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December 19-20th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

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NAM BUFKIT at YYZ is completely below freezing tomorrow (however, like T4 mentioned, right along the lake may have a few hours above freezing).

Regarding the second part of your post...let's go in order:

1. Ice occurs when temperatures aloft are warm, not cold.

2. You suspected that the precipitation is going to be mostly snow. I don't see any signs of that.

Oh my bad I must have gotten the atmospheric and surface layers mixed up. But yes, I suspected it would be mostly frozen precip and that would be in the form of either snow, ice or freezing rain than liquid (plain rain). Downtown

Toronto may see some rain showers in the afternoon.

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Kind of skeptical on the freezing rain potential over the next 24hrs from MKE south. The GFS would probably gives us decent ice accumulation with its  lower sfc temperatures overnight but looks like its under doing dew points currently, especially with the NE wind off the lake. The NAM and other hires models seem to have a better handle on temps and basically keep us at or above freezing. Areas inland look good however.

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Kind of skeptical on the freezing rain potential over the next 24hrs from MKE south. The GFS would probably gives us decent ice accumulation with its  lower sfc temperatures overnight but looks like its under doing dew points currently, especially with the NE wind off the lake. The NAM and other hires models seem to have a better handle on temps and basically keep us at or above freezing. Areas inland look good however.

 

Going to be very close. 29-30° dewpoints at RAC, ENW, and UGN. I would say within 3 miles of the lake it is up in the air regarding ZR.

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Took quick look at 18z Nam COBB for yyz. Has an initial 0.5-1" of snow tonight before a transition to a long period of ZR throughout the entire day tomorrow. Ends up with ~0.6" of ice... and thats before the main show which models have been consistently showing upwards of 0.6" of ZR.

 

Saw that. And then we have the GFS which is almost all rain (cursory look but I'm fairly confident). I'm going with sfc obs and upper air meso-analysis from the SPC. Fudge the models.

 

YYZ down another 0.2 degree to 1.9c at 5pm.

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Going to be very close. 29-30° dewpoints at RAC, ENW, and UGN. I would say within 3 miles of the lake it is up in the air regarding ZR.

 

Its certainty going to start out as rain, trying to pin-point change over is the difficult part. Friday could be interesting as some slightly colder air filters in and models hinting at light precipitation throughout the day.

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Saw that. And then we have the GFS which is almost all rain (cursory look but I'm fairly confident). I'm going with sfc obs and upper air meso-analysis from the SPC. Fudge the models.

 

YYZ down another 0.2 degree to 1.9c at 5pm.

Agree. Thinks that makes the most sense now along with HRRR guidance. The short range GFS was really bad with last weeks snowstorm... was consistently showing less then 10cm for YYZ. Currently 35f imby, which is pretty consistent with YYZ OBS. Humidity just above 70%.

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HRRR/RAP pretty consistent with a change over to PL/ZR between 10-13z if you live along the 401 in the GTA. Not sure how long the ZR lasts as its out of model range ATM.

 

 

Toronto snow removal department has decided not to salt/brine the roads pre-storm because of "too much forecast uncertainty". They are going to regret that decision.

 

They didnt even clean my street during the snowstorm last week..-_- Usually they do. Did they already maximize their budget, lol.  

 

One thing that needs to be watched is how much low level cold air can work into the precip bands once they move in. Currently temperatures are just a degree above freezing and we didn't see the Sun today. With that being said, daytime heating wasn't a factor today and perhaps the snow-cover will retain the cool temperatures just above the surface. I think regions near the 401 and North could be in for some decent icing tomorrow. Should start off as snow tonight and will switch back over to snow tomorrow night as temperatures cool. 

 

Its a risky set-up. 

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They didnt even clean my street during the snowstorm last week..-_- Usually they do. Did they already maximize their budget, lol.  

 

One thing that needs to be watched is how much low level cold air can work into the precip bands once they move in. Currently temperatures are just a degree above freezing and we didn't see the Sun today. With that being said, daytime heating wasn't a factor today and perhaps the snow-cover will retain the cool temperatures just above the surface. I think regions near the 401 and North could be in for some decent icing tomorrow. Should start off as snow tonight and will switch back over to snow tomorrow night as temperatures cool. 

 

Its a risky set-up. 

 

Of course they didn't. You don't live in Toronto. :lol:

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