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December 17th Clipper Discussion


ORH_wxman

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yeah it should later today

Amazing how these storms can push this very cold arctic air right out of the way along the coastal plain.  The Atlantic giveth, the Atlantic taketh away…  I'm interested to see if I make it to 3" in Bristol.  Made it to 4.5" during the last storm before the switch to sleet and rain.

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hrrr still mirrors some of the runs that had the nice area of snow right along the CT coast...a very narrow band of 3-5"...probably thanks to strong low level temp gradient / convergence that'll set up there. that might be another area to watch for something overperforming

 

Holla! I'll keep you posted...but my expectations are maybe 2" additional snowfall at this point.

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hrrr still mirrors some of the runs that had the nice area of snow right along the CT coast...a very narrow band of 3-5"...probably thanks to strong low level temp gradient / convergence that'll set up there. that might be another area to watch for something overperforming

 

 

here's my hope for tonight...most of this year the s/w's have trended stronger. If we can get the last one to wind up a smidge better this band ends up over you or maybe even me.

post-3232-0-62918200-1387302910_thumb.gi

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also what is that crap in KY and Southern WV ...it really training/dumping in the mountain of S west Virginia is that with second S.W ?

 

the reason I ask is I wonder it has a "feed" into that stuff developing SE of Allentown ...

 

on radar you can see it sort of stream across S-C WV and into S-Cent. VA and then ENE into Baltimore and se toward Dover, DE

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One other thing that interests me with the models....

 

The Euro later tonight into early morning has -4 to -6ish air at 8h running over the mild water...NNE become NNW flow that's pretty well aligned down to the surface.  There could be a nice band of snow under that particularly if we could ever get the 8h to close off a smidge earlier and get some moisture in from the SW.

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One other thing that interests me with the models....

 

The Euro later tonight into early morning has -4 to -6ish air at 8h running over the mild water...NNE become NNW flow that's pretty well aligned down to the surface.  There could be a nice band of snow under that particularly if we could ever get the 8h to close off a smidge earlier and get some moisture in from the SW.

Winston you see that feed from KY across WV across VA into SE DE

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WPC Model Dico. minus 12z Euro.

 

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1155 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2013VALID DEC 17/1200 UTC THRU DEC 21/0000 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST......AN EVALUATION OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS ALONG WITH PRELIMINARYPREFERENCES/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 12ZNAM/GFS DEEMED SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT THEIR FORECASTS....UPPER TROF BECOMING NEGATIVELY-TILTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BYEARLY WEDNESDAY......RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING JUST OFFSHORE OF NEWENGLAND...PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET...WEIGHTEDMORE HEAVILY TOWARD THE ECMWFFORECAST CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGEA LONGWAVE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ISFORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE EVENTUALLY BECOMINGNEGATIVELY-TILTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY 18/1200Z. AS THISOCCURS...A SURFACE WAVE WHICH WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM LONGISLAND IS EXPECTED TO RAPID STRENGTHEN AS IT CROSSES COASTAL UPPERNEW ENGLAND AND INTO NOVA SCOTIA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANALYZINGTHE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THEPLACEMENT OF THE MULTIPLE VORT MAXIMA TRACKING WITHIN THE BROADERSCALE UPPER TROF. THIS BECOMES EVIDENT BY AS EARLY AS 12 HOURSINTO THE FORECAST WITH THE IMPACTS EVENTUALLY AFFECTING THE TRACKOF THE SURFACE LOW. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCEWITH THIS DEEPENING LOW CENTER IS ITS PRESSURE WITH THE 12ZNAM/GFS AND 06Z GEFS/09Z SREF MEANS. CONSIDERING THE INDIVIDUALMODEL TRENDS...A MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE HAS GONE TO A WEAKERSURFACE SOLUTION RELATIVE TO THEIR PREVIOUS CYCLE. WITH THAT INMIND...WILL LEAN TOWARD A SOMEWHAT MORE CONSERVATIVE SOLUTIONWHICH WOULD BE MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET. ALITTLE MORE WEIGHTING WILL BE GIVEN TO THE ECMWF AS PREFER ITSHANDLING OVER THE GULF OF THE ST. LAWRENCE.
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