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Central PA & The Fringes - December 2013 Part III


PennMan

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Closing in on two inches here now. Roadways are a disaster, I think I'll be waiting awhile before I head back to Centre County.

 same here, I am near 1.5 inches. roads are a disaster. almost  rammed a car at the bottom of a hill with  my jeep. I couldn't get traction. and it is still snowing.

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1.5 inches here and moderate snow has bled to heavy snow.  It is adding up fast with these rates and cold.  What a great surprise,  I think 2 inches is a lock with this based on radar.  It will snow hard to moderate for the next 30 min then cutoff.  Roads are completely covered and a mess. 

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1.5 inches here and moderate snow has bled to heavy snow.  It is adding up fast with these rates and cold.  What a great surprise,  I think 2 inches is a lock with this based on radar.  It will snow hard to moderate for the next 30 min then cutoff.  Roads are completely covered and a mess. 

North of you a bit in Lower Windsor Twshp, got a quick 2 inches here and then shut off to flurries

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roads around Harrisburg were horrible more-so because of the way some people were driving than the actual snow on the road... would have been nice if the roads were salted during morning rush than just plowing because people were still getting stuck/wrecking... a normal 12 minute drive took me 35 minutes

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Total here in Carlisle for our "surprise" event was 1.1".  Very fluffy as the temp was around 24 degrees during most of the snow.  Went to bed around 12:30 and saw the radar showing echoes reaching northern half of PA but didn't expect anything down here as no forecast spoke about the potential as far as I know.

 

Too bad this couldn't have happened yesterday morning.  Imagine waking up on Christmas morning to the surprise snowfall and a white Christmas.  I know last year it snowed 2" on Christmas Eve and then it snowed again on 12/26...just like this year.

 

So, just remember...we do have our share of "busts" from time-to-time but we also occasionally have pleasant surprises as well.

 

I was encouraged by MAG's disco of the Euro.  I haven't even thought there was a remote possibility we might see snow from the Sunday event.  At least there is "some" potential, and an event to watch for the next few days.

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Finished with 2.3" in Lebanon County.  I'm sure there was some undercatch in the gauge, but I melted that down to 0.09" liquid for a 25.5:1 ratio.  Considering how light and fluffy it was, probably not far off.

 

Just measured 1.6" on the ground at my office in Bellefonte with some light snow still falling. 

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Ended up with about 2 inches this morning out of our little surprise event. It's nice to see a winter that seems to find a way to make it snow.

 

GFS/Canadian continue to be the furthest west with precip/track for the potential coastal system on Sunday, with the Euro and the NAM (just getting into range of that) a bit more southeast. Todays Euro had less precip than last night over the Sus Valley but is still the coolest model. Lack of preceding cold really sucks, here we have a storm progged to make a great track up the coast for a change and it's quite possible most of us see rain from it. Though I do think there's a good chance we could at least see some kind of a rain to snow scenario given the developing 850 low on the coast. That's what the GFS has for central PA west and northwest of the Sus Valley with all rain elsewhere and also all the way into NE PA. The Euro was much more supportive albeit marginal for the Sus Valley for possibly a mostly or all snow scenario but it also lacked precip. Track, precip intensity, and how rapidly the low deepens is gonna dictate if/where we might see a stripe of accumulating snows. Elevation could play a role as well as mentioned last night.

 

It is a bit interesting to see the European model southeast of the GFS in this situation..esp since all the models started catching this wave pretty late in the game.  Will have to see how things resolve the next couple cycles. 

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1" in New Salem from last night's snow. Funny how everyone flips out over a few snowflakes.

Many areas east of the river received at least 2". That's a bit more than a "few snowflakes" and for most of us it was a bonus snowfall. There have been far more negative than positive surprises when it comes to snow over the years, so excuse us for getting caught up in the rarity of the moment.

You seem to really know your stuff and your insight is much appreciated, but your negative bent on everything snow-related over the past year has really grown tiresome and it detracts a great deal from your knowledge.

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Knowing nothing is set in stone with models, the recurring theme I have seen for the last several runs seems to be a trough setup a little to far west for eastern PA'ers with systems coming up with no cold air to work with or systems going up west of us. Then after the system moves north of us, we go back to the deep freeze. I am hopeful that this will not occur as December surely has started us off on the snowy start. Other indices such as the NAO (looks to stay positive), the PNA (looks to go slightly positive for a bit) and the AO looks to go negative in mid Jan, but that has been modeled before. But perhaps as I saw posted by MAG maybe it will be a winter that will continue to snow even when the models say otherwise. Certainly yesterday's surprise snowfall was a nice bonus. 

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