Central PA & The Fringes - December 2013 Part III

[MAG5035]

Knowing nothing is set in stone with models, the recurring theme I have seen for the last several runs seems to be a trough setup a little to far west for eastern PA'ers with systems coming up with no cold air to work with or systems going up west of us. Then after the system moves north of us, we go back to the deep freeze. I am hopeful that this will not occur as December surely has started us off on the snowy start. Other indices such as the NAO (looks to stay positive), the PNA (looks to go slightly positive for a bit) and the AO looks to go negative in mid Jan, but that has been modeled before. But perhaps as I saw posted by MAG maybe it will be a winter that will continue to snow even when the models say otherwise. Certainly yesterday's surprise snowfall was a nice bonus. 

 

This weekend storm is rather maddening. Given the track and source of this storm, this normally should be a no nonsense 4-8" type event for most or all of us in our subforum. But having the cold air displaced to the west and waiting til after the wave is long gone before crashing through is going to make seeing any snow with this system rely on the deepening and precip rates associated with the storm itself, and it would probably only be a narrow swath of a few slushy inches of snow where placement would be reliant on the eventual track of the low. That situation would tend to favor the JST to UNV to IPT corridor (and/or north central PA) with its generally higher elevations, but that region might miss the best precip rates depending on what model you look at and hence the best dynamics to get flakes to the ground. Gonna be quite a marginal situation whatever ends up happening, but unfortunately I think the majority of us will be seeing primarily a cold rain at this point. 

[JamieOber]

This weekend storm is rather maddening. Given the track and source of this storm, this normally should be a no nonsense 4-8" type event for most or all of us in our subforum. But having the cold air displaced to the west and waiting til after the wave is long gone before crashing through is going to make seeing any snow with this system rely on the deepening and precip rates associated with the storm itself, and it would probably only be a narrow swath of a few slushy inches of snow where placement would be reliant on the eventual track of the low. That situation would tend to favor the JST to UNV to IPT corridor (and/or north central PA) with its generally higher elevations, but that region might miss the best precip rates depending on what model you look at and hence the best dynamics to get flakes to the ground. Gonna be quite a marginal situation whatever ends up happening, but unfortunately I think the majority of us will be seeing primarily a cold rain at this point. 

The GFS would bring the rates, the Euro doesn't, so it's another showdown between those two.

[Rick G]

1" in New Salem from last night's snow.  Funny how everyone flips out over a few snowflakes.

It is because everyone is waiting for the big one:

you know the one all the models have 5 days out,

that the NWS puts out a winter storm watch on 2 days out then DT starts barking like a dog.

the nws puts out a winter storm warning one day out,

then the NWS puts out the blizzard watch 12 hours before

then the NWS puts out the blizzard warning 6 hours before

then the NWS puts out the Extreme blizzard warning 3 hours out

then the NWS puts out the super extreme blizzard warning 2 hours out followed

by the NWS putting out the deadly super extreme blizzard out 1 hour before it its and

Colin states it has busted 30 minutes after it started.

[NortheastPAWx]

^ Colin? Haven't heard from him since Eastern.

[Rick G]

^{I think he was banned, because of his whining, I had to have a scapegoat...}

[NortheastPAWx]

^{I think he was banned, because of his whining, I had to have a scapegoat...}

Should've used wmsptwx lol

[Santa Clause]

Lol, low blow PSU, I've been on the up and up for awhile. 

[Voyager]

Not sure what to make of it, but it appears as if the 6z GFS tries to give us a little love on 1/2-3/14.

[NortheastPAWx]

Not sure what to make of it, but it appears as if the 6z GFS tries to give us a little love on 1/2-3/14.

ECM had it suppressed so we'll see.

[WmsptWx]

Lol, low blow PSU, I've been on the up and up for awhile.

You sounded the "bust" alarm at 1:00 pm on the last storm and the storm responded by dropping a nine spot on Williamsport.

lol scapegoat

[JamieOber]

Man, is the Sunday storm ever going to be a close call. Seems like euro and gfs has flipped somewhat, Euro appears colder but not sure.

[NortheastPAWx]

Man, is the Sunday storm ever going to be a close call. Seems like euro and gfs has flipped somewhat, Euro appears colder but not sure.

Good luck with it, looks like a cold rain here.

[Santa Clause]

Time to punt Sunday....2nd looks interesting.

[NortheastPAWx]

DT pretty much said that the 1/2-3 event looks like a southern storm.

[easternsnowman]

Maybe with enough elevation there could be some snow at the but not in the Wilkes Barre

[JamieOber]

Lol, low blow PSU, I've been on the up and up for awhile. 

Yeah and plus, this has been a pretty bad start to winter for those who are more interested in complaining about weather sucking than enjoying snow.

