snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 South of 401, lol. Theirs a better chance for snow north of 401. Temperatures are marginal. Its around freezing north of 401 too. Wet snow? Remember i dont have access to the raw data. ToBlizzard does. My friend emails me the ECMWF images when they update cause he's doing meteorology in Uni, lol. I live right south of the 401.Guess we'll see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I live right south of the 401.Guess we'll see how it goes. Depends how far south you live. If anything we may see some CAD in the picture as the models are underplaying the low level cold air from the HP to the north and the snowpack. I think 5cm is a good bet for most of the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Depends how far south you live. If anything we may see some CAD in the picture as the models are underplaying the low level cold air from the HP to the north and the snowpack. I think 5cm is a good bet for most of the GTA. Just checked out temps on wunderground. All of the GTA is below freezing for round 1B on Friday night into Saturday. Could be some decent accums then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Like hell LOL!!!! Dont know about Toronto, but winters of this decade were WAY snowier than the 1940s-50s. LOL, well for Toronto I found no real differences. The 1940s and 50's were warmer though. The 80s and 90s featured some really crappy Winters. How were the snowfall amounts per winter in the 40s and 50s down your way? Just checked out temps on wunderground. All of the GTA is below freezing for round 1B on Friday night into Saturday. Could be some decent accums then. Interesting. Just as i suspected. The GGEM is the only model of the three that shows mostly rain with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Cooled off more than it was supposed to last night. 27°. 34° predicted during the day and 29° tonight with freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The 12z GGEM and 12z NAM all indicate ice pellets and snow with this wave for the GTA now. Talk about consistency -_-. Still the risk of rain mixing in with snow along the immediate lake shore IMO. Elsewhere, I suspect around 5-15cm generally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Lol, EURO giving me 2" through Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 wxbell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 EURO still looking good for the GTA with Snow mixed in with ice pellets. A general 8-15cm is possible tomorrow through Saturday morning. FRI 06Z 20-DEC -0.1 -1.8 1016 98 97 0.05 553 541 FRI 12Z 20-DEC 0.9 1.2 1012 97 98 0.09 553 543 FRI 18Z 20-DEC 1.4 0.7 1011 97 98 0.16 553 545 SAT 00Z 21-DEC -0.1 1.5 1011 96 86 0.19 554 545 SAT 06Z 21-DEC -1.1 4.4 1010 95 87 0.16 554 546 SAT 12Z 21-DEC -2.4 0.7 1014 91 48 0.03 555 544 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 Lol, EURO giving me 2" through Saturday. euro1.jpg No...It's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 EURO still looking good for the GTA with Snow mixed in with ice pellets. A general 8-15cm is possible tomorrow through Saturday morning. FRI 06Z 20-DEC -0.1 -1.8 1016 98 97 0.05 553 541 FRI 12Z 20-DEC 0.9 1.2 1012 97 98 0.09 553 543 FRI 18Z 20-DEC 1.4 0.7 1011 97 98 0.16 553 545 SAT 00Z 21-DEC -0.1 1.5 1011 96 86 0.19 554 545 SAT 06Z 21-DEC -1.1 4.4 1010 95 87 0.16 554 546 SAT 12Z 21-DEC -2.4 0.7 1014 91 48 0.03 555 544 How do you get 8-15cm from those numbers? My call is for perhaps an 1" overnight while temps aloft can support snow. Maybe 2" north of Highway 7. And then a mixed bag of fun after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Map showing 3.1" for MBY. yea ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 How do you get 8-15cm from those numbers? My call is for perhaps an 1" overnight while temps aloft can support snow. Maybe 2" north of Highway 7. And then a mixed bag of fun after that. Hmm seems reasonable. Must be the weenie inside of me unleashing, haha. Temperatures are marginal once again. It'll be interesting to see what the final outcome will be by Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Hmm seems reasonable. Must be the weenie inside of me unleashing, haha. Temperatures are marginal once again. It'll be interesting to see what the final outcome will be by Saturday morning. So are you retracting your 8-15cm amount? I wasn't criticizing, I'm just curious as to how you derived it. You posted it with that EURO extract so it gave me the impression there was some sort of relation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Yeah geos, that is probably mostly sleet or freezing rain, maybe a touch of rain at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 So are you retracting your 8-15cm amount? I wasn't criticizing, I'm just curious as to how you derived it. You posted it with that EURO extract so it gave me the impression there was some sort of relation. I think the models are underplaying the CAD from the HP to the north which may aide in dropping the temperatures at 850mb. The temperatures currently maybe above zero but its a cloudy day. As the storm comes in tomorrow, the daytime heating will have escaped and we can get a nice cool wind from the NE/N. The snow-cover should stabilize temperatures enough for more snow to fall. Thats my 2 cents But the possibility is their for more ice than snow/rain. Were still seeing 2-3 different possible outcomes for this event. There is no definite conclusion yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 wxbell! No...It's not. I'm just pointing out that it is showing snow. Didn't say I believed the map. If I do get that much snow, I'll ship some down to you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 dtx issued a winter weather advisory for i69 and northward for tonight into friday morning. 