dryslot Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 ok with me. Need to get the snow stiffened up a bit before talking the sleds on the trails. Yes, This would do it, I'm not busting up a-arms in this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Phil if we can get that band that is forming to camp out over the cape tonight you may get dumped on. Looks to me like it may scrape out east of you but it's also starting to bend back near dca right now. it'll be too warm by then i think, regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 There might be temp issues at the south coast. There are some reports of mid 30's with rain down on Long Island. Wondering if that moves up into S CT/S RI/SE MA... yeah it should later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Hrrr is totally missing most of the band setting nj thru dc. Greatly underdone. Will have to see how that develops for se areas later At least thru the 14z...the 15z started to catch on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 those heavier echoes are due to bright banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 yeah it should later today Amazing how these storms can push this very cold arctic air right out of the way along the coastal plain. The Atlantic giveth, the Atlantic taketh away… I'm interested to see if I make it to 3" in Bristol. Made it to 4.5" during the last storm before the switch to sleet and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 hrrr still mirrors some of the runs that had the nice area of snow right along the CT coast...a very narrow band of 3-5"...probably thanks to strong low level temp gradient / convergence that'll set up there. that might be another area to watch for something overperforming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 those heavier echoes are due to bright banding Yep. We have "bouncy" flakes here too that look like they went thru a warm layer before re freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Kevin ... did you hack into KTAN/NWS website and write the near-term AFD again ....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 hrrr still mirrors some of the runs that had the nice area of snow right along the CT coast...a very narrow band of 3-5"...probably thanks to strong low level temp gradient / convergence that'll set up there. that might be another area to watch for something overperforming Holla! I'll keep you posted...but my expectations are maybe 2" additional snowfall at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlue Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Yes, This would do it, I'm not busting up a-arms in this Same here. I put .6 miles on Sunday tho! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 hrrr still mirrors some of the runs that had the nice area of snow right along the CT coast...a very narrow band of 3-5"...probably thanks to strong low level temp gradient / convergence that'll set up there. that might be another area to watch for something overperforming here's my hope for tonight...most of this year the s/w's have trended stronger. If we can get the last one to wind up a smidge better this band ends up over you or maybe even me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 scooter ran the euro out of Bryce's nursey this morning. 5" right over his head...most anywhere. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 scooter ran the euro out of Bryce's nursey this morning. 5" right over his head...most anywhere. LOL We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 stuff in PA is really blossoming by Allentown...reports of 1/8 vis in thread ..... but either way it's very solid returns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 also what is that crap in KY and Southern WV ...it really training/dumping in the mountain of S west Virginia is that with second S.W ? the reason I ask is I wonder it has a "feed" into that stuff developing SE of Allentown ... on radar you can see it sort of stream across S-C WV and into S-Cent. VA and then ENE into Baltimore and se toward Dover, DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Same here. I put .6 miles on Sunday tho! Brap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlue Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Brap! It wont be long now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 One other thing that interests me with the models.... The Euro later tonight into early morning has -4 to -6ish air at 8h running over the mild water...NNE become NNW flow that's pretty well aligned down to the surface. There could be a nice band of snow under that particularly if we could ever get the 8h to close off a smidge earlier and get some moisture in from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 One other thing that interests me with the models.... The Euro later tonight into early morning has -4 to -6ish air at 8h running over the mild water...NNE become NNW flow that's pretty well aligned down to the surface. There could be a nice band of snow under that particularly if we could ever get the 8h to close off a smidge earlier and get some moisture in from the SW. Winston you see that feed from KY across WV across VA into SE DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Winston you see that feed from KY across WV across VA into SE DE Yeah...models still struggling with the extent of that moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 mid 30's to NE side of L.I now.....Block island 32....upper 20's lurkin just off SE ct shoreline .....gradient set up later this afternoon will be strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 WPC Model Dico. minus 12z Euro. MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1155 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2013VALID DEC 17/1200 UTC THRU DEC 21/0000 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST......AN EVALUATION OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS ALONG WITH PRELIMINARYPREFERENCES/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 12ZNAM/GFS DEEMED SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT THEIR FORECASTS....UPPER TROF BECOMING NEGATIVELY-TILTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BYEARLY WEDNESDAY......RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING JUST OFFSHORE OF NEWENGLAND...PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET...WEIGHTEDMORE HEAVILY TOWARD THE ECMWFFORECAST CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGEA LONGWAVE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ISFORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE EVENTUALLY BECOMINGNEGATIVELY-TILTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY 18/1200Z. AS THISOCCURS...A SURFACE WAVE WHICH WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM LONGISLAND IS EXPECTED TO RAPID STRENGTHEN AS IT CROSSES COASTAL UPPERNEW ENGLAND AND INTO NOVA SCOTIA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANALYZINGTHE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THEPLACEMENT OF THE MULTIPLE VORT MAXIMA TRACKING WITHIN THE BROADERSCALE UPPER TROF. THIS BECOMES EVIDENT BY AS EARLY AS 12 HOURSINTO THE FORECAST WITH THE IMPACTS EVENTUALLY AFFECTING THE TRACKOF THE SURFACE LOW. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCEWITH THIS DEEPENING LOW CENTER IS ITS PRESSURE WITH THE 12ZNAM/GFS AND 06Z GEFS/09Z SREF MEANS. CONSIDERING THE INDIVIDUALMODEL TRENDS...A MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE HAS GONE TO A WEAKERSURFACE SOLUTION RELATIVE TO THEIR PREVIOUS CYCLE. WITH THAT INMIND...WILL LEAN TOWARD A SOMEWHAT MORE CONSERVATIVE SOLUTIONWHICH WOULD BE MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET. ALITTLE MORE WEIGHTING WILL BE GIVEN TO THE ECMWF AS PREFER ITSHANDLING OVER THE GULF OF THE ST. LAWRENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Kinda looks like spring/summer training cells on radar on the back edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 snowshoe cam either fog or dumping http://www.snowshoemtn.com/live-cams.aspx 28F @4400' and AFD says snow levels lowering fwiw...sorta OT but sorta not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 fwiw...here's the hrrr again hitting that area along the S coast of CT and into RI. that's that heavy stuff south of LI being forced up and over the cold dome and that really tight thermo gradient that'll exist near there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 look at those returns ENE /NE of Baltimore ....jeesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 It's on folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 look at those returns ENE /NE of Baltimore ....jeesus Yeah, these returns are coming in rapid and strong. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Pretty sure that is the low center south of LI as evident by the rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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