[daxx]

The euro looked nice for everyone next Thursday for snow!  Lets hope it holds.

[Santa Clause]

Yeah and plus, this has been a pretty bad start to winter for those who are more interested in complaining about weather sucking than enjoying snow.

Very true!! Nothing at all to complain about!! Hoping we miss a lot of the precip tmrw I really don't want a gully washer.

[NortheastPAWx]

Anyone want to elaborate on the 12z ECM?

[MAG5035]

Anyone want to elaborate on the 12z ECM?

 

Should see the whole thing here momentarily, just have the text to 168 hours attm. Looked like everyone had .5-.6" as snow for this 1/3 event. 

[Itstrainingtime]

The euro looked nice for everyone next Thursday for snow!  Lets hope it holds.

 

 

Just in time for my return to work.   Let's hope we can all get a nice event. Seems like it's been forever since the entire region had a significant snowfall.

[Santa Clause]

From what I gathered warmer tomorrow(like it matters) and a nice advisory event Thursday.

[JamieOber]

Should see the whole thing here momentarily, just have the text to 168 hours attm. Looked like everyone had .5-.6" as snow for this 1/3 event. 

Really cold right afterwards too.

[sauss06]

Really cold right afterwards too.

Looks really cold 

[MAG5035]

From what I gathered warmer tomorrow(like it matters) and a nice advisory event Thursday.

 

i'd still watch tomorrow to be honest, esp up in your neck of the woods. Euro isn't really any different temp wise than last night or the last couple of runs. UNV and IPT are still borderline. 18z tomorrow afternoon has you at 0.4ºC (32.7ºF) at 2m and 0.9ºC (33.6ºF) in the midst of the event. UNV has similar numbers. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of those situations where a slug of very heavy precip rides up through the central counties and overwhelms the column causing a quick couple inches of wet snow. More likely of course is that it will remain a cold rain, with a late changeover in the Laurels and perhaps the far north central. 

 

That's a nice event on the Euro for just after New Years. Dives a decent northern branch system down into the Ohio Valley transferring to the coast and winding up into a significant coastal. GFS similar but definitely not as strong as what the Euro has. The European develops anomalous easterly flow at 850mb in eastern Penn that eventually is on the order of -3 std deviations in southern New England as the low rapidly deepens south of the New England coast. Pretty much a wall to wall moderate event in PA that becomes a biggie in New England verbatim. 

[sferic]

i'd still watch tomorrow to be honest, esp up in your neck of the woods. Euro isn't really any different temp wise than last night or the last couple of runs. UNV and IPT are still borderline. 18z tomorrow afternoon has you at 0.4ºC (32.7ºF) at 2m and 0.9ºC (33.6ºF) in the midst of the event. UNV has similar numbers. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of those situations where a slug of very heavy precip rides up through the central counties and overwhelms the column causing a quick couple inches of wet snow. More likely of course is that it will remain a cold rain, with a late changeover in the Laurels and perhaps the far north central. 

 

That's a nice event on the Euro for just after New Years. Dives a decent northern branch system down into the Ohio Valley transferring to the coast and winding up into a significant coastal. GFS similar but definitely not as strong as what the Euro has. The European develops anomalous easterly flow at 850mb in eastern Penn that eventually is on the order of -3 std deviations in southern New England as the low rapidly deepens south of the New England coast. Pretty much a wall to wall moderate event in PA that becomes a biggie in New England verbatim. 

 

 

Can the western Catskills, (liberty NY at 1,600feet) eek out 4 inches or remain mainly frozen tomorrow?

[Santa Clause]

Just checked the AFD... Looks like most areas with meaningful precip. stay all rain.

[canderson]

Today is a gorgeous day. No clouds, no wind, near 50. Ht a chance to scrub the salt off the car, pick up a few bags of leaves and various other tasks you can't do when it's cold.

Looking forward to the rain to wash the salt off all the roads, it looks lie a salt mine around here.

[MAG5035]

Can the western Catskills, (liberty NY at 1,600feet) eek out 4 inches or remain mainly frozen tomorrow?

 

Had a look at the text data for nearby Monticello, NY (around 1400 ft) , and it is extremely borderline. Temps from 850 on down are pretty much between 0-1ºC. Elevation will definitely play a role up there for sure. I wouldn't have a problem thinking that elevations above say 2500ft pick up a few inches of snow and perhaps a bit more on the highest peaks of the Catskills. Down around 1500 ft will probably have a later changeover if it occurs and perhaps up to an inch or so. 

[Voyager]

Hopefully more down around the Mason-Dixon Line. I would do almost anything for a February 5th-6th 2010 type of gradient.

 

You should be banned or timed out for this statement. What you wish for is to screw half of State College's CWA. That was a horrific storm for some of us.