV though. 0.50+ in extreme NEPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Subzero temps reaching to UNV on this run. IPT-AVP between -5 and -10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'll take P005, please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'll take P005, please! p5please.gif I bet you would lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'll take P005, please! p5please.gif P004 and P009 aren't that bad either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I think we are at least looking at a general light (2-3") snowfall in PA from this system. The question being if we can see the more amped up Euro solution come to fruition and give us all a big snowfall. The Euro actually looks more to the tune of the 12z GFS, except that it is further north and a good bit deeper/wetter of course. But I like how they both got the 850 low tracking just underneath PA now which is more supportive of the best swath of snow involving everyone. 18z GFS did kinda go the way of the NAM a bit but still has that swath of a few inches of snow. Not that I'm gonna be putting my life on the 18z GFS or the NAM outside of T-6 hrs till storm time or anything haha. I like the look of things, the basic pieces are def there for a big northeast snowstorm. NAO/PNA teleconnections look to be nuetral-ish though, so I think last nights Euro run with its sub 970mb bomb over Cape Cod is probably too strong, but that doesn't mean we can't still have a big storm. We're kind of in a familiar place with the GFS southeast and weak with the surface low and the Euro much stronger. Both models do develop pretty highly anomalous easterly flow at 850mb, on the order of -2 st deviations or so on the GFS in PA and more than -3 over the eastern 2/3rd of the state on the Euro. Presence of this is usually a good sign for a decent snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Any way this can still go wrong MAG - e.g. is it possible that 2-3 becomes our ceiling instead of the floor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Good write up Mag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Paul Knight on Weather World earlier tonight sounded like he was concerned that by the time the storm really got going it would be past us, which would lead me to think he would believe 2-3 would be the ceiling. That could also have been an issue of earlier taping vs model runs being later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I have a problem with a graphic on Facebook showing the "greatest odds for a major or crippling storm". That's simply hype at this point and irresponsible to put it out there. Sorry just had to vent and get that off My chest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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