Storm At Sea Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Indices are suggestive of another East Coast wintry event. What are the odds of this system laying down fresh snow cover just in time for the Christmas Eve? -EPO will likely keep us in the game...check here for the latest discussion as low level cold continues keep hopes alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Indices are suggestive of another East Coast wintry event. What are the odds of this system laying down fresh snow cover just in time for the Christmas Eve? -EPO will likely keep us in the game...check here for the latest discussion as low level cold continues keep hopes alive. GFS keeps on trending south with this storm. Despite the warm 850's on the recent run, the surface temps were cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 GFS keeps on trending south with this storm. Despite the warm 850's on the recent run, the surface temps were cold. Looks like an icestorm signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Looks like an icestorm signature Yes it does. I wonder if the 850's are going to cool in the upcoming days. We have to see if that happens. I sure don't want an icestorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 If my memory serves me right, 850 mb temperatures gradually trended down with this past storm. I just returned home from my GF's today (who lives in Sussex County) and I was amazed to have 3 inches of snow still on the ground in Middlesex County. To have accumulating snow still around after a raging 850 mb SE wind along the coastal plain is pretty exceptional stuff. I highly suspect that the trend will be our friend for this next one. However, i will say that although the EPO will remain negative, we will definitely be on borrowed time as the EPO is gradually going towards a neurtal phase for late month. It's very clear that like the extreme -AO several years ago allowed for MECS, the extreme -EPO has allowed for sustained low level cold along the coastal plain. Yes it does. I wonder if the 850's are going to cool in the upcoming days. We have to see if that happens. I sure don't want an icestorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 If my memory serves me right, 850 mb temperatures gradually trended down with this past storm. I just returned home from my GF's today (who lives in Sussex County) and I was amazed to have 3 inches of snow still on the ground in Middlesex County. To have accumulating snow still around after a raging 850 mb SE wind along the coastal plain is pretty exceptional stuff. I highly suspect that the trend will be our friend for this next one. However, i will say that although the EPO will remain negative, we will definitely be on borrowed time as the EPO is gradually going towards a neurtal phase for late month. It's very clear that like the extreme -AO several years ago allowed for MECS, the extreme -EPO has allowed for sustained low level cold along the coastal plain. Even over here, I still have a small snowpack. I received 3 inches last night. Yes, you are right about the 850's with this last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Euro went way west with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Euro went way west with this storm.What would that translate to? Where did the last Euro run have it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Euro is back to showing what it was showing for several runs prior and that is temps getting into the 50s and 60s..Its essentially a cold front that moves thru the region ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Euro is back to showing what it was showing for several runs prior and that is temps getting into the 50s and 60s..Its essentially a cold front that moves thru the region ... It's skill level that far out is no different than any other model so it's just one solution, a lot of time for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Euro is back to showing what it was showing for several runs prior and that is temps getting into the 50s and 60s..Its essentially a cold front that moves thru the region ... GFS also shows the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I think this 'threat' is dead on arrival. Not looking great for x-mas week, but ya never know, still enough time for something to change I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 This probably won't happen, but the GFS ensembles are completely the opposite of the op. Has no cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Roll up ur sleeves , both the GFS and Euro paint a 60 spot Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Wow how quickly this storm has changed on the models lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Roll up ur sleeves , both the GFS and Euro paint a 60 spot Sun If its not going to snow why not it be warm. Nothing worse than rain in the 30's. doesnt look like much improvement as we head towards 2014 either :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Wow how quickly this storm has changed on the models lol Given the indices, the raging +AO, the EPO breaking down, the MJO going unfavorable, and the consistent +NAO, this solution makes a lot of sense. We might get into the mid and upper 60s if the gfs is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Wow. Major warm up coming just in time for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Wow how quickly this storm has changed on the models lol -EPO relaxing and allowing SEA ridge to flex its muscles temporarily. This storm does not have a chance for us IMO. Im ready to turn my attention towards end of this month/beginning of 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Wow. Major warm up coming just in time for Christmas. Disgusting. Christmas should feature temps in the 20s with snow, not temps in the 40s and 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Wow. Major warm up coming just in time for Christmas. only really Sat - Sun , by Mon nite -the trough is back xmas week below normal , just hope for a xmas clipper only real shot for a white xmas for most . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Disgusting. Christmas should feature temps in the 20s with snow, not temps in the 40s and 50s. Why is it disgusting? Please explain the reasoning for this? Why SHOULD any time of the year feature anything? It's weather, things change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Why is it disgusting? Please explain the reasoning for this? Why SHOULD any time of the year feature anything? It's weather, things change. Snow88 is winter's cheerleader around here. He has a great passion for weather and who doesnt want a nice coating of snow christmas week/christmas? Its something that is sought after for christmas. Most likely wont happen this year unless a miracle happens though but hes just voicing his opinions take it easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Wow how quickly this storm has changed on the models lol You're really that surprised? The one reason we had the snow we've had already is the favorable EPO. When we lose that and keep the NAO positive, we will torch. That's just a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coastalfront Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 You're really that surprised? The one reason we had the snow we've had already is the favorable EPO. When we lose that and keep the NAO positive, we will torch. That's just a given. The relaxation of the -EPO has been welll modeled since early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Why is it disgusting? Please explain the reasoning for this? Why SHOULD any time of the year feature anything? It's weather, things change. When I think of Christmas, I think of snow and cold, not warm and rainy. You're really that surprised? The one reason we had the snow we've had already is the favorable EPO. When we lose that and keep the NAO positive, we will torch. That's just a given. Yes I know but I am just saying how the previous GFS run showed an icestorm and also the Euro run showed something similiar until the recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Disgusting. Christmas should feature temps in the 20s with snow, not temps in the 40s and 50s. Our avg high is in the low 40s on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Why is it disgusting? Please explain the reasoning for this? Why SHOULD any time of the year feature anything? It's weather, things change. If we could only have 10 days of wintry weather all year I think a lot of us would center it around the holidays. As modeled, this event looks like the white Christmas slayer for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Our avg high is in the low 40s on Christmas. More like high 30's I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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