earthlight Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 HRRR buying that second piece of energy as well. Playing a hot hand lately, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 GEFS certainly side with the op. Gefs are a nice hit. Coup of the early winter of flop. Euro should bend on squashing the first s/w if this is legit. All models are struggling this winter with the strength of s/ws. Weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Remember that storm in early January of last year that the GFS and GEFS blew up as a tucked in coastal 24-36 hours out? We still ended up getting a decent storm in se mass..but overall the GFS and the agreeable GEFS were out to lunch. Hopefully this isn't a repeat. Well they do agree in a very similar fashion this time. Just need to see what the euro does...what you don't want is this to be the climax and the 6z and 12z runs back down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Just figured I would post this here, (i know it's not the right place), are there any basic sites you guys know of that do a good job explaining the models for events like this? I wasn't able to find any basic info on the forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Well I'm out. Hopefully the GFS is correct, but I still question the aggressiveness of the model. No doubt it will snow and probably a moderate snow event for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Well I'm out. Hopefully the GFS is correct, but I still question the aggressiveness of the model. No doubt it will snow and probably a moderate snow event for some areas. Sounds good. If we're throwing flags out, meaning we'll have to take 3-4" over 6"+, I'll take that concession. Should be fun to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Just figured I would post this here, (i know it's not the right place), are there any basic sites you guys know of that do a good job explaining the models for events like this? I wasn't able to find any basic info on the forums. Try surfing here. http://www.comet.ucar.edu/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Well I'm out. Hopefully the GFS is correct, but I still question the aggressiveness of the model. No doubt it will snow and probably a moderate snow event for some areas. Was thinking the same thing this could be the west goal post. One camp is totally wrong. Gfs has some support from the hrrr. Euro needs to give some ground. Watch the euro be even bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 HRRR buying that second piece of energy as well. Playing a hot hand lately, too.yes its been stellar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Was thinking the same thing this could be the west goal post. One camp is totally wrong. Gfs has some support from the hrrr. Euro needs to give some ground. Watch the euro be even bigger. Good to see you analyzing H5. Lets hope you bring your hot hand...2005 style back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The big picture says tight thermal gradient/strong baroclinicity (enhanced by snowcover) plus strong PVA equals rapid surface deepening. That's a powder keg. But the ingredients don't help if the non-GFS guidance is correct in tainting the baroclinic zone behind the 1st wave thereby preventing a second round of coastal cyclogenesis. Considering the short range disagreement here, if the GFS is picking up on something real, this could evolve right passed what the GFS is currently showing. Right now I think the good snows will be confined to EMA up into coastal ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 03z RPM not biting on the bigger solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I have to get from MHT to Keene at 930pm tomorrow. Little worried just because these systems can easily become over-performers. All it takes is a little sharper shortwave initially, and things take off on the coast quickly. GFS is definitely the sharpest, because it doesn't have that lead impulse at all, for some reason. NAM uses the lead impulse in a big way, but QPF bias applies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Euro got a little better, but still nothing like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Euro got a little better, but still nothing like the GFS. so what are your thoughts on totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 so what are your thoughts on totals? I'd still go 2-4" for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I'd still go 2-4" for you. Cool, should make for an interesting day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 6z nam hanging on to lead spoiler impulse... also dryer than 0z nam we're within 18 hours and gfs on it's own, 2-4" Boston metro looks safe oth... 3z srefs vs. 21z ticked up 0.5" probs to much of EMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Im biting on a screwgie , watch the 6z gfs , say bye bye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 0z 4km btv wrf has decent snows breaking out e mass around 12-130 (sw-ne) then a heavy period for eastern areas inside 495 (w extent) n to nh border/95 from 3-8:30 pm period. Drops.5-.7 precip for s shore and bos metro west and metro north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 if only the 6z gfs was right for here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 06Z GFS amps QPF up even more, spread wise at least over E MA and decreases QPF over ME coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 gfs would be warning snows for alot of us away from the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Bouchard 5-8" for E MA. I'm not buying that. http://www1.whdh.com/weather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 the new map from BOX has alot of us in the 4 to 6 range http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php Bouchard 5-8" for E MA. I'm not buying that. http://www1.whdh.com/weather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 the new map from BOX has alot of us in the 4 to 6 range http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php I buy that over what Bouchard has. I personally am leaning towards a 2-5" with spots of 6-7" N and W of coast (like Essex & Middlesex counties/S. NH/high elevated areas in MA interior like ORH). Cape/Islands C-2". I'm keeping this as basic as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 BOX going up Edit. Already mentioned. 4-6 for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Man we're all going to get a decent snowstorm out of this.. Nice trends as we close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 man what is GFS missing here... once again squelches the lead impulse and allows vortmax behind it to dominate cyclogenesis would love for it to be correct but I'm cautious... at h5 verification: 6z NAM is very close to 9z RAP at 15z Tuesday, 6z GFS looks on its own would toss GFS but 3z SREFs also ticked up, and this is so close to something bigger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 "C Radar Imagery Storm Total Snow Forecast Storm Total Snow Forecast Click to see WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE Probability 2 Inches of Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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