N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 SREFs toned it back a bit but still decent for a lot of us. Sref's are as useful as my grandma in a bar fight Lets hope 0z nam is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 0z NAM may be going south again. ??? More like a slower solution. I think maybe we're losing that lead s/w or at least it's delayed? they're all hand-in-hand imo. Upstream ridging better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I wouldn't be surprised to see a much more amped solution, one that favors the NAM track over the GFS track. This is going to be a vigorous trough with two embedded shortwaves in which tilt the trough negatively. This has over achiever in many ways written all over it. A stronger surface low and 850mb low the better inflow from the Atlantic. The trough's first disturbance is centered over Saskatchewan, Canada right now and is beginning to dive southeastward, it is quite vigorous currently. I'm in Buffalo, NY for my grandfather's funeral, and hopefully make it home on tuesday ahead of the storm. Its supposed to start snowing here in BUF around 18z Monday, 1-2" expected here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Thanks for the map, Paul. I don't recall you posted accum maps in the past--good to have your thoughts on these. If I'm able to get in access of 2", I'll consider this a positive bust. I Usually I'll post maps in a separate thread so the thread won't be derailed by getting clogged with questions and such. Typically I wouldn't be so bullish with a clipper but the air mass in place will give great ratios and as mentioned I really like the lift associated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 they're all hand-in-hand imo. Upstream ridging better. Maybe more like the Euro etc..later focus. Definitely delaying the system a little in terms of development this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 NAM looks meh. Too much interference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 First one went flat. Let's see what happens as the energy approaches the coast. Maybe the northern tracks are out the window now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Development vs the earlier run was a little delayed and it's definitely south which makes sense given the rest of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 nam is definitely south. looks good to me, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It's so cold that any moisture thrown into this airmass is efficiently converted to snow, so that is good. Second s/w looks interesting to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Wow, second s/w FTW. That dug sharply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 nam is definitely south. looks good to me, That's a nice hit for you on the nam! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 the second piece of energy is really strong. this looks like the euro, taking the first shortwave north and then really digging the 2nd one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Whoa. Nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 the second piece of energy is really strong. this looks like the euro, taking the first shortwave north and then really digging the 2nd one Yeah that dug nicely. At first I thought it may be strung out..but it dug down nicely. I think we need to cheer for that....I actually could see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Whoa. Nice hit. Very nice... I like watching these kinds of storms especially when the airmass is so cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 nice flow at 850mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It's so cold that any moisture thrown into this airmass is efficiently converted to snow, so that is good. Second s/w looks interesting to me. Question on that 2nd s/w I know in the summer months sometimes when we have two s/w like that we get s/w subsidence and it kills storm threat later on. Does that apply in these situations as well? I was thinking it doesn't so that had my interest b/c it could help to kengthen precip over the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Nice, been a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 the second piece of energy is really strong. this looks like the euro, taking the first shortwave north and then really digging the 2nd one Yeah...like the Euro. Good stuff....think we're in good shape you and I, not worried about the warmth now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 nam is borderline warning criteria snows for most of E MA...probably advisory snows elsewhere too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 nam is borderline warning criteria snows for most of E MA...probably advisory snows elsewhere too Phil let's hope the NAM is behind the curve and the follow up 0z models show even more development as the trailing s/w dumps in. Nice setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Question on that 2nd s/w I know in the summer months sometimes when we have two s/w like that we get s/w subsidence and it kills storm threat later on. Does that apply in these situations as well? I was thinking it doesn't so that had my interest b/c it could help to kengthen precip over the region. Well when you have s/w interference..many times what happens is that the first s/w utilizes the avialable baroclinic energy and forms a low. Even if it's a weak low...byt the time the second s/w comes around..many times that baroclinic zone is kicked off to the east so you are left with an inv trough or not much at all. In this case, the first s/w weakens and the second one digs. Plenty of juice aviable for the low now with the second s/w thanks to a weaker first s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I think if the second shortwave becomes the dominant one and the front end vigorous wave currently in central Canada doesn't do much than I could see this becoming a serious snowstorm threat, but lets see how other guidance treats this wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Nice...0.5 line inside 495 and east in MA and eastern RI. Verbatim nam is 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 That is the definition of a fluff job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Well when you have s/w interference..many times what happens is that the first s/w utilizes the avialable baroclinic energy and forms a low. Even if it's a weak low...byt the time the second s/w comes around..many times that baroclinic zone is kicked off to the east so you are left with an inv trough or not much at all. In this case, the first s/w weakens and the second one digs. Plenty of juice aviable for the low now with the second s/w thanks to a weaker first s/w. Oh wow thanks! I was never really able to understand this process but now I do! This is really a fantastic explanation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 00z NAM radar simulation shows a nice comma head hitting eastern MA and RI, could see some very heavy snow for a 6 hour period, or longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 A little slower than the other guidance, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Verbatim, many in this area would see higher impact from this than yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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