DiehardFF Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 NAM wants to give PHL around 5" of snow, if not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 NAM wants to give PHL around 5" of snow, if not more. Clipper looking good: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 That one will essentially die out. The one which may bring snow is still in Canada. Clipper looking good: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 That one will essentially die out. The one which may bring snow is still in Canada. Clipper looking good: I notice at 500mb a lot of energy screaming thru...these disturbances should make for a fun 24-36 hours ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 NAM wants to give PHL around 5" of snow, if not more. 0.26" of qpf over 27 hours does NOT equal 5" of snow. Not in the least. What on earth are you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 0.26" of qpf over 27 hours does NOT equal 5" of snow. Not in the least. What on earth are you looking at? I show .4QPF on the 10KM NAM... 4KM looks less then that. You will have higher ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I notice at 500mb a lot of energy screaming thru...these disturbances should make for a fun 24-36 hours ! The 2nd vort, looks to be getting stronger on the models. I think we do not have a final solution yet but getting closer. Its nice having 15:1 or even 17:1 ratios... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I know they're really hard to pinpoint, especially this far out, but the NAM (which is probably the best model to use for this type of thing), is showing what I believe to be a norlun trough forming as the 2nd vort swings by. Late Tuesday night. what is a norlun trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yes agree nor Lon trough last time we had that Feb 2005 media Delaware county got 7.3 inches airport like 11 seweedesboro got 13 lightening too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I show .4QPF on the 10KM NAM... 4KM looks less then that. You will have higher ratios. Still, even 0.4". Over 27 hours??? That will not equate to 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 what is a norlun trough? Check this link and the other links within: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38400-norlun-troughs/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yes agree nor Lon trough last time we had that Feb 2005 media Delaware county got 7.3 inches airport like 11 seweedesboro got 13 lightening too Wasn't that 2009? Or is this some completely different event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Think it was 2005 Bolaris was on Fox calling for light snow to end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Think it was 2005 Bolaris was on Fox calling for light snow to end Bolaris didn't go to Fox til 2008... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Bolaris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 yep here it is Feb 3rd and 4th 2009 Nor Lun Trough results http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/storms/02042009.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Wasn't that 2009? Or is this some completely different event? Feb. 3, 2009 was considered a norlun event, at least in this discussion: http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/189286-lancaster-pa-heavy-snowfall/ Some pictures in Princeton area: http://www.wunderground.com/wximage/appledust36/183?gallery= http://www.wunderground.com/wximage/appledust36/187?gallery= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 This is bullish but what the heck that's a very convenient map for your backyard. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 yep here it is Feb 3rd and 4th 2009 Nor Lun Trough results http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/storms/02042009.html I remember Glenn "Hurricane " Schwartz being hard on himself for missing this in his forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 that's a very convenient map for your backyard. lol. Yours too, but not if latest RGEM has its way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yours too, but not if latest RGEM has its way. by hook or by crook, monmouth county always has more than my location. it's uncanny. of course in this case, we're all well aware of the shortcomings of typical clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The Euro barely has anything south of the turnpike. 1-2" in the NW burbs, 2-3" for the Lehigh Valley and Poconos. Over half the snow is from the evening wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I think 2"-4" is a good call. Looks like .25 is a good QPF starting point. Get in on that fluffy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Mt. Holly just updated. In-line with my thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Hi Greg, Actually Wxsim only forecasts temps and precip water equiv - it uses a straight 10:1 for snow so the Wxsim simply shows a GFS/NAM blend based on what those models are forecasting for precip....I then take the water equiv and do a calculation of potential ratios depending on the temps - if it busts (and it does from time to time) it is usually on the precip totals (as an example it went from 0.29" yesterday to just 0.19" (so 2"-4"today as we get closer to the event. I noticed with the last one it was actually printing out more snow accumulating despite boundary layer forecast temps above frz.....The interesting thing is the programmer added a learning routine in the last couple months - it actually learns from it's mistakes and makes adjustments on future forecasts.....so maybe it will get even better. It really helps with start/stop times but it is a slave to those models With all due respect to Paul, after following WxSim for a few years it appears that regarding final amounts, a formula of WxSim totals x .5 will put you in the ball park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Wxsim with 6z data shows light snow with 1st wave arriving around 330am temp 13.9mainly periods of light snow with somewhat moderate around 930am - total liquid equiv from 1st wave 0.19" so with high ratios probably 2.5" to 4.0" (high temp during snow 24.5)2nd wave looks very light with only .02" of liquid from around 10pm thru midnight so maybe another 0.3" of snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 coating to 1" with lucky loli's of 2" is my call for SEPA and 2-3" lehigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Anyone know what EURO did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 ECM is mood flakes to 1" if you are extra lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Mt.Holly. 000WWUS41 KPHI 161956WSWPHIURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ256 PM EST MON DEC 16 2013...WINTERS EMPHATIC DECEMBER START WITH BELOW NORMAL COLD ANDFREQUENT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE WITH A QUICK HITTING SNOW EVENTTUESDAY MORNING....HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL DEVELOP DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTEAS LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REFORMS SOUTH OF LONGISLAND ON TUESDAY.NJZ001-007>009-PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105-170930-/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0025.131217T1000Z-131217T2000Z/SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...CHALFONT...PERKASIE256 PM EST MON DEC 16 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM ESTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 3 PMEST TUESDAY.* LOCATIONS...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA FROM WEST OF PHILADELPHIANORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS INTO NORTHWESTNEW JERSEY.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TWO TO 4 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW WILL FALLDURING A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD BEGINNING AROUND 5 AM. THE SNOWWILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM.* WINDS...WILL BE LIGHT.* TEMPERATURES...WILL ONLY RISE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 DEGREES ASTHE SNOW ENDS DURING MIDDAY OR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.* IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S DURINGTHE MORNING COMMUTE WITH SNOW CREATING VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONSON ALL UNTREATED SURFACES. PLAN ON MORNING TRAVEL DELAYS ANDLEAVE EARLIER TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION ON TIME. TRAVEL CONDITIONSSHOULD IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW TAPERSOFF.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...ORFREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING.&&$NJZ010-012>015-018>020-027-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-170930-/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0025.131217T1100Z-131217T2100Z/SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN256 PM EST MON DEC 16 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM ESTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PMEST TUESDAY.* LOCATIONS...NEAR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM PHILADELPHIAAND ITS NEARBY SUBURBS TO NEW BRUNSWICK NEW JERSEY INCLUSIVE OFALL OF CENTRAL NEW JERSEY TO THE COAST.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED DURINGTHE MORNING. LEFTOVER ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE DURINGTHE AFTERNOON IN EAST CENTRAL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST NEWJERSEY... PARTICULARLY MIDDLESEX AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED3 OR 4 INCH STORM TOTALS MAY OCCUR.* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 5 AM AND 7 AM AND END FROMWEST TO EAST BETWEEN 1 PM AND 4 PM.* WINDS...WILL BE LIGHT.* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE WITHTEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. ALL UNTREATEDSURFACES WILL BE SLIPPERY AND HAZARDOUS. PLAN ON MORNING TRAVELDELAYS AND LEAVE EARLIER TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION ON TIME.TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY AFTERNOONAS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF AND TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...ORFREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING.&&$DRAG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 1-4 for Trenton area, I think. I've been wrong before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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