2-4 inches of snow expected into the thumb with an inch of snow closer to i69 and 0.10" of ice possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 SEVERE WEATHER BULLETINISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:35 PM EST THURSDAY 19 DECEMBER 2013. --------------------------------------------------------------------- WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO... FREEZING RAIN WARNING FOR: =NEW= CITY OF TORONTO =NEW= CITY OF HAMILTON =NEW= HALTON - PEEL =NEW= YORK - DURHAM =NEW= HURON - PERTH =NEW= WATERLOO - WELLINGTON =NEW= ORANGEVILLE - GRAND VALLEY - SOUTHERN DUFFERIN COUNTY =NEW= BELLEVILLE - QUINTE - NORTHUMBERLAND =NEW= KINGSTON - PRINCE EDWARD. PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== A DISTURBANCE FROM TEXAS WILL CAUSE A BAND OF FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGIONS EARLY FRIDAY. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN NEAR THE SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING. ICE ACCRETION OF UP TO 5 MM CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOME PLACES. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS AT TIMES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY EVENING AND END SATURDAY MORNING. POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE REGIONS FROM EARLY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A SECOND AND STRONGER SYSTEM COULD BRING AN ICE STORM TO THE REGIONS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I think the models are underplaying the CAD from the HP to the north which may aide in dropping the temperatures at 850mb. The temperatures currently maybe above zero but its a cloudy day. As the storm comes in tomorrow, the daytime heating will have escaped and we can get a nice cool wind from the NE/N. The snow-cover should stabilize temperatures enough for more snow to fall. Thats my 2 cents But the possibility is their for more ice than snow/rain. Were still seeing 2-3 different possible outcomes for this event. There is no definite conclusion yet. NAM now cooling thinks off much quicker for tomorrow at the surface. Shows almost an 1" of QPF just from event one. Could be a decent ice storm by itself if about 1/2 - 2/3 of that QPF falls as ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 NAM now cooling thinks off much quicker for tomorrow at the surface. Shows almost an 1" of QPF just from event one. Could be a decent ice storm by itself if about 1/2 - 2/3 of that QPF falls as ice. I just saw the 18z 4k NAM run and surface temperatures are below freezing most of the day tomorrow, except for a few hours tomorrow morning by the lakeshore. What a dramatic turn of events in the last 24-48 hours. As I said in the other storm thread, I think the same (trending colder in the thermals) will happen to the weekend storm as more sampling of the northern piece of energy takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 NAM now cooling thinks off much quicker for tomorrow at the surface. Shows almost an 1" of QPF just from event one. Could be a decent ice storm by itself if about 1/2 - 2/3 of that QPF falls as ice. Did you run BUFKIT on the latest Nam? As I suspected temperatures aloft will be cold enough for most if not all of the precip to fall as ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 CBC tweet and Dave Patrick have YKF at 20 mm tomorrow. EC say 5 mm in the warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Did you run BUFKIT on the latest Nam? As I suspected temperatures aloft will be cold enough for most if not all of the precip to fall as ice. NAM BUFKIT at YYZ is completely below freezing tomorrow (however, like T4 mentioned, right along the lake may have a few hours above freezing). Regarding the second part of your post...let's go in order: 1. Ice occurs when temperatures aloft are warm, not cold. 2. You suspected that the precipitation is going to be mostly snow. I don't see any signs of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 33°/29° here drizzle returns showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 CBC tweet and Dave Patrick have YKF at 20 mm tomorrow. EC say 5 mm in the warning? QPF to ice is not a 1:1 ratio. Some of it is lost to runoff. However, 5 mm does seem rather paltry. The RGEM, which is what they're likely basing the warning on, had more mixture with plain rain iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 CBC tweet and Dave Patrick have YKF at 20 mm tomorrow. EC say 5 mm in the warning? Saw that as well. 20mm would be more ice than the April event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Saw that as well. 20mm would be more ice than the April event. Which was damaging enough for Waterloo Region. The city lost power for days. If we are at risk of a repeat of the April storm followed by a larger one a day later... Slightly confused though. Basically want to ask a yes or no question: is 20mm of ice tomorrow a real possibility or is this just one model, or persons, interpretation without factoring in multiple variables? Seems rather bold to make this claim to the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Which was damaging enough for Waterloo Region. The city lost power for days. If we are at risk of a repeat of the April storm followed by a larger one a day later... Slightly confused though. Basically want to ask a yes or no question: is 20mm of ice tomorrow a real possibility or is this just one model, or persons, interpretation without factoring in multiple variables? Seems rather bold to make this claim to the public. Honestly not sure, don't have BUFKIT right now but that could reveal where that calculation is coming from. Maybe an in-house model error? If that's coming off the RGEM, it doesn't have more than 7.5mm anywhere around there for the next 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 GFS now warmer for tomorrow. I'm fed up with these models. Nowcasting time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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