ROOSTA Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Oh ya baby...dig, dig,diggin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Jeez. Just.a bit more negetively tilted with the second s/w. Made the first one its b**ch, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 FOX had 4-7" from mby points ne.....thought that was a bit aggressive....I'd go to 2-5" right now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 There is nothing not to like if you are keeping expectations reasonable. Hopefullky this isn't something where the 00z gfs regresses after getting weenie hopes up. Yes I know that is a double negative. I try to avoid any expectations really. And w this one i think the only reasonable expectation that it will be now cast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 GFS is game on.....winner winner chicken dinner. I want a piece of that action. A good Prime Rib at McGrath err East Bay! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I try to avoid any expectations really. And w this one i think the only reasonable expectation that it will be now cast. cheer up ride the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 GFS has 0.5" from ORH-TOL on east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Completely nukes in the Gulf of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 We bang. Repeatedly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 GFS has 0.5" from ORH-TOL on east. HFD has a shot of beating the Sat night-Sunday event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Wish I could understand these models. I guess I jump on the GFS train? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 right off the bat 0Z GFS is waaay closer to h5 depiction on 3z 12/17 RAP than 0z/18z NAM... (and to Chrisrotary: HRRR/RAP discussion is just re: GFS vs. NAM verification... right now, NAM seems significantly off) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Well hopefully the euro is on board later. The first s/w initiates cyclogenesis, but the forcing is so strong from the second one that it sort of consolidates the low SE of the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 HFD has a shot of beating the Sat night-Sunday event Might have to adjust my 2-4'' zone to 3-5'' but I might just stick with the 2-4''. Not very often (probably never) have I composed a map and not made any adjustments at all lol. If anything I would perhaps expand my 4-6'' zone a tad further west into extreme NE CT border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Gfs is a funny evolution. Some gefs members have showed this I guess. Verbatim it's a long, drawn out event... Never particularly heavy back this way, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 Well hopefully the euro is on board later. The first s/w initiates cyclogenesis, but the forcing is so strong from the second one that it sort of consolidates the low SE of the Cape. I think its gonna be tough to tug all that baroclinicity back SW...but if it goes nuts enough, then it has a chance. If that 2nd s/w is 'roided up enough and the first one is weak enough, then I'll believe it. Something tells me the mid-level dryslot will rip through fast and we'll be left with inverted torugh low level snow for several hours afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Wish I could understand these models. I guess I jump on the GFS train? Take a course in Synoptic Meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Completely nukes in the Gulf of Maine. I'm pretty useless most of the time now but I'm still okay with seeing a trend. Wasn't paying much attention to this one until this evening....flipping through todays' runs it's clear that first wave gets smashed by the diving big dog. I really like where this is going.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Take a course in Synoptic Meteorology. or just read the taggers thoughts....whatever costs less lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Weird break in the QPF panels, though -- it should have ripped in interior NE CT and Mass, but it has a kind of negative node there. Interesting. It even affects some eastern zones, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Weird break in the QPF panels, though -- it should have ripped in interior NE CT and Mass, but it has a kind of negative node there. Interesting. It even affects some eastern zones, too. Yeah qpf fields look a little odd. I dunno... Meh. I think outside of far eastern areas this has a model fantasy over reality look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 It's pretty scary trying to hope the gfs scored a coup w this and ditto w hrrr And rap 5H evolutions roll'd fwd. Just give me 3 inches mid day with good omega late pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I think its gonna be tough to tug all that baroclinicity back SW...but if it goes nuts enough, then it has a chance. If that 2nd s/w is 'roided up enough and the first one is weak enough, then I'll believe it. Something tells me the mid-level dryslot will rip through fast and we'll be left with inverted torugh low level snow for several hours afterward. It becomes almost mid level frontogenesis dominated. The good WAA from the CCB is more across Maine. I honestly don't know what to think. You usually gamble when you are relying on mid level synoptics to give you snow. I feel like this is something where it climaxes now on the GFS and the 06z and 12z runs come back down to reality, but maybe it's right. It wouldn't be the first time I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I'm pretty useless most of the time now but I'm still okay with seeing a trend. Wasn't paying much attention to this one until this evening....flipping through todays' runs it's clear that first wave gets smashed by the diving big dog. I really like where this is going.... I'm still a little uncertain with this. I'm intrigued for sure...but something seems off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I'm still a little uncertain with this. I'm intrigued for sure...but something seems off. IMO what's off is the final solution which comes overnight...a much more amped solution that matches the dynamics. The Euro probably won't bite yet...remember last night at 0z it was totally befuzzled and had a strung out east to west low before at least coming back to the first strike system. All the money is on the last horse in the race. I think the first one continues to get stomped out in later runs. It'll be great when this wraps up enough that I rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Postive trend continues. .50-.75 was just off deck last run, now EMA is squarely in it and .75-1" qfp just off deck. Signficant shift from just 24 hours ago. Downeast Maine might come up with 20"+. Like the dynamics, EMA always seems to do well with these late blooming Miller B's and artic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Holy crap, classic just classic run. Let's hope the Euro believes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Holy crap, classic just classic run. Let's hope the Euro believes. Euro...meh. It was one of the last to come far NW on this last one...one of the last to get on board with that early November snow...one of the last to get on board with this one. Not having a Euro winter so far. Unless the GFS and NAM have gotten into the crack again I like where this is going. NAM should have been better but it's the NAM. The first low isn't going to get away or even be much of anything. The next s/w is basically negative and takes over. Great situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Everything the GFS shows is driven by that lead s/w geting shredded. Upstream ridging has been trending stronger with every run also lending to the trough digging more. Interesting evolution to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Harv going 4-6" pretty much region wide from NE CT northeastward. 2-4" SEMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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