Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Most guidance has a period or two of light snow or a mix for the region with possible light accumulations. Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 0z UKMET has an impressive 2-4" swath between the Lehigh Valley and Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 GGEM showing 5 - 8mm liquid equivalent area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 If I had to make a call now I'd go coating to 2 inches for TTN. That seems to be consensus. Temps there seem cold enough to support mainly snow. Of course, always gotta watch clippers, they don't like to produce much snow south of the low track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 The 6z GFS/NAM run in Wxsim has snow arriving in NW Chesco at 4am Tuesday with the temp at 9.6 snow will end by 930am with 1.5" of snow...but then redevelops snow again that evening at around 7pm with another 0.5" falling before ending by 9pm or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Already had about 11-12 inches in three events within six days. I went two years from seeing snow, as last year we officially had a day of flurries here. Thus, anything we can wring out of a clipper, some with decent qpf, is welcome, to keep the snow train coming. Last evening was treacherous on the road, North, South, East and West. I am concerned at first with the safety of our members. I want snow, but hope everyone is always safe inside, and fully respect those whose day/night jobs, put them in harm's way in bad weather. Anyway, this system and what it will do has a predictability above the usual suspects, and therefor will be fully understood by this time tomorrow. but personally, I'm looking longer range now for something juicier on and under the Christmas trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 12z GFS is impressive. 2-4" Tuesday morning, then another inch or so at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 12z GFS is impressive. 2-4" Tuesday morning, then another inch or so at night. That's a complex shortwave. Wonder whether the individual vortmaxes roll through like the GFS shows or whether it'll be more like the NAM and have it a little more cohesive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Track is paramount with clippers need to be at it's latitude or north. ECM has been north indicating little snow south of lehigh valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 RGEM is furthest south of the model suites tracks the low south of the mason dixon with 2-4" wilmington north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Too bad it can't stay cold afterward so we can keep the snowpack at least until Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Too bad it can't stay cold afterward so we can keep the snowpack at least until Christmas. we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 12z GFS is impressive. 2-4" Tuesday morning, then another inch or so at night. Is this specific to your area or general philly area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Wxsim with 12z data trending stronger now has a total of 4" to 6" for NW Chester County depending on ratios somewhere between 15 and 18 to 1. Total precip is 0.29" appears to be almost 2 different waves one early AM with temps in low teens and again in the evening with temps close to 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 ECM with two weak waves of precip not much coating to 1" SEPA and 1-2" lehigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Wxsim with 12z data trending stronger now has a total of 4" to 6" for NW Chester County depending on ratios somewhere between 15 and 18 to 1. Total precip is 0.29" appears to be almost 2 different waves one early AM with temps in low teens and again in the evening with temps close to 20. While I like the sound of it, I hope your not suggesting that would happen. 4-6" from a clipper is extremely unlikely in the piedmont regions. the best locations to our northwest would be lucky to get those accums as you need to be north of the track of the low for best qpf. with clippers. I'd so love to be proven wrong, but in our location, i think it quite a stretch. glad to see yet another threat to track in what has been a most enjoyable start to this young winter season. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Is this specific to your area or general philly area.General Philly area, excluding SE NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 General Philly area, excluding SE NJ. Thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 NWS HWO: AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EVENT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY MONDAYNIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AREPOSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastBravest Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 NWS snow map <1 South Jersey 1-2 Central 2-4 Northern areas. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Too bad it can't stay cold afterward so we can keep the snowpack at least until Christmas. It looks a bit toasty later this week. Wish for a nice cold clipper on the 24th, and something big a few days after. . . Meanwhile, I'll take this one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 Looking like periods of light snow or even a mix south with light accumulations starting late monday night lasting thru tuesday pm. Early thinking I would guess up to an inch south of Philly...1-3" northern burbs...2-4" lehigh valley and poconos. Seems like a rather light event before we torch later this week which is fine to clear the snow/ice piles. Hopefully we settle back into this type of active pattern around Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Nice blend here amongst the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 This is bullish but what the heck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 Knock on wood, this should be a rather basic forecast....much easier to predict than the past few imho. Seems everyone is on the same page for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 If the coastal develops earlier than expected, I think some parts of northern NJ could approach 5-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 I'm speaking in terms of the phl area :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Knock on wood, this should be a rather basic forecast....much easier to predict than the past few imho. Seems everyone is on the same page for the most part.If one wasn't resigned to being a model reader and could pick up on the modeled essentials, the last storm was rather easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 While I like the sound of it, I hope your not suggesting that would happen. 4-6" from a clipper is extremely unlikely in the piedmont regions. the best locations to our northwest would be lucky to get those accums as you need to be north of the track of the low for best qpf. with clippers. I'd so love to be proven wrong, but in our location, i think it quite a stretch. glad to see yet another threat to track in what has been a most enjoyable start to this young winter season. Nut With all due respect to Paul, after following WxSim for a few years it appears that regarding final amounts, a formula of WxSim totals x .5 will put you in the ball park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I know they're really hard to pinpoint, especially this far out, but the NAM (which is probably the best model to use for this type of thing), is showing what I believe to be a norlun trough forming as the 2nd vort swings by. Late Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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