Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 1-4 for Trenton area, I think. I've been wrong before I'm thinking 2-3", with the lower end being more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Euro output has me thinking low end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 Thinking up to 2" here in central Bucks County PA...less south and 1-3" north of there with isolated 4" lollis. Essentially keeping the same call from the other day, nothing has changed to cause me to change this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 1-4 for Trenton area, I think. I've been wrong before That's kind of a big range isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 That's kind of a big range isn't it? Clippers can be cruel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Clippers are radical. Have seen many 1-3" and 2-4" predictions bust with a coating or flurries over the years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 18 NAM is fairly juicy .25-.50. But it is the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I'm thinking the precip on the radar out in Illinois and Indiana looks like slow motion of a foot coming down to kick a ball. Hope we don't get toed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 That's kind of a big range isn't it? Never understand this thinking... its the same range as 3-6 and 5-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Never understand this thinking... its the same range as 3-6 and 5-8. And, as we love to say, it is a clipper after all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 GFS really focused on 2nd batch, that is trending much stronger, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I'm sticking with my original predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I remember Glenn "Hurricane " Schwartz being hard on himself for missing this in his forecast... I remember the only met on air who called this was Robby G. I remember his words in his blog saying "A mini storm is basically going to form over the phl metro area in the next few hours" and then I had 9" at my house. What a night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I remember the only met on air who called this was Robby G. I remember his words in his blog saying "A mini storm is basically going to form over the phl metro area in the next few hours" and then I had 9" at my house. What a night. Yup, I remember him calling it too. Guarino was hard on Glenn not seeing the norlun trough, he should have cut Glenn some slack out of respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Yup, I remember him calling it too. Guarino was hard on Glenn not seeing the norlun trough, he should have cut Glenn some slack out of respect. True but I will also say that at NBC10 there are also a lot of "arm wrenching" patting one's self on the back promos ie "we were the first ones to tell you"....that can get pretty old/tiring pretty quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 ^ Yeah those are a bit annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 ^ Yeah those are a bit annoying.Modesty breeds respect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Channel 6 does that a lot too. They probably all do whatever back-patting they can to try to boost ratings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Models are starting to show that it might be the midday blast that gives us the heaviest burse of precip and not the early morning rush. Almost looks like 3 waves now, even though it'll be light should be interesting to see what happens. For such a short term forecast the models are actually having a tough time with this. Hi-Res NAM showing heavier burst of precip between 12-3. It looks like the night time wave might be too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 GFS once again focusing more on the night time wave as the main vort swings by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Never understand this thinking... its the same range as 3-6 and 5-8. Yeah same ranges but in terms of impact, 1" is quite a bit different than 4", whereas 3-6 and 5-8 generally have pretty similar impacts. 1" is very nuisance while once you get to 3,4", I consider that plowable and much more hazardous to travel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Yeah same ranges but in terms of impact, 1" is quite a bit different than 4", whereas 3-6 and 5-8 generally have pretty similar impacts. 1" is very nuisance while once you get to 3,4", I consider that plowable and much more hazardous to travel. Also not true. 1 inch at the wrong time can be a HUGE problem. Say, the middle of rush hour. Meanwhile, 4" in the middle of the night, not such a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Yeah same ranges but in terms of impact, 1" is quite a bit different than 4", whereas 3-6 and 5-8 generally have pretty similar impacts. 1" is very nuisance while once you get to 3,4", I consider that plowable and much more hazardous to travel.Much greater differential percentage wise as we'll (1-4" as compared to 5-8") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Much greater differential percentage wise as we'll (1-4" as compared to 5-8") But again, 1" during rush hour = BIG DEAL 4" in the middle of the night = NOT A BIG DEAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 But again, 1" during rush hour = BIG DEAL 4" in the middle of the night = NOT A BIG DEAL True, though 4" during rush hour = MUCH bigger deal...And... 1" middle of the night = MUCH less a deal... No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 From what I can tell, the HRRR really hits the NYC area hard And philly area?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 True, though 4" during rush hour = MUCH bigger deal... And... 1" middle of the night = MUCH less a deal... No? 1" or 4" in the middle of the night, its not much difference. 1" can be as bad as 4" during rush hour depending on those 1" or 4". If the 1" sticks to the road, but the 4" mostly melts on the road, then the 1" actually might be far worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Bleh, RGEM and RAP too far north, latest trends look like coating to 1" type event for the whole region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 1" or 4" in the middle of the night, its not much difference. 1" can be as bad as 4" during rush hour depending on those 1" or 4". If the 1" sticks to the road, but the 4" mostly melts on the road, then the 1" actually might be far worse. Ray il even go to say 1/2 inch can cause huge problems especially on I-81 and the turnpike. As long as it's snowing and it sticks at rush hour, you're in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 And philly area?! From what I saw in the NYC forum the HHHR looked like rain at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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